So far this season Tyler Wells has seemingly done the impossible. One would think with a K-BB% barely above nine (9!) in the AL East there would be a culling. And yet, he continues to evade hitters and limit the damage. What is letting him get away with this and avoid getting smashed? Those questions and more we seek to draw out!
| Season | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | WHIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 0 | 57 | 10.26 | 1.89 | 1.42 | 4.11 | 0.91 | 4.11 |
| 2022 | 14 | 64.2 | 5.57 | 2.23 | 1.11 | 3.34 | 1.10 | 4.81 |
This is just Tyler’s second season in the majors so there’s not a lot of data to go off of at this level. This is his first taste of the starter’s role and it seems to have affected his approach drastically. His K-rate is nearly cut in half in part due to a drop in his velocity from 95.2 to 93.9 mph. For the most part, he’s maintained his command allowing him to keep the walks and check and thus, avoid the big inning. But that xFIP is concerning if his luck normalizes.
| Season | K% | BB% | K-BB% | AVG | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 29.0% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 0.190 | 0.226 | 64.4% | 11.0% |
| 2022 | 15.3% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 0.225 | 0.240 | 78.9% | 8.5% |
Despite the drop in his K%, Tyler Wells has managed to limit hits, due in part to an especially low BABIP. Him maintaining a .240 is about as likely as this deep dive winning a Pulitzer. The low BABIP plus a much better strand rate than he exhibited out of the bullpen seems to suggest that regression is in his future.
What’s interesting about Tyler is his reverse splits.
| Splits | K% | BB% | K-BB% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs L | 17.9% | 4.5% | 13.4% | 0.200 | 0.243 | 0.333 | 0.254 |
| vs R | 13.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 0.252 | 0.304 | 0.415 | 0.313 |
He has allowed much better contact and, in general, tougher at-bats to RHB this year (and last). Righties have hit more than 50 pts higher against him in his matchups this year and have performed better in nearly every other measure. And even the lefty numbers are skewed a bit by a disproportionate .217 BABIP. Why has he been better against lefties you might be asking? Glad you asked!
| Pitch | # | vRHB | vLHB | % | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 406 | 235 | 171 | 39.7 | 0.270 | 0.328 | 0.562 | 0.736 |
| Slider | 255 | 199 | 56 | 24.9 | 0.203 | 0.230 | 0.290 | 0.339 |
| Changeup | 195 | 44 | 151 | 19.1 | 0.184 | 0.158 | 0.224 | 0.197 |
| Curveball | 154 | 114 | 40 | 15.1 | 0.241 | 0.150 | 0.310 | 0.193 |
| Sinker | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1.3 | 0.250 | 0.288 | 0.250 | 0.328 |
When you look at Tyler Wells’ pitch breakdown you see that outside of his fastball his next most used pitch to LHB is his changeup, not his slider. The slider goes away from RHB, but his changeup is the away pitch he needs to go away from lefties. This year his changeup also happens to be his best pitch (also posting a pristine -6 run value). Truth be told, all his secondary pitches are pretty effective, but his fastball has really become his worst pitch. It seems that the velocity drop (and possibly exposure) may be making it more hittable. Last year, from the bullpen, opponents hit .184 off his number one, this year it’s up to .270 at this juncture.
So, can he continue to succeed with this formula? So far this season he’s achieved a 38.2% groundball rate that’s an improvement over his bullpen rate of 21.9%. So he’s made a bit of a strategic adjustment there. But it still feels pretty low for a pitcher with a sub-20% strikeout rate. And since he pitches in the AL East, in Baltimore no less, he could face a lot headwinds going forward. That very reasonable 8.5% HR/FB could float up towards his 11% last year, and the current low BABIP finds its way closer to the mean his ERA will find its way closer to 4.
The key I think for him will be the success of reverse-split matchups with RHB. His slider is effective, but nowhere near as effective as the change is for LHB, and some savvy managers could start leaning into it. The secondaries are good enough for him to maintain some success but the lack of Ks could haunt him going forward in tougher matchups. Fantasy teams beware, as this well might dry up.
If you want more Coolwhip to top off your baseball experience, fantasy or otherwise, you can follow me on Twitter: @CoolwhipRB.
