With the reported promotion of Paul Skenes to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday afternoon, it’s fair to wonder who could be primed to follow the fireballer as the No. 1 overall selection in the MLB Draft this July. Last year’s college trio at the top of the draft class was a historically strong group, led by Skenes and followed by outfielders Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford. This summer is poised to have an equally-as-lethal top three, headlined by Georgia’s Charlie Condon and Florida’s Jac Caglianone, who are primed for an all-time great Golden Spikes race down the stretch. Arkansas southpaw Hagen Smith is right there with them as this year’s top collegiate arm, but what Condon and Caglianone are doing is truly historic and both players should be positioned firmly at the top of your first-year player draft boards. But who should go first overall and who should you have at No. 1 for your FYPD?
It’s incredibly likely that Condon and Caglianone go 1-2, regardless of order, in the 2024 MLB Draft. Perhaps Smith can sneak into that grouping and push one to third overall, but reportedly the Oakland Athletics aren’t very bullish on their chances of snagging Caglianone at No. 4. At present, Condon is positioned at No. 1 on MLB Pipeline’s big board, followed by Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and Caglianone at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.
Arriving on campus as a walk-on, Condon redshirted in 2021 and then burst onto the scene in a big way as a redshirt freshman last season: .386/.484/.800, 25 HR, 67 RBI, 61 R, 17.7 K%, 13.0 BB%. In 2024, he has followed that up with arguably the most impressive offensive campaign in recent memory. In 47 games this year, Condon is hitting .459/.568/1.105 with 33 home runs, 16 doubles, 69 RBI, 70 runs, a 14.8 K% and 17.4 BB%. He has 50 extra-base hits in 47 games while batting .459. That’s unheard of. And it’s translated into the Bulldogs being ranked among the top-15 teams in the country.
Charlie Condon swats his 33rd homer of the season, tying the all-time season record in the BBCOR era.
MLB's No. 1 Draft prospect has hit a roundtripper in 7 (!!!) straight games: https://t.co/wAFBbDyyXh
(?: @BaseballUGA)pic.twitter.com/Os8d84LSvq
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 5, 2024
If you’re looking for any sort of downside to Condon, you’ll be hard-pressed to do so as it relates to the dynasty fantasy baseball realm. He’s a polished bat. He’s selective. He’s walking more than he’s striking out this year. His pitch recognition is above average for his age. However, he slugged just .348 across 50 Cape Cod League plate appearances, finishing with a .261 average and two extra-base hits in 11 games. And defensively, he has no real home despite mainly sticking at third base this season. He has also seen time at first base and in the corner outfield but is more of a fringy defender at each spot. If you’re looking for a comp, look to Kris Bryant back in 2013. Their swings and loads are nothing alike, but Condon is a polished college bat exhibiting unappareled power in his draft year with the ability to play all four corner positions, albeit none at an elite level — just like Bryant. Although he has never been a stellar defender, Bryant entered the draft as a top-two overall selection, with positional versatility and hit 31 home runs in 2013, which at the time signified a BBCOR record. To be fair, Condon has made substantial strides defensively this year and may be able to stick at third long-term, but so did Bryant at the beginning of his career.
Charlie Condon continues to wow on defense.
Video: @BaseballUGApic.twitter.com/ux0l86FA7O
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 2, 2024
Shifting to Caglianone, the two-way star has also produced an all-time great offensive season while splitting his time between the mound and batter’s box. He touches triple digits from the left side and has a potential plus breaking ball and changeup. It’s always been the same story for Cags on the hill: elite stuff, high strikeout rates, low BAA, high walk numbers. That has held true this season: 5-1, 53 1/3 IP, 4.39 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .223 BAA, 10.6 K/9 and 6.2 BB/9. So, while he’s an attractive prospect as a two-way talent and will likely be drafted as such, today’s discussion revolves largely around his work at the plate.
Caglianone set the BBCOR home run record with 33 home runs last season, which Condon has promptly tied and will undoubtedly break by season’s end. Along with that power output Caglianone slashed .323/.389/.738 with a 18.2 K% and 5.3 BB% while starting all 71 games. He not only set Florida’s single-season home run record, but also drove in more runs (90) than any player in school history.
Jac Caglianone hit this baseball 516 feet pic.twitter.com/iXMf7I0v9k
— Stephen Schoch (@bigdonkey47) April 17, 2024
All of that is noteworthy for a potential top draft selection, but here’s what makes the conversation truly interesting: Caglianone has evolved even more from 2023-24 than Condon has. His power is stronger than ever, but he’s pairing that with an enhanced approach at the plate that gives him an unprecedented power-contact combination at his disposal. Earlier this season, Caglianone tied the NCAA record by homering in nine-straight games from April 6-19. He followed that with an equally as impressive feat by going 66-consecutive plate appearances without a strikeout from April 7-27. At present, Caglianone ranks second nationally with 27 home runs behind Condon while being positioned as one of the 40-most-difficult hitters to strikeout in the country with 11.0 at bats per strikeout.
BAHAHAHA ?
Jac Caglianone hits HR #27 on this…swing…? pic.twitter.com/Zphc9o8icg
— 11Point7 College Baseball (@11point7) May 7, 2024
Caglianone has completely transformed himself into a plus-plus hit tool player this season, which is why there’s a legitimate conversation in this debate. His 17-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio has fueled a miniscule 7.6% strikeout rate, which is nearly half that of Condon (14.8%). With two strikes, he widens to take up nearly the entire length of the batter’s box while minimizing his stride. All the while, Caglianone has slashed .412/.511/.856 with 56 runs and 54 RBI. As a bonus, he’s an elite defender at first base capable of competing for Gold Gloves at the next level.
Inning-ending Cags gem? ?#GoGators // ? SEC Network+ pic.twitter.com/iHusqUaB7v
— Florida Gators Baseball (@GatorsBB) April 3, 2024
With Caglianone’s work on both sides of the baseball, he should have the edge to win the 2024 Golden Spikes Award. But the top pick in the 2024 MLB Draft is even more cloudy, with the Cleveland Guardians having rights to the first player on the board. The only way they can go wrong is by passing on both players for Bazzana, who is a top-five talent but does not possess the same ceiling or profile as a middle-of-the-order bat in the MLB as Condon and Caglianone. Given the improvements Caglianone has made with his strikeout and contact rates in less than one calendar year, as well as his two-way status (he was a projected first rounder as a pitcher out of high school before Tommy John surgery), the Gators standout should be the pick for Cleveland in July. Personally, I think it should go Caglianone-Condon-Smith-Chase Burns-Bazzana with the top-four selections if based solely on talent and big-league impact (and, in effect, fantasy impact).
Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised if both Condon and Caglianone are hitting in the heart of a Major League batting order by August 2025. We’ve already seen Nolan Schanuel, Wyatt Langford, and Skenes receive the call in 2024. It’s clear Condon and Caglianone are generational bats capable of making that same level of immediate big-league impact. I would not pass on either player at No. 2, not even for Smith.
That’s all for this week, Razzball fam! As always, I’m happy to take this conversation into the comments section or on Twitter, where you can find me @WorldOfHobbs.
Man, you just totally blew off the best arm in college baseball like he’s an afterthought. Let me assure you, I watch this particular team as close as anyone in the country, and Hagen Smith is no afterthought.
Hobbs: Swing and a miss (on a pitch in the dirt at that).
I am trying to get either Matt Shaw or Roman Anthony? Any preference?
OBP keeper league.
I’m probably not as high on Condon as most. Of all the bats coming out I am most high on Kurtz. I think he gets dinged a lot because he is first base only. But the kid has a great eye and seems to hit lefties as well as righties. I just think he has a chance to be a big time mlb bat.
Condon’s home/road splits are worrisome. Bazzana crushed in Cape Cod last year while Condon struggled.
You’re right that Bazzana doesn’t project as a middle of the order bat in the same way as Condon and Caglianone, but Bazzana has the tools to be a table setter at the top of a lineup for a decade. He’d be my pick if I were Cleveland, even with their wealth of MINF talent.
Thanks for the read, Matt. Foley is a launch pad and in general, the home/away splits for UGA hitters this season are eye-popping. That’s a great point.
To be clear, I have Bazzana as a top-five pick. I just don’t like him nearly as much as the other two bats, and think there’s a clear dropoff after Condon-Cags-Smith to the other collegiate talent — although I understand that’s a relatively unshared take.
I would agree on the Bazzana-Cleveland fit, but they have struggled so badly tin identifying and developing middle-of-the order bats that I don’t see how they pass on Caglianone or Condon. But Bazzana hitting in front of Jo Ram for a half-decade is attractive, and I see your point.