Pete Crow-Armstrong: Up-And-Coming Dynasty Player

If you have been a regular reader of this series, then you know how I love to try to find the hidden up-and-coming dynasty gems during the season. But sometimes you have to go for the low hanging fruit and highlight a player who is showing the skills that many expected of him since becoming a professional.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a former Top 100 prospect, entering the 2024 season ranked as the 18th best prospect by Baseball America, 16th by MLB, and 20th by Baseball Prospectus.

After a cup of coffee with the Cubs in 2023, Crow-Armstrong appeared in 123 games last season, but he had an up-and-down season. During the first half of the season, Crow-Armstrong slashed .203/.253/.329 with three homers, 17 RBI, and 17 steals in 60 games (46 starts). Over the second half, however, Crow-Armstrong started to figure things out, slashing .262/.310/.425 with seven home runs, 30 RB,I and 10 steals in 63 games, all starts.

Through the first month of this season, it appears Crow-Armstrong is carrying over what he did during the second half of last season, making him a solid Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.

Let’s dive in and take a look at Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Career Statistics

The Beginning

Pete Crow-Armstrong was one of the top high school prospects in 2019, leading him to be drafted in the first round by the New York Mets with the 19th overall pick. The left-hander then signed for more than $3,300,000, but his professional debut didn’t come until 2021 thanks to Crow-Armstrong signing late and then having the 2020 minor league season wiped out due to COVID.

When he finally hit the field in 2021, his season didn’t last long as he played in only six games after suffering a torn labrum while running the bases. Two months later, the Mets traded Crow-Armstrong to the Cubs as part of the Javier Baez trade.

All he has done since joining the Cubs is become one of the best fielders in the game, add power at the plate, and appear in two Futures Games (2022 and 2023).

The Tools

• Hit

When Pete Crow-Armstrong signed with the Mets, he was more inclined to take advantage of his quick stroke to lace line drives to all fields. But the Cubs saw Crow-Armstrong’s power potential and made a few adjustments to his swing. The results led to a player who displayed both a solid hit tool in the minors as well as power. He finished his minor league career with a slash line of .296/.368/.515.

But some small warts in his minor league career carried over to the start of his major league career. In the minors, he had a 24% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate. The walk right is solid, but the strikeouts were a minor concern. In his rookie season, Crow-Armstrong didn’t work a lot of walks, finishing with a 5.1% walk rate, but his strikeout rate was 23.9%, just a little more than one percent higher than the MLB average.

Entering Friday, he has seen his batting average jump nearly 30 points over last season. But his OBP has seen an increase of only 19 points as Crow-Armstrong’s walk rate has decreased even more, currently sitting at 4.5%. For Crow-Armstrong to really take advantage of all his tools, he needs to increase his walk rate.

The good news, however, is that his strikeout rate has decreased to 20.9% so far. And while Crow-Armstrong is tapping into his power, he is not selling out and trying to pull everything. Last year, his pull percentage was 35.1%, and his opposite field percentage was 14.7%. This year, those numbers are 35.4% and 17.2%.

• Power

As I said earlier, the Cubs saw the power potential in Pete Crow-Armstrong, and the tweaks they made showed up in the minors. He hit 16 homers in 101 games in 2022 and then knocked 20 over the fence in 107 games in 2023. But that power didn’t really show up last season for Crow-Armstrong. He finished the season with an 84.6 mph Average EV with a 36.8% Hard-Hit%. That created a 2.4% home run rate.

This season has seen Crow-Armstrong improve greatly in those areas. His average EV is up to 86.4 mph, though that is still below the MLB average. He has increased his Hard-Hit% to 41.4% and his fly ball rate has increased from 29.8% to 36.4% this season. The result is a 4.5% home run rate, way above the MLB average of 3.1%.

• Speed

This is the area that should have you really excited. Crow-Armstrong is one of the best base runners in the majors. His 30.0 mph sprint speed ranks in the 99th percentile. And that speed carries over on the field. In the minors, he stole 81 bases in 240 career games and was caught only 24 times. Quick math tells you that is a 77% success rate, an acceptable number.

This year, PCA has done even better on the base paths. His 12 steals ranks second in the majors, and he has only been thrown out once this year.

The Verdict

Lots of players have been able to show improvement during April compared to what they did last year. But Pete Crow-Armstrong should be able to continue along this path and not regress. That is because the improvement isn’t just in one area. It is across the board.

In 2024, his xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG ranked in the 11th, 13th, and 27th percentile. This season, he ranks in the 60th, 65th, and 75th percentile. That is some vast improvement. Last season, he ranked in the 45th percentile in Barrel% while his Hard-Hit% was in the 30th percentile, Bat Speed was in the 26th percentile, and his Squared Up% was in the 38th percentile. This year, those percentile ranks are 71st, 47th, 44th, and 68th.

Yes, he is still below the major league average in some of those metrics, but he has still improved across the board, and there is no reason to think Crow-Armstrong won’t continue to improve. Right now, he is on a pace of 116 runs scored, 30 homers, 106 RBI, and 61 steals. Will he remain on that pace – probably not in the RBI and runs scored department, but the 30 homers are not a pipedream, and he can certainly steal 60-plus bases.

Crow-Armstrong is not sitting on the waiver wire in many leagues. But if you have a chance to acquire him in a trade, then jump on it. If you already have Crow-Armstrong, then hold on to him unless your trading partner is offering a host of players.

Thanks for reading, and come back again next week.