The late ’80s through the mid ’90s represents something of a golden age for television sitcoms in my opinion. While Seinfeld, The Simpsons, and Married With Children were the three shows that stood out the most for me during this time period, there were several other programs that were quite entertaining in their own right despite not being quite on the level of those classics. One such program was Charles in Charge, which starred Scott Baio as the title character, Willie Aames as Buddy, the goofy, idiotic sidekick, and the lovely Nicole Eggert as Jaime, the teenage heartthrob. The storylines and jokes were cheesy, the acting was mediocre at best, but the show was always entertaining. And a young Nicole Eggert is probably better described as smokin’ hot rather than lovely, especially to a 10-year-old like me at the time. It all worked quite well and is still an underrated show to this day.
What’s my point? Good question! I was getting caught up thinking about Nicole Eggert (NSFW) and had to rein myself back in. Just had to focus on the current Eggert instead of the younger version in order to get back on track. Have you ever seen Blown Away? Dah, refocus! Anyway, it seems to me that Charlie Blackmon is the fantasy baseball equivalent of Charles in Charge – unspectacular, yet solid and consistently underrated. Let’s take a look at his career numbers:
| Season | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 27 | 102 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2.90% | 7.80% | 0.041 | 0.27 | 0.255 | 0.277 | 0.296 |
| 2012 | 42 | 121 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 3.30% | 14.00% | 0.124 | 0.319 | 0.283 | 0.325 | 0.407 |
| 2013 | 82 | 258 | 6 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 2.70% | 19.00% | 0.159 | 0.366 | 0.309 | 0.336 | 0.467 |
| 2014 | 154 | 648 | 19 | 82 | 72 | 28 | 4.80% | 14.80% | 0.152 | 0.315 | 0.288 | 0.335 | 0.44 |
| 2015 | 83 | 360 | 11 | 49 | 36 | 21 | 7.50% | 17.50% | 0.169 | 0.31 | 0.276 | 0.346 | 0.445 |
Despite playing half of his games in the hitting-friendly confines of Coors Field and coming within 1 homer and 2 steals of producing a 20/30 season in 2014, the 29-year-old Blackmon was surprisingly somewhat of an afterthought on draft day this year (NFBC ADP of 80.14; ESPN ADP of 136.2). Those who believed that his 2014 season was more of a legitimate breakout rather than a fluke have been rewarded handsomely. Blackmon is the only MLB player who’s on a 20/40 pace this season, and his 49/11/36/21/.276 batting line entering Thursday places him 22nd overall on the Razzball player rater.
Is this production sustainable? Let’s take a look at Blackmon’s batted ball data to see if any changes have occurred in that area:
| Season | LD% | GB% | FB% | IFFB% | HR/FB | Soft% | Med% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 16.10% | 47.10% | 36.80% | 12.50% | 3.10% | 26.40% | 57.10% | 16.50% |
| 2012 | 20.70% | 48.90% | 30.40% | 3.60% | 7.10% | 19.60% | 55.70% | 24.70% |
| 2013 | 27.20% | 41.50% | 31.30% | 6.60% | 9.80% | 18.10% | 55.30% | 26.60% |
| 2014 | 21.60% | 41.40% | 37.00% | 13.10% | 10.40% | 21.10% | 50.50% | 28.40% |
| 2015 | 25.10% | 40.00% | 34.90% | 2.20% | 12.40% | 12.60% | 52.10% | 35.30% |
Blackmon’s hard hit percentage has steadily improved each season during his MLB career, while his home run to fly ball ratio has steadily increased. That’s likely due in part to his 293.83 ft average fly ball distance this season, which ranks as the 47th best mark in MLB and represents a 19.04 ft increase over his 274.79 mark from last season. His 2.2% infield fly ball percentage is the 14th lowest among all qualified players this season as well.
Now let’s take a look at Blackmon’s plate discipline profile to see if anything has changed in his approach:
| Season | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 34.00% | 66.70% | 50.60% | 79.60% | 91.80% | 87.80% | 6.10% |
| 2012 | 32.80% | 67.70% | 47.90% | 75.90% | 90.00% | 84.50% | 7.30% |
| 2013 | 37.80% | 68.60% | 51.80% | 71.70% | 91.00% | 83.40% | 8.70% |
| 2014 | 39.00% | 70.10% | 52.70% | 75.40% | 92.60% | 85.40% | 7.50% |
| 2015 | 24.40% | 60.90% | 40.80% | 66.10% | 93.60% | 84.50% | 6.10% |
Blackmon is swinging at a career-low 2.24% of pitches outside of the strike zone, and his overall swing percentage is down almost 12 percent from last season. That would help to explain his career high 7.5% BB% this season. Doesn’t hurt that his 6.1 SwStr% is the lowest that it’s been since his rookie year as well.
I’d be remiss not to provide a suitable comp for Blackmon, of course. This week’s victim is none other than Pittsburgh Pirates stud outfielder Starling Marte. Here are the stats that each of these players has produced since the beginning of the 2014 MLB season:
| Name | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marte | 215 | 875 | 26 | 117 | 104 | 46 | 5.70% | 24.00% | 0.168 | 0.36 | 0.287 | 0.346 | 0.455 |
| Blackmon | 237 | 1008 | 30 | 131 | 108 | 49 | 5.80% | 15.80% | 0.158 | 0.313 | 0.284 | 0.339 | 0.442 |
While Marte is generally considered to be a breakout star and a 20/30 player, Blackmon hasn’t quite earned that same level of respect from the fantasy community. However, over the last year and a half, Blackmon has essentially been Marte with a lower strikeout rate. A power/speed player in his prime who plays half of his games in the fantasy utopia that is Colorado, it’s time to give Blackmon his due. If his owner doesn’t value him like the top 40 fantasy asset that he is, go get him at a discount.
Final Verdict:
