Be sure to read Part 1 here and Part 2 here!
Dominate your draft! Conquer your league! Humiliate your friends! It’s the time of year when some non-Razzball sites try to lure you into paying $19.95 by promising you success not just in fantasy baseball but in military takeover. Destroy! Obliterate! Decimate! I don’t know about you, but I’m turned off by fantasy baseball ads that sound more like commands from a war general than ways to improve how you look at some numbers.
There are three keys to fantasy success, and those kind of sites aren’t selling any of them.
The first is Time Invested.
The second is Skill.
Before I tell you the third, is anyone else addicted to this stupid Safeway Monopoly game? I know I’m not going to win, but I keep hearing this voice inside my head saying “maybe no one else is trying as hard as you are… maybe you’ve got one of the rare pieces that they only make one of…” If you ever thought fantasy baseball was a waste of time, lady and gentlemen, I present Safeway Monopoly. I swear I spend over an hour each week going through those annoying little stickers, all of which I already own. Success in Safeway Monopoly is different than success in fantasy baseball. There’s no skill – anyone can lick stamps and put them on a board. There’s no benefit to the time you invest – I have some friends who haven’t won squat despite shopping exclusively at Safeway and scouring the internet to find rare pieces. Yet, another friend of mine won $200 on it with no effort. You know why? Luck. Those who win at Safeway Monopoly have one thing: luck. And so do some fantasy baseball players. The third component to fantasy baseball success is luck.
I once was in a league with a guy who wasn’t just new to fantasy baseball, he was new to SPORTS. Let that sink in for a moment. When the season began, he didn’t know what AVG meant, what RBIs were, which parks were good for hitters, who the star players were, nothing. His roster construction was a travesty, his bench was stacked with hitters who he should have been playing everyday and he had exactly three starting pitchers, one for each SP slot. Believe it or not, he finished only one game out of making the playoffs. How did this happen? Simple. He got lucky.
But luck alone isn’t enough. To find success in fantasy baseball, you need two of the three components. Guys like me who are serious about playing are always going to invest time in setting their optimum lineup, proposing trades, analyzing free agents. So then all I need is to either play skillfully or get lucky. If neither happens, I lose.
If you get terribly unlucky, say your first three picks all get injured, you can still win. Just be sure to put the time and work into making great trades, picking up the best free agents, and playing the right players on the right days. You gotta skill your way out of it.
Is it possible to increase your luck? No, but you can mitigate risk. Here are some things I don’t do and some things I do-do. (Heh heh heh… do do. Like doo doo. Poop is funny…)
Side note: When it comes to fantasy baseball, I embrace diversity as much as Donald Trump. Every league I have played in for 10 years has been a H2H, 12-16 team mixed league with a snake draft. I’d be up to try roto or points or auction but I play what my friends play and they aren’t into trying new things. I say this because it’s possible that some of this logic does not apply to other formats. My apologies.
- Go for floor, not upside in the first 1-2 rounds. Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa could be spectacular, but they could also fall flat on their faces. In redraft leagues give me Steady Eddie’s like McCutcheon, Kershaw or MCab instead.
- Make a player show you who he is for more than one season. I’m sorry, but I want to see more from JD Martinez and AJ Pollock. Do it again, then I’ll spend a 2nd rounder. Yes, I might miss out, but I’m just naturally skeptical. I kind of want to see more out of Keuchal and, to a degree, Arrieta too.
- In general, grab NL pitchers. They don’t have to deal with the DH and have a lot of spacious ballparks to pitch in (SF, LA, Miami, NYM, Petco, Pitt, etc). It also seems that there are more elite hitters in the AL right now.
- Don’t draft injury-prone guys early. I have never owned Tulo, and this year I won’t be owning Grey’s love thing (Stanton). He just seems to get injured a lot and he’s already dealing with a sore knee. I ain’t messin’ with that.
- Know that luck comes into play in H2H. Check it out: you’re feeling all groovy because you won your matchup 8-4, but chances are if you simply would have had a different opponent you might have lost 5-7. Some weeks your ace will start twice, sometimes you will have to face two start pitchers. It’s the luck of the draw (shout-out to The Grouch).
- If you want to get “lucky”, target players who were unlucky last year. Meghan Trainor says it’s all about that bass, but I say it’s all about that babip. Sano got lucky last year. EXTREMLY lucky. He led the league in babip at .396, while striking out 35% of the time. Sure he has power, but he was lucky to have an average that high. I’m also expecting a bit of a rebound in average from Pujols, who had a .217 babip last year. For pitchers, I’m not going near Marco Estrada and his league leading .217 babip, which is insane. Arrieta was 3rd with .247, and Keuchel was 9th with .269 which increases my suspicions toward these two. But it could be that they are great pitchers, and balls that get put into play vs them are weak grounders or fly balls.
- Make your own luck through trades. When the draft ends, the season has begun. As soon as my draft is done, I am looking at free agents – sorting by ownership % those didn’t get drafted and deciding if I should pick anyone up. If not, I’m putting guys on my watch list. I usually have 20+ on my watch list. Then I’m looking at everyone’s roster. Who didn’t get a closer? Who needs another SP? Can I upgrade one of my hitters by offering a 2-for-1 and pickup an intriguing free agent as well? Can I sell an arm for a bat? Whenever a hot prospect comes up, pick him and see if anyone’s interested. Win your trades and you increase your chances of winning your league.
So there you have it, everything I know about winning in fantasy baseball, yours for three installments of free fifty free.
Bring on the season already!!!
