Hayden Wesneski: Up-And-Coming Dynasty Player

Hello, everyone, hope the weekend is off to a great start for you. For you regular readers, welcome back to another edition of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players, and if you are new, welcome and enjoy.

This week I finally feature a pitcher as I highlight Hayden Wesneski of the Houston Astros. A right-hander, Wesneski is off to a solid start this season and should, I believe, have a breakout season in 2025.

So let’s not waste any more time and let’s get to talking about Wesneski.

Career Statistics

Road to the Majors

Hayden Wesneski attended Cy-Fair High School in the Houston area and was selected in the 33rd round of the 2016 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays. The right-handed decided not to sign and instead headed to Sam Houston State in nearby Huntsville, where he immediately established himself as the ace of the staff. During his freshman year in 2017 he led NCAA Division I freshmen in wins with 10 as he finished 10-2 overall with a 3.93 ERA.

Each season at Sam Houston saw Wesneski improve on the mound. After posting that 3.93 ERA as a freshman, he lowered it to 3.50 his sophomore year and then lowered it to 3.32 as a junior. During that same time span, his WHIP went from 1.323 to 1.239 to 1.126. Even more impressive was the uptick in his K/9 rate. His freshman season saw him strike out 5.0 batters per nine innings. That increased to 6.2 as a sophomore and then to 9.4 his junior season. His 110 strikeouts in 2019 set a school record.

The Yankees selected Wesneski in the 6th round of the 2019 draft and developed him in their system as a starter before trading him to the Cubs for Scott Effross in August of 2022. He made five appearances in the minors for the Cubs before being recalled to the majors and appeared in six games, four of which were starts.

During his time in the minors, Wesneski went 20-16 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.159 WHIP with a 2.7 BB/9 rate and 9.8 K/9 rate.

Major League Career

While with the Cubs, Wesneski was used as both a starter and reliever, appearing in 68 games and making 22 starts and going 9-13 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.168 WHIP while posting a 2.8 BB/9 rate and 8.7 K/9 rate.

This past offseason brought Wesneski to the Astros, his hometown team, as part of the Kyle Tucker trade. The plan was for Wesneski to be a member of the starting rotation and through Friday he has made three starts, going 1-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP while walking 1.5 batters per nine with a 10.5 K/9 rate.

The Tools

Hayden Wesneski throws six different pitches, with the Astros changing his usage rate for each of them compared to what he threw last season with the Cubs. His two main pitches – the 4-seam fastball and sweeper – are still his top two pitches with Houston. But the Astros have him throwing the 4-seamer 39.2% of the time compared to last season’s rate of 36%. Meanwhile, the sweeper has gone from a 40.7% usage rate down to 25.5% this season.

• Fastballs

In addition to his 4-seamer Wesneski also throws a sinker. The 4-seamer is league average at 94.3 MPH while his sinker comes in a 92.9 mph, a little below average for right-handed pitchers. While the two pitches don’t overpower hitters, he throws both pitches high in the zone and inside to right-handed hitters, with the sinker busting in on righties even more than the 4-seamer.

Wesneski gets good carry on both pitches, helping him have success with both of them. He has a 25.0% K% with his 4-seamer with a .200 batting average while his sinker produces a 50% K% with a .125 batting average.

• Breaking Pitches

When not throwing a 4-seamer or sinker, Wesneski comes in with his sweeper, which averages 83.6 mph. Breaking away from righties, the pitch has produced a 44.4 K% this season and a .167 batting average against. Wesneski pairs his cutter with his sweeper, giving him a faster, sharper breaking pitch that so far has produced a .143 batting average against.

The biggest change the Astros have made with Hayden Wesneski is having him throw a curve, a pitch he did not throw with the Cubs. But perhaps he should have. While the sample size is small, the pitch has been effective for him as opponents are hitting .000 against it.

• Offspeed

Wesneski’s final pitch is his changeup. It was a pitch he featured the least while with the Cubs last season, throwing it 2.8% of the time. The usage rate has increased since joining the Astros as he has thrown it 5.7% of the time through his first three starts.

The pitch has been a good one for him as well as opponents are hitting .000 against it with a Whiff% of 37.5%.

The Verdict

The chances of Hayden Wesneski being an ace are small, and he likely isn’t really going to be a No. 2 pitcher. So while his ceiling is not very high, he has a very high floor, meaning he should be a very good No. 3 pitcher.

He has six solid pitches, allowing him to attack both right-handers and left-handers equally well. Again, this is a small sample size, but in his three starts this year right-handed hitters have a slash line of .216/.256/.568 with a 33% strikeout rate and a 2.6% walk rate. Meanwhile, lefties have a .074/.138/.185 slash line with a 27.6% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate.

Those numbers are in line with what he has done during his career. Overall, righties have a .210/.275/.391 slash line with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Lefties have a .233/.297/.442 slashing line, 19.5% strikeout rate, and 7.5% walk rate.

The only real issue with Wesneski is the amount of home runs he has allowed. When he misses his spots with his fastball, opposing hitters have sent those pitches far into the outfield stands. In 208 career innings pitched, Wesneski has served up 40 homers for a HR rate of 1.7/9 IP. This year, he has already allowed five homers in 18 innings, with three of those coming against the Angels in his last start, accounting for all three runs he allowed in six innings on the mound.

Home runs aside, Wesneski is a pitcher who should find consistent success in Houston. The organization has a long history of turning “average” pitchers into above average starters and it already looks like the tweaks they have made with him are paying off. But in many fantasy leagues, he is still sitting on the waiver wire. He is rostered in only 20% of ESPN leagues and 39% of Yahoo leagues while only 69% of Fantrax teams have him rostered.

With pitchers hitting the IL each and every day, you would be wise to go after Wesneski and then keep him for several more years after this season as he is an up-and-coming dynasty player.

Happy Easter and thanks for reading. Come back again next week.