Welcome back, my friends, to the final edition of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players of the 2025 season. Hard to believe the final weekend of the season is here.
For my entry this weekend, I am highlighting a player who I think is a sneaky up-and-coming dynasty player – pitcher AJ Blubaugh of the Houston Astros.
Since being drafted, Blubaugh has defied expectations of being just an organizational depth guy and is now pitching well in the majors – only three seasons removed from being drafted in the seventh round.
So let’s take a few minutes to discuss up-and-coming dynasty player AJ Blubaugh.
Career Statistics
| YEAR | LEVEL | G-GS | W-L | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-22 | NCAA | 38-7 | 5-4 | 84.0 | 3.96 | 1.190 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 9.9 |
| 2022 | RK | A | 6-3 | 2-1 | 18.2 | 4.34 | 1.071 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 11.6 |
| 2023 | A+ | AA | 26-12 | 6-3 | 100.0 | 4.68 | 1.340 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 10.1 |
| 2024 | AA | AAA | 28-25 | 12-4 | 128.2 | 4.06 | 1.321 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 9.3 |
| 2025 | AAA | 22-19 | 5-8 | 99.0 | 5.82 | 1.566 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 9.2 |
| 2025 | Astros | 10-2 | 3-1 | 28.0 | 1.93 | 0.821 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 10.6 |
Road to the Show
AJ Blubaugh attended the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, where he was used mostly as a reliever as he made seven starts out 38 appearances. Thanks to Covid, his 2020 season consisted of only three games in which he had a 13.50 ERA. Over his last two seasons, he posted a 3.03 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 9.9 K/9 ratio and 3.4 BB/9 ratio.
The Astros drafted him in the 7th round of the 2022 draft and converted him into a starter, though the organization often piggybacks their starters in the lower levels, leaving him to come into games often as the long reliever. When looking at his minor league numbers, they don’t jump out at you. In 82 career games and 59 starts, Blubaugh had a 4.39 ERA and 1.383 WHIP with a not-so-pretty 4.2 BB/9. But what stands out is his 9.6 K/9.
Last year, Blubaugh spent most of the season at Triple-A and went 12-4 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.348 WHIP. 3.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 ratios. The 12 wins led the offensive-heavy Pacific Coast League, while his ERA ranked second and his 128 strikeouts ranked fourth. His 24% strikeout rate also led the PCL, and his overall performance led to a spot in the 2024 Futures Game.
With injuries decimating the Astros staff this season, Blubaugh was first recalled to the parent club for one game in April, then one game again in early August, before being recalled again in late August and sticking with the team and being used mostly as a long reliever.
The Tools
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4-Seam Fastball (54% usage)
Blubaugh’s fastball averages 94.8 mph, but he can rush it to the plate when needed, as he has topped out at 98.2 mph this season, as he has not had to conserve his energy while pitching out of the bullpen. The pitch has been effective as opposing batters have only a .205 average against it. Helping the pitch be effective is the fact that AJ Blubaugh generates 12 inches of horizontal movement into right-handed hitters with 13 inches of drop. The MLB average is eight inches of horizontal movement and 15 inches of drop.
However, when he doesn’t command the pitch, batters can punish it as they have a .455 SLG thanks to three home runs against the pitch.
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Sweeper (22% usage)
This is a pitch Blubaugh has worked on consistently in the minors this season, leading to some ugly outings down on the farm. But as he has thrown it more and become comfortable with it, the pitch has become a great weapon. Opposing hitters only have a .214 average against the pitch with a 36.5 Whiff% with 10 strikeouts in 28 at-bats.
Thrown at an average speed of 81.8 mph, it plays well off his fastball in the change of speed as well as the movement it generates away from righties. He averages 16 inches of break and 41 inches of drop. The MLB average is 14 inches of horizontal movement and 39 inches of drop.
Like his fastball, however, if Blubaugh loses command of the pitch, it can lead to bad results as opposing hitters have a .571 SLG as six of the hits he allowed on the pitch resulted in three homers and one double.
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Change (20% usage)
The change is another pitch AJ Blubaugh has been perfecting since joining the Astros, as he used mostly a fastball-curveball-slider mix in college. Like the sweeper, it has taken some time for him to get comfortable with the pitch. But now it can probably be considered his best secondary pitch. Averaging 86.4 mph, opposing batters are 0-for-25 with 10 strikeouts against the pitch.
Blubaugh throws the pitch with great fade into righties, averaging 18 inches of horizontal movement and 30 inches of drop. The MLB averages are 14 and 33 inches.
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The Curve (4% usage) and Cutter (1% usage)
When called on to start, AJ Blubaugh will feature his curveball more and can show a cutter, though it is a pitch he has thrown only five times as a major leaguer.
Like his other pitches, it has great movement with the curve as he averages 59 inches of drop compared to the MLB average of 53 inches.
The Verdict
AJ Blubaugh is more a sum of his parts.
But that doesn’t mean he is not an effective pitcher now or going forward. While the sample size is small, batters have swung and missed 66 of the 216 pitches he has thrown this season, a 30.6% whiff rate. The major league average is 24.9%. Blubaugh has always struggled to command his pitches, but he also struggled with challenging hitters, leading him to try to nibble at the corners of the plate.
That has led to a lot of walks in the minors, but with the Astros, he has attacked the zone more and learned that as he challenges opposing hitters, he can have success. Entering Friday, he has only a 2.3 BB/9 rate, way below his career average, while maintaining a 10.6 K/9 rate. One reason for his success is due to the fact he has pitched mostly out of the bullpen and thus can attack with just a few pitches.
But in his two spot starts, covering seven innings, he allowed only seven hits and two earned runs with two walks and 13 strikeouts. And in his last seven appearances, he has thrown 15 scoreless innings and allowed only five hits and four walks with 18 strikeouts.
Future Starter or Reliever?
The question surrounding Bluebaugh has always been what his future will be in the majors. Does he have the ability to be a starter, or is he destined to be a reliever? His past history of walks, thanks to an inconsistent release point, is why some believe he is destined for the bullpen and will likely be a solid long reliever.
However, in watching him pitch, he definitely has the pitches and ability to be a starter. And he will likely be given every chance to be in the rotation next year. Framber Valdez will likely sign with another team if the bidding for his services gets outrageous, and Luis Garcia, who missed most of this season, will now miss all of next season due to needing right elbow surgery. That leaves at least two open spots in the rotation, and the future of Lance McCullers as a starter, much less an Astro, is unknown as well.
That leaves a lot of open spots in the rotation for AJ Blubaugh, and I firmly think he will fill one of those spots in 2026 and be a great buy low player to target.
Thank You!
Whether you have consistently read this series all year or have just read a few here and there, I just want to say thank you for taking the time to do so, and for some of you, consistently leaving comments. We are all here because we enjoy fantasy baseball on a deeper level, so I hope you enjoy these posts as much as I enjoy writing them.
This series will return next season. But the good news is you aren’t getting rid of me until then. Nope, starting on Oct. 9, the first installment of the Top Dynasty Players for 2026 by position will drop, with the relievers kicking off the series.
Until then, enjoy the major league playoffs!
