The xFiles: Circle Of Distrust

It’s hard to believe it’s already early August. Seems like only yesterday that we got together with league mates to draft what we hoped would be a championship-caliber teams. Now, we’re just a few short weeks away from the playoffs.

If you’re currently in the playoff mix, odds are you’ve ridden a few arms to get there, some more surprising than others. In the process, you’ve likely developed trust with some of those guys.

I know in my leagues, I have my pitchers I trust and those that I’m reluctant to start in big matchups and against good teams.

I try not to get too attached to pitchers as I build out my roster throughout the season and establish what I call a “circle of trust” within my rotation. Just like in MLB, you want a rotation of arms you can trust in the playoffs. Otherwise, unless your pitching categories favor stat accumulation (QS, wins, K’s, Saves), you’re a shellacking away from agonizing defeat.

Some starters are obvious “circle of trust” guys — Skubal, Skenes, Crochet, and maybe 20-25 others who obviously aren’t in that tier but are still very good.

Outside of that group, we all have our guys. Pitchers we like and trust for one reason or another. In many cases, they helped us get where we are. That’s why we trust them.

With the playoffs on our doorstep and some leagues still staring down a trade deadline, I’ve briefly profiled two high-profile starters with sub-4.00 ERAs who are in my “circle of DIStrust”. These are starters many have relied on this season, who have likely contributed to the success of many teams. But for a number of reasons, I don’t trust them, and I’ll share why below.

Do what you will with this information. If you can still trade these players, I would consider it. If you can’t, I would tread lightly in big matchups, especially when they face stronger lineups.

Here are two high-profile starters with sub-4.00 ERAs who make up my “circle of distrust”:

Gavin Williams, SP CLE

I know, I know. Williams is on a roll right now. He has a 3.17 ERA, has given up 4 runs total his last four starts, and took a no-hitter into the 9th his last time out. He’s definitely trending in a positive direction, and truth be told, there is a chance he keeps it up. Talent has never been an issue for Williams. What has been an issue, and why he’s made my “circle of distrust”, is his lack of durability and consistency.

Williams has already thrown a career high 125 innings this season. He threw just over 90 last season between the big leagues and minors. I’m not sure if the Guardians intend to limit his innings, but there’s a chance he’ll either run into innings management or fatigue down the stretch when you need him most. At a minimum, they’re pushing their luck if they intend to push him well beyond 150 innings (Williams has missed time with elbow, knee, and blister issues in the past).

In terms of consistency, even in Williams’ no-hit bid, he walked 4 batters. For the season, his walk rate remains near 5 BB/9, even with his recent dominant stretch. Has he truly turned the corner and put the walks behind him? I wouldn’t bet on it. This is a pitcher who has struggled to throw strikes this season and who has gotten absolutely pounded by RHH (.356 wOBA against).

Sure, there’s a chance Williams has finally turned the corner. Many predicted he would breakout this season. Maybe the breakout is finally here? Personally, I’d look to take advantage of the hot stretch and trade him if I still could. If not, hope for the best and maybe consider sitting him against strong, righty dominant lineups until he puts 2-3 more quality starts behind him.

Andrew Abbott, SP CIN

While Gavin Williams has been up-and-down, Abbott has been remarkably consistent all season, and to date, he is sporting a sparkling 2.34 ERA. That’s good for top 5 in the league among starting pitchers who have thrown over 100 innings this season. If anyone is likely to have established trust with fantasy managers, it’s Abbott.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure the trust is fully warranted. Abbott has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season. His .254 BABIP, 84.2% Left On Base (LOB) percentage, and 8.0% HR/FB rate all speak to that, especially when you consider Abbott is 1) an extreme fly ball pitcher who pitches half his games in a bandbox, and 2) his Stuff+ and Pitching+ numbers are both below league average.

He’s got strong command and doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, both of which are skills that can allow a pitcher with less than dominant stuff to succeed. But to this elite level?

Abbott has a 4.44 xFIP and 4.38 SIERA. There are pitchers who can outperform those metrics, and Abbott fits the profile, but more in the high 3 ERA range than low 2. He’s more solid than great, and if the opportunity exists to move him in a favorable deal, I would certainly jump at it. In fact, I did recently in one of my big dynasty leagues. If your league’s deadline has already passed, you can either continue to ride the hot hand or be careful with Abbott against strong lineups at home. While his ERA is better at home, his wOBA and xFIP are significantly worse.