Welcome back to another preseason edition of Hitter Profiles! So far, we’ve covered our Breakouts and Busts. This week, we’re diving deeper into the draft pool, searching for those cheap options with upside otherwise known as a sleeper! For our purposes, we’ll define a sleeper as a player going after pick 250—roughly translating to Round 20 or later in 12-team leagues. These are the players who won’t cost you much on draft day but could deliver significant returns if things break their way. Whether it’s a young player on the verge of a breakout, a platoon bat making the most of his opportunities, or an injury-prone player who just needs to stay on the field, we’re looking for hidden gems who could outperform their draft position. Identifying the right sleepers can be the difference between a good fantasy season and a great one. So, let’s dig in and uncover some late-round gold with this week’s edition of Hitter Profiles!
Connor Norby (ADP 272)
It sure looks like the Marlins got a steal in the Trevor Rogers deal at last year’s trade deadline. Norby enters the 2025 season with eligibility at both second and third base in many leagues and is penciled into the Marlins’ lineup as their No. 2 hitter. Last season, in 45 games, Norby hit nine homers and stole three bases while posting a .236 average with a 33% strikeout rate. Those numbers aren’t otherworldly, but as a rookie, he held his own at the major league level. Looking deeper into his underlying metrics, Norby posted an elite 14.8% barrel rate and consistently put the ball in the air to maximize his power. However, his expected batting average (xBA) sat at .228, and his 86.2 mph average exit velocity was underwhelming, creating a mixed profile.
The biggest factor in Norby’s favor is his clear path to playing time and his maturity as a prospect. Moving out of Baltimore was likely the best thing for him, ensuring he gets a legitimate chance to translate his minor league success to the majors. Across his 2024 Triple-A season, Norby hit .293 with 17 homers and 13 steals in just 94 games. Throughout his minor league career, he has consistently shown 25–30 home run potential. While that power may not fully translate in the big leagues, 20+ homers is well within reason. On the speed side, Norby boasts 94th-percentile sprint speed and averaged 17 steals per full minor league season. With an ADP that places him as the 24th third baseman off the board, there’s plenty to like about grabbing him late in drafts.
Lars Nootbaar (ADP 260)
Nootbaar may be best known for his contributions to Team Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic rather than his major league production. Entering his age-27 season, he has yet to establish himself as a full-time contributor, topping out at 117 games played in 2023. Last season, Nootbaar put together a pedestrian line of 12 homers, seven steals, and a .244 average. But heading into 2025, he possesses an intriguing skill set that has yet to fully flourish at the big league level. Let’s break it down with some help from our Statcast friends.
First and foremost, Nootbaar’s defining strength is his approach at the plate. His pitch selection and ability to draw walks rank among the best in the league, making him a prime candidate for positive regression. That disciplined approach helps him generate quality contact, and in 2024, he ranked in the top 15% of MLB in both exit velocity and hard-hit rate. It’s not just about hitting the ball hard as he also makes quality contact, evidenced by his expected batting average (xBA) of .264. That suggests some legitimate upside if he simply regresses toward the mean. Statcast comparisons put him in the same range as Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, and William Contreras, three players who are pretty decent if you have been watching. There’s a ton to like about Nootbaar, and he’s one of my favorite late-round picks over guys like Jesús Sánchez or Jake McCarthy going in the same range. This is an easy buy.
Pavin Smith (ADP 445)
Going off the board alongside names like Starling Marte and Freddy Fermin, Pavin Smith is an afterthought in most early 2025 fantasy drafts. A former No. 7 overall pick in 2017, Smith has yet to live up to that pedigree, bouncing between the majors and minors over the past few years. In 2024, he delivered another strong Triple-A campaign, hitting .318 with 13 homers across 62 games although potentially boosted by Reno’s hitter-friendly environment. The real reason to take notice is how Smith performed once he was called up and given consistent playing time in September. During the final month of the season, Smith hit six homers, drove in 19 runs, and posted a .290 average with a wRC+ of 183. When we look under the hood, Statcast supports this breakout.
Over the full season, Smith improved across the board in key metrics, including exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and xBA. Most notably, he was pulling the ball 41% of the time (up from his career 36% rate) while cutting his chase rate by five percentage points. These adjustments led to his strong September, where he posted a 24% barrel rate highlighted by a three-homer game. Smith remains on the strong side of a platoon, but with his improved approach and a spot in 2024’s highest scoring lineup, there’s legitimate 25-homer potential here. At his current price, he’s a steal.
Trevor Larnach (ADP 389)
Another player in a potential platoon, Trevor Larnach made significant strides at the plate in 2024. Most notably, he slashed his strikeout rate from 34% in 2023 to 22.3% in 2024—a massive improvement. The key driver? Increased contact rates, particularly in the strike zone, where his contact rate jumped from 75.5% to 84.7%. While that’s just slightly above average, when paired with his power, it makes for an enticing fantasy profile. Speaking of power, Larnach also increased his average exit velocity by nearly two full mph, finishing at 92 mph putting him in the same range as Elly De La Cruz and Brent Rooker. After hitting 15 homers in 112 games last season, it’s easy to see how he could surpass 20 in 2025.
With Max Kepler moving to Philadelphia and Alex Kirilloff retiring, Larnach’s path to playing time looks clearer than ever. He’s projected to hit third in the Twins’ lineup, and given the injury concerns surrounding Byron Buxton and the uncertainty around young players like José Miranda and Matt Wallner, there’s little reason for Minnesota to limit his playing time. There’s definite sleeper appeal and maybe full breakout potential for a player being drafted alongside names like Jacob Young and Dylan Moore. Go get him.
