Our first prospect profile for the 2015 season will take a closer look at Orioles outfielder Dariel Alvarez. I mentioned him as an “under the radar” prospect on this week’s podcast, so it was a logical place to start. There are a few different directions dynasty leaguers can go with their farms, but most seem to fall in love with the high upside prospects whose ceilings trump their distant ETAs (I’m one of them). These kinds of prospects make sense when you only have a few farm slots to fill. Might as well use those slots for the very best prospects available, right? Then there are the leagues where it makes sense to include prospects who are a bit closer/safer, but who may not have the drool-inducing tools. Alvarez probably falls into the latter category. In leagues with larger farms or where depth is important, I think the 26-year-old outfielder should be given a look. He may even have stretches of value in 2015 redraft leagues depending on how the Orioles’ outfield shakes out this year.
| 2015 Prospect List | Ranking |
|---|---|
| Razzball | #4 |
| Baseball America | #5 |
| Baseball Prospectus | NR |
| Fangraphs | #19 |
Minor League Statistics
| Year | Age | Level | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB% | K% | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 24 | Rk/A+/AA | 83 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 4.8% | 13.3% | 1 | 2 | .342 | .373 | .570 |
| 2014 | 25 | AA/AAA | 465 | 58 | 138 | 22 | 4 | 9 | 60 | 7.1% | 11.8% | 9 | 5 | .325 | .375 | .459 |
There are a couple of things happening here that make Alvarez an interesting prospect to talk about. One is the relatively wide range of rankings in this year’s traditional preseason lists, with my own fantasy-skewed list giving him the most generous ranking of the four. The other is the fact that he is a Cuban import, so on top of a missing year of stats in 2012, we have some Series Nacional data to go off of and then just about 500 plate appearances here in the States. In other words, he’s still kind of a puzzle even though he is already 26. In Cuba, Alvarez put up his best numbers as a 21-year-old back in 2010, slashing .363/.404/.613 with 20 homers in just 376 plate appearances. In the last couple of years here, Alvarez has shown less pop but the same ability to post a high batting average and on-base percentage. That carried over into 2015 spring training, where he hit an impressive .343/.395/.600 with two homers before getting sent to Triple-A Norfolk.
Alvarez has an aggressive approach but makes good contact, which explains the lower walk rates. He’ll get a longer look in Triple-A this year with the Orioles’ signing of Travis Snider, but could see time in the majors at some point in 2015 with Alejandro De Aza, David Lough, and Delmon Young the other current options. Alvarez is getting reps in both center and right field, but probably ends up as a corner outfielder given the presence of Adam Jones and Alvarez’s average speed. He does have a double-plus tool in his arm, making him an asset in left or right field. In fantasy we’re more concerned with his bat, and I like the average and power he’s shown as well as his ability to chip in a few steals. I could see a .280 average with around 15-18 home runs in Alvarez once he finds a home in the Baltimore outfield. A nice hitter’s park like Camden Yards is also a factor – his power to all fields should play well there.
What’s the Move?
In leagues of 16 teams or deeper, I’m rostering Alvarez as a minor league stash in hopes that he helps my team somewhat this year and earns a starting outfield gig in 2016. In AL-only leagues or deep mixed redraft formats, I’m watching him closely for a possible 2nd half call-up to the big club in 2015. I’d pursue Alvarez more aggressively in OBP formats based on his minor league numbers in that category. At 26 he pretty much is what he is, so a rebuilding squad may want to pass and go for somebody with more upside, while a “win-now” squad may want him for depth.
