Click HERE. Now sing this:
Hello, it’s me. I was wondering if after all these years you’d draft me. To put the past aside. They say that time’s supposed to heal ya, but I ain’t done much hitting. Hello, are you still there? I’m in Los Angeles of Anaheim of Alhambra of Artesia dreaming about who I’m supposed to be. When I was younger and filled with potential. I’ve forgotten how it felt before the fantasy world threw me in the trash. There’s such a difference between what I was and what I am now. Hello from the other side.
Jo Adell was the No. 10 overall pick by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Alhambra of Artesia back in 2017. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, and explosive raw power, the hype had Flava Flav yelling YEAH BOYEEEEEE! I STILL GOTTA JOB. But baseballs are hard. Hitting one? Probably one of the most difficult things to do in all of professional sports. Adell was given four chances to prove himself in the majors, but he was unable to stick each time. Is the fifth time a charm?
In 59 plate appearances this season, Adell is slashing .321/.373/.623 with four home runs and five stolen bases. The walk rate is 5.1%, strikeout rate is 23.7% and the ISO is .302. As Grey wrote in the recap on Monday, “Seven was Adell’s lucky number, as in seven posts, as in post-post-post-post-post-post-post-hype sleeper and he’s finally busting out.”
Let’s dig in.
Early in his minor league career, the strikeout rate was in the low-20s while the walk rate had a wide range from 5 to 10 percent. The power was evident right away, though, as the ISO was in the .250 to .280 range.
Once he got to the majors, the power was not able to manifest because he wasn’t able to make contact. In 2020, the strikeout rate ballooned to 41.7% in 132 plate appearances. The following season, Adell showed improvement, lowering the strikeout rate to 22.9% while posting a .162 ISO in 140 plate appearances. Did he figure it out and was about to be Elon Musk’d into the stratosphere? As my Russian comrades say, Nyet!!!
In 2022, the strikeout rate spiked to 37.5% in 285 plate appearances then to 40.3% in 62 plate appearances the following season. At least the ISO was .241, the first time over .200 in the majors.
So, what’s changed for this season and is it sustainable?
The obvious number is the BABIP, which is .361. During his early minor league career, Adell maintained a high BABIP so it’s not out of the norm.
That Statcast data are mostly in-line with his career so far. The number that jumps out is the barrel rate. At 12.5%, it’s the first time in double-digits. That makes sense because he’s striking out less, which means making more contact, so it’s encouraging that the contact is of higher quality.
The line drive rate is 35%, well above the 20% mark he was posting prior. Fewer fly balls but fewer ground balls as well. The HR/FB rate is 33.3%, which would place him second in MLB if he qualified. While that kind of prowess may be unsustainable, Adell was posting high-20 percent marks previously, so it’s not completely out of the question.
Looking at the plate discipline numbers, the chase rate remains the same, but he’s swinging at fewer pitches and the swinging strike rate is down to 12.8%, from the 17-18% range. The contact rates have all increased, with a huge jump in contact rate outside the zone.
Adell had a decent year in 2021, slashing .246/.295/.408 with a 22.9% strikeout rate and .162 ISO in 140 plate appearances. A big key to the success was that he was successful against four-seam fastballs, batting .261 and striking out only 20% against the pitch. In every other season, he batted below .200 against the pitch and struck out over 40%. In 2024? He’s batting .250 against four-seam fastball with a 13.3% strikeout rate. The sample size is itty bitty at 15 plate appearances, but it’s a good sign regardless.
Going into this endeavor, I was inclined to fade Adell’s fast start, but the more I dug in, I’m kind of buying into it. The sample size is small, and pitchers will adjust, but I feel that Adell is more comfortable now after the four years of trials and tribulations. The power has always been real and he’s in the 91st percentile in sprint speed, and those power/speed guys are difficult to come by. I think what is most appealing to me is the more patient approach and ability to tweak his swing for pitches outside the zone.
