Andrew Abbott: Up-And-Coming Dynasty Player

Last weekend, I featured Milwaukee pitcher Logan Henderson. A few days later, he was given a ticket back to the minors despite pitching well on the mound, including allowing only one run on five hits and two walks in five innings in his final outing before being sent down.

So this week, I hope to not curse Andrew Abbott of the Reds. Considering the success he has had this season, plus the fact he is now in his third year with the Reds, I will say he is at least safe from not being sent to the minors anytime soon.

Abbott is making a serious case to be considered an All-Star this season and a certain pitcher to be rostered on your fantasy team.

Let’s examine why he is an Up-and-Coming Dynasty Player.

Career Statistics

The College and Minors Years

Drafted out of high school in the 36th round by the New York Yankees, Andrew Abbott obviously wasn’t a pitcher teams were clamoring to draft. Abbott chose to attend Virginia and played for four years. However, for the first three years, he was used almost exclusively as a reliever, appearing in 57 games and making only three starts. In those 57 games, he went 8-7 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. In 108.1 innings, he struck out 165 hitters for a 13.7 K/9 rate.

As a senior in 2021, Abbott was used as a starter, making 17 starts in 19 games. In 106.2 innings of work, he went 9-6 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Even more impressive was his ability to still strike out hitters, recording a 13.7 K/9 rate with a nice 2.7 BB/9 rate.

Thanks to that senior season, the Reds drafted Abbott in the second round. After signing, he appeared in six games in the minors, making five starts, between Rookie and Class A ball. In those six games covering 13 innings of work, he had a 4.15 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP.

Andrew Abbott continued to have success in the minors, appearing in the 2022 Futures Game and quickly climbing the organizational ladder, leading to his MLB debut in 2023.

The Tools

• Fastball

Abbott does not have one dominant pitch, and his fastball is below average when it comes to velocity, averaging 91.9 mph compared to 93.2 mph by other MLB left-handers. Despite the lack of velocity, it is the pitch Abbott relies on the most, throwing it 49% of the time. And so far, the results have been good.

Opposing batters have a .211 average against the fastball with a .197 xBA, .382 SLG, and .423 xSLG. The batting average against is lower than his first two seasons, when hitters had a .249 and .254 average against the pitch in 2023 and 2024. It is a pitch he throws up and in against left-handed hitters, which leads to a high percentage of fly balls but not a lot of hard contact.

Andrew Abbott was shut down last August with an inflamed left shoulder, and it was an injury that was obviously affecting Abbott on the mound. As a rookie in 2023, he had a 9.9 K/9 rate. Last season it fell to 7.4, but it has rebounded this season to 10.0.

• Change

In addition to being healthy, Abbott is incorporating his changeup more this season. After throwing the fastball 54% last season and the change 16% of the time, he has increased its usage to 21% while throwing the fastball 49% of the time. Abbott has to rely on mixing his pitches as he doesn’t have that overpowering fastball. The change averages 84.3 mph, so about seven mph slower than the fastball.

The pitch has good movement away from right-handed hitters, and overall, hitters have just a .125 batting average against the change with a .210 xBA, .281 SLG, and .427 xSLG.

• Sweeper/Curve/Cutter

Combined, Andrew Abbott throws the sweeper and cutter 27% of the time, with the sweeper coming in a little harder than his curve (82.3 mph vs. 80 mph), giving the sweeper a little less vertical drop compared to the curve and thus another look for batters to adjust to. Overall, the sweeper has been the better pitch, especially this season, as opponents have only a .227 average against the pitch vs. a .313 average against the curve.

Andrew Abbott also throws a cutter every now and then, but not enough to make opposing hitters really worry about it.

The Verdict

If you have to define Andrew Abbott on the mound, he would be defined as a pitcher and not a thrower. He relies on his fastball, but he does a great job of mixing his pitches and throwing to all parts of the zone. His ability to do this has limited the hard contact of opposing hitters and has created some interesting StatCast numbers.

Abbott’s fastball velocity ranks in the 16th percentile, but his Average EV ranks in the 74th percentile. His Chase% and Whiff% rank in the 48th and 51st percentile, respectively, but his K% ranks in the 79th percentile.

The southpaw’s fantasy numbers are much better across the board this season, and that is likely due to the fact that he is completely healthy. Last year, he hada  9-6 record with a 3.39 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through his first 19 starts. But over his last six starts, he went 1-4 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The numbers were worse over his final four starts, posting a 5.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP before finally being shut down.

If there is one area where Andrew Abbott could be better is limiting his base on balls. He is currently walking 3.8 hitters per nine innings, which is a career high. When you see that his BB% ranks in the 27th percentile and his Barrel% ranks in the 30th percentile, it makes you wonder if he is playing with fire. If that worries you, consider it a red flag. But the rankings come close to matching what he did last year, and he was a pretty solid pitcher most of the year.

Will Abbott keep this up? It is more than likely that his ERA will rise a bit as it would be a Cy Young season if he maintains his 1.77 ERA. But in his first two seasons, which include his poor August last season, he had a 3.78 ERA. That is his ceiling, and I don’t think he is going to hit that ceiling this year.

Now in his third season, he understands what his strengths and weaknesses are and is demonstrating that on the mound. With pitching in such short supply, the fact that he is available in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues and 57 percent of ESPN leagues is astounding. This is a pitcher who should be on your team.

Thanks for reading, and come back again next week.