Top Fantasy Keepers – Examining Jake Meyers

Welcome back for another edition of Top Fantasy Keepers.

Unlike past weeks, this week I am going to focus on only one player – Jake Meyers of the Houston Astros.

When it comes to the top fantasy keepers, it is easy to fall in love with the top prospects. Tons of experts have done the work of compiling the top prospect lists, which allows us to:

• Look through all the lists
• Come up with our own fancy formulas to weigh all of the prospects on all the lists
• Create our own special rankings system and make us feel really smart

But not all of the top prospects become top players. Sometimes, those drafted in rounds 10, 11 or later are the players who become top fantasy keepers.

Jake Meyers may be one of those players. He never cracked any of the Top 100 Prospects lists. Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus never deemed him talented enough to list him with the likes of Michael Baez, Luiz Gohara or Estevan Florial. Or how about Heliot Ramos, Willie Calhoun and Kolby Allard. Those are six former Top 100 prospects – and how well have they done in the majors?

Sometimes the mid-round draft choice becomes the better player and the better fantasy keeper than a top prospect. Is Jake Meyers one of those players? Let’s take a look.

Jake Meyers

Meyers worked his way through the Houston system after being drafted in the 13th round of the 2017 draft out of Nebraska. During his three years as a Cornhusker, Meyers was a two-way player. At the plate, he compiled a career slash line of .307/.419/.398 and stole 31 bases but hit only three homers. As a pitcher, he went 17-4 with one save in 169 innings of work with a 2.88 ERA and 1.077 WHIP.

A Hitter, Not A Pitcher

While Meyers put up good numbers as a pitcher, the Astros drafted him as a hitter thanks to his outstanding skills as a center fielder. His strength has always been his defensive skill set, but he has improved as a hitter since leaving Nebraska. In his first full professional season, Meyers slashed .278/.363/.423 with eight homers, 46 RBI and 16 steals in 121 games at Class A and High-A.

In 2019, Meyers put up similar numbers at High A and Double-A, hitting nine home runs and driving in 47 with 12 steals in 111 games, though his slash line dipped to .249/.329/.395. While not playing in 2020 due to COVID wiping out the minor league season, Meyers made adjustments to his swing at the alternate training site and added additional, and the results were easy to see at Triple-A in 2021.

In 68 games, Meyers slashed .343/.408/.598 with 16 home runs, 51 RBI and 10 steals. With George Springer moving on to Toronto as a free agent ahead of the 2021 season, the Astros turned to Myles Straw to man center field. But he was sent to Cleveland at the trade deadline, creating a void in center field. Meyers’ production at Triple-A was one reason the Astros felt they could trade Straw and recall Meyers to the parent club. After joining the Astros, he proceeded to slash .260/.323/.438 with six homers and 28 RBI in 49 games with the Astros.

Hitting the Field in 2022

Meyers was the starting center fielder for the Astros in the postseason last year. However, he slammed into the wall during a Division Series game against the White Sox, leading to offseason shoulder surgery and a delayed start to the 2022 campaign. But since his return to the lineup, Meyers has been a spark at a position that lacked production at the plate for Houston. In his first 13 games, Meyers is slashing .313/.320/458 with a home run and an impressive 10 RBI.

While he has power to all fields, as his 2021 spray chart shows, Meyers is more of a line-drive hitter who hits the ball between the gaps. During his brief career, he has a batted ball percentage of 61.9% to center field, 21.6% to left field, and 16.4% to right field. He is pulling the ball a bit more this season, but his spray chart from 2021 shows his ability to hit to all fields.

The Cons

There are some drawbacks to Meyers’ game – his high strikeout percentage and low walk rate being the two biggest at the plate. Meyers has a career 30.1% strikeout percent, way above the MLB average of 22.9%. If Meyers was a massive home run hitter, that strikeout rate would be easier to swallow. He combines that strikeout rate with a low walk rate of 5.2% compared to the MLB average of 8.6%.

Additionally, while Meyers has a line drive percentage of 29.9% (MLB average is 23.7%), he has a ground ball rate of 45.5%, above the average of 42.7%. To really maximize his ability at the plate, he needs to reduce that ground ball percentage.

The Verdict

At the age of 26, Meyers is not likely to become a star for the Astros or any other team. But no one has a fantasy team that consists of nothing of stars unless they found all the dumb trading partners in their league to somehow stack their lineup. In reality, every team wins not just because of the stars they have on their team, but also due to solid secondary players.

Meyers is that solid secondary player – the kind of player that can help you win, especially in deep leagues. While his strikeout percentage is high, he is not a free swinger as his career chase rate of 28.2% is right in line with the MLB average.

Through his first 62 games in the majors, Meyers has 38 RBI. Projected over a full 162 games season, Meyers would have 18 homers and 99 RBI with a .273/.322/.443 slash line. For a 13th round draft choice, that is pretty solid production, especially in the RBI department. He likely won’t keep the RBI rate going, but he will get plenty of chances to drive in runs hitting seventh in an Astros lineup that is as deep as it is. For his career, Meyers has a 1.7 WAR and wRC+ of 113.

Meyers can hit for some power, steal some bases for you and certainly collect RBIs. He is certainly worthy of being added to your roster this season and I would argue he makes a great under-the-radar keeper.