As we approach the quarter season mark, there are generally three potential outcomes for assessing a team at this juncture. The first option is to invest which includes an assessment of the strengths and weakness of the lineup or categories to shuffle and fill the gaps. The second option is to stand pat when underperformers, injuries, or other ailments are dragging down a solid team and time is all the doctor prescribed. Finally, the last option is to tear it all down in dynasty and keeper leagues. In those season-long leagues, tearing it down is likely more appropriately termed burn it to the ground. Knowing you are a devote believer of all that is Razzball, we will assume this is not the time to burn it down. We shall never lead thy astray.
This week, in our hitter profiles for the 2021 fantasy baseball season, we will be focusing on investing as we push into the second quarter of the season. We have hit the point where owner frustration has led to open trade blocks and waiver wire opportunities. For today’s dive, we have three guys with upside where the price is generally going to be minimal. What makes them so intriguing when on the surface the contributions are lacking? Time to dig deep.
Charlie Blackmon
If we look at the line from Ole Chuck at this point in the season, it might be fair to assume that the city of Denver has sunken to the depths as thin air alone should produce more than Blackmon’s 13-2-21-0-.225. Further supporting those irrational fears is the fact that Charles is sitting below the Mendoza line in his home ballpark so far in 2021. What gives? Why in the world is Charlie Blackmon on our ‘Buy’ list?
Well for starters, Charlie has been one of the unluckiest hitters this season. Since 2015, his BABIP has never dipped below .325 while he carries a spicy .248 this year. So, he must be striking out more than ever? Nope, he has a career-best K rate…and a career-best BB rate. His pitch selection is better than ever as he has cut down on chasing pitches outside the zone and has been capitalizing on the meatball.
I will leave you with this view of his percentile rankings for 2021 against his 2017 season when he delivered 137 runs, 37 home runs, 104 RBI with a .331 average. Pardon me while I go make some more trade offers…
Cesar Hernandez
Cesar Hernandez has been the late-career version of Carlos Beltran of my fantasy rosters in recent seasons. Meaning, he has been underappreciated and therefore underpriced but perfectly deserving of that middle infield lineup spot at the cost of nil, nada, and nothing. This year, Cesar is hitting a paltry .211 with 3 dingers and 0 steals. That is downright useless, but there is hope.
For Cesar we are going to keep it simple. His value comes from a respectable average (xBA .284), counting stat volume (batting 1st and 2nd) and steals (92nd percentile sprint speed). There are better days ahead if he simply continues doing what he is now, and the luck (.240 BABIP) turns around. In fact, over the last 10 games, he has hit .286 with 2 long-balls and 12 R+RBI.
Evan Longoria
At this point, the article should simply be titled ‘forgotten veterans that can still hit’. Alas, there is little ring to that title. However, Longoria has been forgotten by many in the fantasy world as he simmers on the waiver wire. So far in 2021, he has 4 long balls powered by a .263 average counting on 17 runs and 14 batted in. While respectable, this is nothing to write home about. Hoping you have read this far, we will fire the quick hitters on why Mr. Giant is here with career bests in:
- Hard hit Rates
- BB Rates
- Exit Velocities
- Barrel Rates
The list goes on with a .285 xBA and .563 xSLG. Longoria is at the top of the league with how he is hitting the ball and the results should be much better than they already are.
Maybe Longo has found a rebirth at age 35 or maybe this is just a hot streak. But at the cost of basically free, I am willing to see where this journey takes us.
