Hitter Profiles: Real Or Deal?

The past two weeks have delivered some of the biggest fantasy performances of the young season, but digging beneath the surface shows not every breakout is built the same. Guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong have turned heads with a barrage of steals, runs, and even unexpected pop. Meanwhile, health has aided guys like Oneil Cruz flashing the elite raw tools that made him a breakout darling. Early-season explosions are fun, but fantasy managers should be thinking two moves ahead. Is it time to trust these players as foundational pieces, or is the smarter play to sell high while the market is buzzing? In the breakdown ahead, we’ll highlight who’s a hold, who’s a sell, and who deserves a little more skepticism despite the gaudy box scores. It is time for a game of real or deal for this week’s hitter profiles.

Sean Murphy

Coming off a brutal 2024 season where he slashed just .193/.268/.383 with 10 home runs across 92 games, Sean Murphy entered 2025 needing a reset. A fractured rib delayed his season debut even further, and with his struggles fresh in mind, many fantasy managers had already started looking ahead to Drake Baldwin as the next man up behind the plate in Atlanta. But since returning about three weeks ago, Murphy has quickly reminded everyone why he was considered a top-10 fantasy catcher just a year ago. Through his first 14 games back, he’s posted a .208 average with six home runs and a combined 20 runs and RBI for a strong early showing considering the long layoff and slow ramp-up.

While the surface stats are a bit uneven, a deeper dive into his profile paints a far more optimistic picture. Murphy’s .182 BABIP is well below expectations compared to his .231 xBA, suggesting he’s been significantly unlucky with balls in play so far. Meanwhile, his power metrics are legitimately eye-popping: a 25% barrel rate ranks among the league’s best, and although his current 46% HR/FB rate is unsustainable long-term, it speaks to just how much damage he’s doing when he makes contact. On the flip side, a 36% strikeout rate and that sky-high HR/FB rate signal that some regression is likely to come in the power production.

However, the most encouraging development for Murphy might be his approach at the plate. He’s showing his lowest chase since 2020 and is being noticeably more selective on first pitches which are both clear indicators of a more patient, disciplined hitter. That combination of better swing decisions, elite-quality contact, and a hot start makes it clear that Murphy is closer to his 2021-2023 form than the player who stumbled badly last season. Fantasy managers who were patient or opportunistic enough to grab him for cheap are being rewarded. Given the improvements in his underlying approach and the raw power he’s flashing, Murphy profiles as a strong hold moving forward, with the upside to climb back into the top tier of fantasy catchers if the strikeouts come down slightly.

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) entered 2025 viewed as a consensus top-30 prospect, thanks largely to his electrifying defense, premium speed, and overall athleticism. Some scouts had lingering concerns about whether the bat would translate fully, but fantasy managers who bet on him early are being handsomely rewarded. Currently the No. 5 player on the Razzball Player Rater, PCA is slashing .295 with five homers, 12 steals, and stuffing the stat sheet with 22 runs and 18 RBI. Most of that thunder has come in a recent 11-game heater over the last two weeks.

The wheels were always a given—PCA ranks in the 96th percentile for sprint speed and has only been caught four times since the start of 2024. Forty steals feels more like the floor than the ceiling here. The pop, however, remains a bit more smoke and mirrors. His five home runs are averaging just 383 feet, with only one clearing the 400-foot mark, hinting at more “sneaky pop” than true raw power. His Statcast page paints the picture of a high-speed menace rather than a legit slugger.

He’s absolutely valuable, but not quite a foundational, top-five fantasy piece. The realistic expectation is mid-teens homers with elite speed—a strong top-3 round profile. I’d be shopping PCA aggressively for a first-round bat like Kyle Tucker or Gunnar Henderson while the hype is peaking. Nothing wrong with holding, but don’t count on a full-season power breakout from here.

Pavin Smith

Absolutely loved Pavin Smith as a breakout candidate this winter with what he managed at the end of last season.  After he returned to the majors in late July, he’s actually walked more than he’s struck out, and his exit velocity jumped to over 93 mph. Even with small sample bias, his hard-hit rate soared over 50%.  Of course, we know there are platoon issues here as he had only managed four plate appearances against left handed pitching all season in 2025.  However, with a 222 wRC+ supporting a .365 average and four homers, we are getting great value for Pavin.  Take a look at the statcast page for Smith:

Focusing on the results as the number three hitter for the Diamondbacks against righties, he is in the top 10% of the league in xSLG, xWOBA, barrel rate and walk rate.  His flyballs are down a bit this season, but that will likely regress to his career numbers, and the homers will come in bunches.  If we look at the most similar profiles for Pavin in 2024, he compares favorably to Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Witt, and Fernando Tatis.  He is not one of those guys, but there is amazing platoon production available. He is only rostered in 52% of CBS leagues and 37% of Yahoo leagues, which is much too low.  This is an easy buy in daily leagues where matchups can be easily played.

Oneil Cruz

Few players in fantasy are more thrilling—or more nerve-wracking—than Oneil Cruz. Blessed with top-of-the-league power and speed, Cruz has always carried MVP upside with a side order of constant injury anxiety. After a 20/20 campaign last year, his first relatively healthy season, the 26-year-old is taking it to another level in 2025. Through the first month, Cruz has already launched seven homers, swiped 12 bags, and posted a .256 batting average. That’s a 40/60 pace over a full season—numbers that would easily put him in the thick of the real-life MVP race and make him a league-winner in fantasy formats.

Importantly, the underlying metrics back up the breakout: strikeouts are down, walks are up, and there’s no unsustainable BABIP or home run luck fueling the surge. This is real growth. Cruz comps best to a player like Bryce Harper—a talent capable of carrying a team for months at a time, but whose aggressive style of play always leaves the door open for injury risk. It’s a “hold and pray” scenario for managers already rostering him, and a “buy if you can” opportunity for everyone else. Just don’t expect many sellers unless someone gets cold feet about his health.