Top 100 Starting Pitchers, Week 5: Santa Maria, Faria

Do you enjoy lists that go all the way to 100?! Well aren’t you in for a treat! I was pretty excited when I was tasked with compiling this list, and my enthusiasm continued until I reached about the SP50 mark. It was about that time my enthusiasm shifted to malaise, which then morphed into a legitimately queasy feeling as I tumbled down into the 80’s. You’re getting into a lot of interchangeable parts down at the bottom, and one particularly good or bad start could vault one of those bottom-dwellers a good 10 spots up or down. As the season rolls on I’ll include the previous week’s ranking to give you an idea of how the pitcher is trending. Since this serves as my first rankings list, however, I’ll begin with some guys I wound up ranking either higher or lower than I had anticipated going into it.

Ranked Higher Than I Anticipated…

• Rick Porcello, BOS (SP26) – I’ve been a proponent of Porcello all season, but I didn’t think I’d have him just outside the top 25. There doesn’t seem to be many chinks in the armor here. He always gives you a lot of innings, he consistently gives you excellent walk rates (0.83 WHIP), and his strikeouts are even up a bit (8.82 K/9). He’s upped his slider usage and is limiting hard contact (24.4%) with plenty of grounders (51.7% GB%). Put him on one of the best teams in the AL and you’ve got a shot at another 20 win season as well. The only thing keeping him from being a fantasy ace is the strikeout rate.
• Nick Pivetta, PHI (SP36) – Much has been covered already on Pivetta, so I’ll keep it brief. His curveball has ticked up in a big way thanks to some help from teammate Aaron Nola, and his command has taken a step forward as well. He now has two strong breaking pitches (curveball/slider) to pair with his heater, making him a solid SP3 for me moving forward.
• Miles Mikolas, STL (SP45) – I’m not exactly sending Mikolas to the moon at SP45, but after his disastrous spring I had written him off entirely. Yeah, yeah, don’t pay attention to spring training stats, blah blah. I typically don’t, but when you have a guy coming from overseas who was terrible the last time we saw him pitch in the majors back in 2014 (5.97 K/9, 6.44 ERA) you have to get nervous when he gets shelled. Mikolas has displayed terrific command through five starts, with a microscopic 0.55 BB/9. The strikeout rate is merely average, but a 39.5% O-swing% is encouraging that he can at least sustain the 7.36 K/9.
• Marco Gonzales, SEA (SP79) – Hard not to love a guy with a 5.56 ERA, amiright?! I could not have had less interest in Gonzales heading into the season, and the results aren’t there just yet. However, a 10.72 K/9 and 1.59 BB/9 through five starts has my attention. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are all in the mid-2’s. Even with hard regression from all of those early season numbers, it’s difficult to imagine him not being relevant in most mixed leagues soon enough.

Ranked Lower Than I Anticipated…

• Luis Castillo, CIN (SP40) – I was about as into Castillo as anyone heading into the season, so if you’re feeling snakebitten, then buddy, I’m right there with you. His fastball is down two ticks from 2017, his walk rate is through the roof (4.08 BB/9), his strikeout rate is down over 2 K/9, and oh yeah…there’s that 7.85 ERA. Like my Scandinavian grandparents would say…uff da. It’s fair to cut bait in very shallow leagues while he struggles, but there is hope for a rebound. Most of his plate discipline metrics are actually better than last year, indicating that both his strikeout and walk rates should improve. He might be hiding an injury, so it’s risky business if you buy low, but I’d still do it in a deeper league.
• Jake Faria, TB (SP 73) – Santa Maria, where art thou Faria?! You were so good last year! Faria debuted well last year and displayed decent control after struggling with it throughout the minors, but through his first five starts he has regressed in a big way. He’s also on a pretty bad team that limits his win potential, and he has allowed a whopping 46.9% hard contact rate that doesn’t indicate better things are coming. He has also turned into an extreme fly ball pitcher, which scares the hell out of me in the AL East. It’s safe to look for better options.

On to the Top 100 Pitchers!

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken