2009 Razzball Point Shares

We have posted the 2009 Point Shares for 10 team and 12 team leagues under ‘2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings‘ in the top navigation menu. Point Shares are the estimated difference in an average fantasy team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position. For example, David Wright’s 6.64 Point Shares means he is worth 6.6 points more to the average team than an average 3B (closest player to ‘average 3B’ is Kevin Youkilis). Point Shares are estimated for each statistical category – Wright’s points are broken out as: 1.5 Runs, 0.9 HRs, 1.7 RBI, 1.1 SB, and 1.4 AVG.

The initial 2009 Point Shares posted were based respectively on Marcel and CHONE projections. These projections are based on Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS projections weighted by Baseball Prospectus AB/IP (note: Saves projected by Razzball). There are two major benefits of this projection method are:

Playing Time – The biggest weakness with projected stats – even those as good as Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS – is that they do not accurately project playing time. While a player’s performance can be modeled based on that player’s past performance, component skills, performance of similar players, etc., playing time is dependent on team roster/depth chart. Even Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA doesn’t project AB/IP well. For example, it has phenom catcher Matt Wieters at 105/31/102/.311 in 571 AB. The problem with that? The last catcher to manage that many at-bats was Victor Martinez in 2006! So don’t get too wedded to the counting stats you see by any projection system. We converted Marcel, CHONE, and ZiPS counting stats into per-AB and per-IP rates and then weighted each of them equally against the AB/IP that is constantly being updated by Baseball Prospectus as part of their Fantasy package. The impact? The latest projection for Matt Wieters is 348 ABs which reduces his value from the #1 catcher (and perhaps a 1st round pick) to the 10th catcher off the board in a 10 team league.
Projection System Anomalies – Any projection system may over- or underproject a player – e.g., CHONE loves Javier Vazquez this year to the tune of his stats would make him the 4th most valuable fantasy player based solely on projections. By balancing three respected sources, such anomalies are minimized.

Please note that the Point Shares aren’t meant to be a suggested draft sheet. You need to factor Average Draft Position and the strategies of your fellow drafters for that. The purpose is to show the projected fantasy value of each player based on a diversified mix of leading statistical projection systems. CC Sabathia may be #5 but you can generally wait until at least the 2nd round to get him.

An additional note on pitchers is that we have incorporated the findings from our Risky Pitcher analysis that focuses on previous year pitch counts/types (Pitch counts and types sourced from FanGraphs). The P Flags category has letters for risky pitchers that refer to the following:

A = 30+% breaking balls and 2,000+ pitches in 2008
a = 27-29.9% breaking balls and 2,000+ pitches in 2008
B = 700+ spike in pitches between 2007-2008 (note: amongst pitchers with 2700+ pitches or extreme spikes and 2000-2699 pitches)
b = 700+ spike in MLB pitches between 2007-2008 (but not if Minor League pitches included)
C = 2008 was first year above 2700+ pitches

Lastly, below are rosters based on the most Overrated and Underrated teams when comparing ESPN’s Live Draft averages with Point Shares.

All-Overrated Team (ESPN Draft Averages vs. Razzball Point Shares)
Position	Player	ESPN Rank	Point Shares Rank	Diff	Comment
C	Victor Martinez	99	212	113	After an injury-prone 2008, drafters are betting on V-Mart to return to his 2004-2007 form when he averaged .301/78/21/99. The problem? It required 147 games and 550 AB per year to reach those numbers – extremely high totals for a Catcher. He’s now 30 and the Indians also have Shoppach. At an estimated 400 ABs, his counting stats are a VORP-like 53/12/64.
1B	Derrek Lee	57	141	84	D-Lee seems to be coasting off his career year in 2005 as there is no reason why a player who isn’t even in top 10 in his position is being drafted so high. Don’t reach for 80/20/80/.290 at 1B.
2B	Placido Polanco	133	236	103	Polanco is a one category player. Yes, he’ll earn you a point in average vs. the average 2B but he’ll hurt you plenty in HR/RBI/SB. Fine for an end-game MI pick but no reason to reach for him.
SS	Rafael Furcal	73	199	126	It is possible that Furcal can provide enough value to warrant the #73 pick if he gets 550+ AB. But he’s 31 and has been injured the past 2 years. I’ve got a line of 438/73/9/45/20/.284. I wouldn’t bet my 8th pick that he’ll far exceed that.
3B	Chone Figgins	110	225	115	Yes he brings above averaged speed at this position (+2 points above average). But he will KILL you at HR/RBI. I estimate him at 4 HR and 42 RBI. The average 3B in a 10 team league (counting those at CI) go for 23/85. Where are you making up 19 HR / 43 RBI? Pass.
CI	Aubrey Huff	85	166	81	Huff had his best year since 2003. People are drafting for a repeat of 2008. Expect a repeat of 2004-2007 (75/20/75/.280)
MI	Howie Kendrick	122	196	74	Maybe he’ll stay healthy one of these years and hit .330+. Even if he does, he’s not going to provide much more than average HR/SB for the position. Why draft Kendrick so high when the upside isn’t so high and the injury risk is.
OF	Ichiro	22	142	120	I’ve mentioned him before as the most overrated top 3 round pick. Here is how it lays out with Point Shares. He’ll earn you 1.1 points in SB and 1.2 in AVG vs. the average OF. Not bad. He’s just average in Runs. But his HR/RBI are -1.6 and -1.8 respectively. Basically his HR/RBI hurt you more than his SB/AVG help. Why would you waste a top pick on that? Projections: 78/8/46/26/.305 and a bottom half finish for any team taking him in the first 5 rounds.
OF	Justin Upton	125	220	95	I think people are drunk on his upside. He’s a negative on average (30+% K rate will do that) and he’s not a real SB threat (he’s never stolen more than 15 in a season). None of the projection systems have him going much more than 70/20/70. Sober up.
OF	Xavier Nady	129	201	72	He doesn’t even have a starting position. And I wouldn’t bet on a repeat of 2008 anyway…
OF	Vernon Wells	106	174	68	Injury prone. Maybe he pulls off his ‘every 3rd year is great’ trick (best years were 2003 and 2006) but don’t draft him expecting anything more than 80/20/80/8/.275
OF	Manny Ramirez	24	82	58	This isn’t about whether Manny could hit. It’s how many ABs he’s going to get. He played only 130 games in 2006 and 2007. He’ll have no DH slot and LA has a decent 4th OF in Pierre. I would take the over on my projections 75/27/87/.295 but not enough to jump 6 rounds.
UTIL	Jim Thome	136	223	87	Good for near 30 HRs but an average drain (lucky to hit .250) with nothing special in Runs and RBIs. Add in he’s a UTIL clog and he’s a late game play at best.

All-Underrated Team (ESPN Draft Averages vs. Razzball Point Shares)
Position	Player	ESPN Rank	Point Shares Rank	Diff	Comment
C	Mike Napoli	139	133	6	Napoli, Mauer, McCann, Martin, and Soto are all being taken at or near their projected Point Share rank. Napoli’s is the best value of the bunch but just barely. I’d still punt catcher.
1B	Ryan Howard	14	11	3	This is another position where ESPN ADP and Point Shares are coming in close on a lot of top 1Bs.
2B	Kelly Johnson	216	107	109	People are taking Polanco and Kendrick 7 rounds before Kelly Johnson? Nothing special but 87/15/72/10/.281 provides some solid value at 2B.
SS	Miguel Tejada	155	122	33	I’m not a huge fan at this point of Tejada but he’s projecting at 75/16/75/.291.
3B	Edwin Encarnacion	251	132	119	74/22/77/5/.275 is below average for a 3B but it’s still good for #12 at the position.
CI	Mark Reynolds	184	126	58	Not a favorite of mine because his huge K rate leads to .250ish average but he’s set for 80/24/80/6 with some upside. Slight concern about Chad Tracy taking some ABs away.
MI	Alexei Ramirez	62	37	25	If the playing time projections are right and he gets 550+ AB, a 25/15 season with solid Runs and RBIs has high value at a position that falls quickly after the top 3. I wouldn’t draft him at #37 but he’s one of the few middle infielders that may provide value in Rounds 3-8.
OF	Nelson Cruz	235	99	136	I guess the word isn’t out yet to ESPN Nation about everyone’s favorite sleeper.
OF	Cameron Maybin	179	117	62	Projected playing time at 534 ABs seems high to me but he could be a cheaper version of Curtis Granderson if Florida hits him leadoff. A 15 HR / 30 SB candidate.
OF	Jay Bruce	92	54	38	The projection systems are loving Jay Bruce to the tune of 87/30/84/9/.274. Looking like a solid #2 OF and very strong #3 OF.
OF	Rich Ankiel	156	134	22	Projected for 71/27/86/3/.260 in only 466 AB. Worth taking as a 4th OF if your team is low on power.
OF	Andre Ethier	118	103	15	We call him Andre Nethier because he’s neither great in power or speed. But an 80/19/80/.290 line tends to be undervalued.
UTIL	Chris Davis	71	49	22	Much like Cruz, the hype isn’t quite as strong as I thought. Being projected at 80/29/98/.272. I don’t like gambling on unproven hitters in the first 8 rounds but a 7th round gamble on Chris Davis appears smart right now.