Mick Abel: Up-And-Coming Dynasty Player

After a one-start audition for the Philadelphia Phillies in May, Mick Abel was recalled from the minors earlier this month and inserted into the starting rotation.

For fantasy owners who are starving for starting pitching, which means everyone, Mick Abel is an interesting pitcher. He has great tools, but he hasn’t really been able to put those tools together to produce a dominant season. Over five minor league seasons, Abel is 23-24 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

But as I stated above, he has a lot of nice tools in his toolbox, including a 96 mph fastball. So let’s dive in and see why Mick Abel is an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.

Career Statistics

Road to the Show

Selected by the Phillies with the 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Abel attracted the Phillies’ attention based on what they saw of Abel during the 2019 summer showcase season, as his senior season was wiped out due to COVID. What stood out to them was his 6-foot-5 frame and a major league ready fastball.

A shoulder issue limited Abel to 44.2 innings of work in 2021. But he climbed from High-A to Double A in 2022, and the following season he went from Double-A to Triple-A before spending all of 2024 at Triple-A.

At every stop, Abel has done one thing very well – strike out opposing hitters. But there has also been a downside to his game at every stop – lack of command. Command issues have haunted him, and last year was a total disaster as he posted a 6.46 ERA and 1.81 WHIP – a reason why he dropped from the No. 2 prospect in the Phillies system to No. 8 (according to MLB Pipeline).

But the Phillies have been patient with him as he was one of the younger pitchers in the International League, and now he is a member of Philadelphia’s starting rotation and is showing he belongs.

The Tools

• Fastballs

The four-seam fastball is what got Mick Abel drafted, and it is the pitch that has led him to the majors. He averages 96 mph on the pitch but can add a little extra when needed, touching 98 at times. With the Phillies, he has thrown that pitch 42% of the time, so while it is his most used pitch, he has not been relying on it.

When he does throw it, it has been a solid pitch as opponents have only a .211 batting average against with a .321 xBA, .368 SLG, and .564 xSLG. What is interesting is while he has good hop on the pitch, it is generating only a 24% Whiff% right now with four strikeouts in 21 plate appearances.

Abel also throws a sinker 16% of the time, which comes in more against right-handed hitters at nearly the same velocity as his four seamer. But through his first three starts, the pitch has not generated a lot of success yet as hitters have a .500 average and .917 SLG against the pitch with one strikeout over 13 plate appearances.

• Curve

Depending on the year, the curve has been Abel’s best secondary pitch and the slider at other times. Through his first three starts, Abel has been relying on his curve more, and the results have been fantastic.

Opposing hitters have a .067 average and .267 SLG against the pitch and have struck out eight times in 15 plate appearances, helping lead to a 44% Whiff% against the pitch. Not only does the pitch have great movement down and away from righties, but it comes in nearly 14 mph slower to really get hitters off balance.

• Slider and Change

Right now, I would say Abel’s slider is a work in progress. It has been really sharp at times in the past, but it has below average horizontal break, though it does have good drop. He is throwing it only 14% of the time, so it is not a pitch he is relying on.

The changeup is a pitch that, right now, is just for show. He has thrown it only 5% of the time. It may be a pitch he develops over time, but he is just as likely to ditch it and focus on his two fastballs, the curve, and the slider.

The Verdict

The good news for Mick Abel is he has the stuff to be a frontline starter. Entering this season, he has never struck out fewer than 9.7 hitters per nine innings. His four seamer is up there when it comes to velocity, and the sinker will likely improve as he learns to master it more.

But the fear with Abel is his command. Walks have always been an issue with him.

A Mixed Bag

He had an outstanding MLB debut on May 18 when he was brought up to make one start. In six innings of work, he allowed only five hits to go with nine strikeouts. Of the 84 pitches he threw, 62 were strikes (74%), and he produced 16 swinging strikes (19%).

But his last two starts have been a mixed bag. On June 4 at Toronto he went 5.1 innings and allowed only one run on three hits with no walks. But he also struck out only two batters as only 67% of his 78 pitches were thrown for strikes, and he produced only 10 swings and misses (13%). His last start came on Tuesday, saw him last only four innings as he allowed three runs on six hits and three walks to go with three strikeouts.

He needed 89 pitches to get through those 4.1 innings as his strike percentage was only 63%, though he did induce 16 swings and misses (18%).

If you are in need of pitching (and aren’t we all), Mick Abel is a solid target to go after. If you are relying on him right now to rack up great numbers, you may be disappointed. While his control has been better this season, he still struggles with it, and major league hitters are harder to attack than those in the International League.

But looking ahead, Abel is gaining valuable experience this season and has great upside. If, and that is the big question, if he starts to command his pitches, he has the ability to be no worse than a solid No. 2 pitcher. Yes, we love to hoard aces, but if you have a staff full of solid No. 2 pitchers, you will have a very good staff.

Right now, he is owned in only 37 percent of Yahoo leagues and 19 percent of ESPN leagues. Now is a perfect time to snatch him if you can.

Thanks for reading, and come back next week as I dive into a certain pitcher who made his MLB debut with the Milwaukee Brewers this past Thursday and only threw five shutout innings.