It’s Here! Baseball season is finally here!
For a lot of young players, now is their chance to establish themselves as major league players. Some just hope to have a solid career. Others have the talent to be core players for years to come. I am here to help identify those types of players.
That brings us to Matt Shaw, the rookie third baseman for the Chicago Cubs. Just two years ago Shaw was playing college baseball for Maryland. Now he is wearing a Cubs uniform as he has shot through the Chicago farm system.
So let’s take a look at Mr. Matt Shaw, an up-and-coming dynasty player.
STATISTICS
| LEVEL | YEAR | G | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA | 2021-23 | 167 | 172 | 53 | 166 | 37 | .320 | .413 | .623 |
| RK | A+ | AA | 2023 | 38 | 27 | 8 | 28 | 15 | .357 | .400 | .618 |
| AA | AAA | 2024 | 121 | 78 | 21 | 71 | 31 | .284 | .379 | .488 |
Before Turning Pro
Playing baseball in the Northeast is not conducive to being “discovered” in high school, so it is not surprising that Shaw went undrafted out of high school. But as soon as he put on the uniform for the Maryland Terrapins, he showed what he could do on the field. As a freshman, he slashed .332/.409/.544 with seven homers, 30 RBI, and seven steals in 45 games.
In 2022 he added power to his game as he hit 22 homers and drove in 67 runs while stealing 12 bases and slashing .290/.381/.604. That summer he won the Cape Cod MVP award and batting title with a .360 average.
In 2023 he dominated the competition enroute to winning Big Ten Conference Player of the Year after slashing .341/.445/.697 with 24 homers, 69 RBI, and 18 steals. He ended his career at Maryland as the all-time home run leader (53) and was selected as the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft by the Cubs.
No Slowing Down
After earning a signing bonus of nearly $5 million, Matt Shaw started his professional career on the Rookie ball level but only appeared in three games before heading to High-A. His stay on that level didn’t last long as he was there for a whopping total of 20 games before being promoted to Double-A where he finished the season and appeared in 15 games.
In 2024 he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 with 21 homers, 71 RBI, and 31 steals. He was one of four minor leaguers to log a 20/30 season.
When the Cubs traded incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker deal, it opened a spot on the infield for Shaw, who has played second base, shortstop, and third base in the minors. Shaw did not waste his opportunity as he was in the Opening Day lineup for the Cubs against the Dodgers in Japan and hit fifth.
The Tools
- Hitting
Obviously there is not a lot of data to go by at the MLB level when we talk about Matt Shaw. However, his college and minor league numbers give us a good indication of how good he will be at the plate. Shaw already has a good command of the strike zone. While at Maryland, he had an 11.6% walk rate and a 15.1% strikeout rate. And during his brief time in the minors, those ratios have basically carried over as he had a 10.3% walk rate and 17.3% strikeout rate down on the farm.
Last year at Triple-A Shaw had an O-Swing% (pitches swung at outside the strike zone) of 30.4%. But when he did leave the strike zone, he had a contact rate of 55.6%, showing solid bat control skills and not just flailing wildly at pitches. When Shaw swung at pitches inside the zone, he made contact 86.4% of the time, which is actually higher than the MLB average of 82%.
And Shaw does a very good job of using the entire field. He pulled the ball 36.2% of the time, went up the middle 22.6% and hit the ball to the opposite field 41.2% of the time last season in the minors.
- Power
It is obvious Shaw has power, and his ability to put the bat on the ball will allow him to access his power frequently. As I mentioned, he left Maryland as the all-time leader in home runs and in 159 career minor league games, he hit 29 homers in 600 at-bats. And there is a good chance he can hit for more power than he has shown.
In 2023 his ground ball percentage in the minors was 46.6%. He lowered that last year to 42%. Meanwhile, his line drive percentage increased from 18.8% to 20%. If Shaw improves on those numbers by just a percent or two, his home run total will see a nice little boost.
- Speed
This is where Matt Shaw can separate himself from a lot of other third basemen. I’m not saying he will be the next Jose Ramirez, but he can be a player in that mold if the Cubs allow him to run the bases. In college, Shaw was successful on 37 of his 46 stolen base attempts (80.4% success rate). In the minors, he was 46-for-60 (76.7%) on stolen base attempts. With the way the rules are written now, Shaw should see the same type of success stealing at the major league level.
The Verdict
Matt Shaw entered the season ranked as the 19th overall prospect by MLB Pipeline, 35th by Baseball America, and 26th by Baseball Prospectus. So I am obviously not going out on a limb right now by highlighting Shaw. If you are a seasoned dynasty player, you should know about him.
But if you are new to this format or your league doesn’t have a minor league system, then Shaw may be a player who is still available to add. In fact, he is currently rostered on only 45.6% of teams and in Yahoo leagues, he is rostered on 52% of teams. If you are in a Fantrax league, you will likely have to trade for him as he is rostered on 96 percent of teams.
Shaw’s biggest strength is his ability to hit. He should put up a solid slash line for years and years as he doesn’t strike out much and does a good job of barreling the ball. He has above average power, leading him to be a 22-25 homer candidate each season. That doesn’t put him in the class as many other third baseman, but it does put him in the same class as Alex Bregman, and no one is leaving him on the free agent market.
And then there is his speed. If Shaw sticks at third, his steals are going to give him a nice advantage over many of the other third basemen. I say “if” be cause Shaw does not have an outstanding arm. His strongest position has been second base, but the Cubs are set there with Nico Hoerner. And right now Dansby Swanson is manning shortstop, so Shaw’s home will be third base, where he should be more than adequate and not be forced to move elsewhere.
Thanks for reading and come back again next week.
Grey’s been pretty adamant that Shaw’s leg lick is a fatal flaw. It sure is conspicuous. He’s looks like my 5 year old doing the hokie pokey putting his left leg in. Do you share Grey’s concern?
I do not. I think if he starts to get busted inside regularly, and the team determines it’s due to his stance/swinging leg kick, they can make the adjustment to just do a simple lifting to get that front foot down and more toward the pitcher.
I say simple, but little changes are never simple to a hitter. But he’s hit everywhere he’s been. I’m sure he will succeed here – with that stance are with changes.
Pretty impressive that Shaw can see the ball as well as he does since he hits with his back mostly toward the pitcher in a closed stance. It will be interesting to see if he can keep that stance against big league pitching.
MLB pitchers are better at pitching inside, so it will be interesting see. But if he has to make that adjustment, I don’t think it will get hard for him to do.
12 team dynasty 5×5 just traded Tristen Casas for Gavin Williams…thoughts on that trade…also would you drop Victor Scott or Garrett Mitchell for Ben Rice? My OF consists of Churio-Duran-Ramos…Jake McCarthy and Mitchell along with Scott on my bench! Great work as usual thank you!! I have Kurtz and Eldridge on the farm!
With your stable of outfielders, adding Rice may be a good move. I’m not 100% sold on Scott, so if you do that, he’d be the one o drop.
As for your trade, I’m assuming you have depth at first base on the MLB level while waiting on Kurtz or Eldridge. Dealing depth for a solid pitcher makes sense to me.
Thanks for reading.