It’s the time of week you have been waiting for – another edition of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players. This week the spotlight falls on Houston Astros rookie Spencer Arrighetti.
The right-hander is the type of player that dynasty players are always looking for – the under the radar dude who is a low risk, high reward player. Arrighetti was not drafted out of high school, so he played for TCU in 2019 where he was used as a reliever for all but one of his 16 games.
He then transferred to Navarro Junior College for the 2020 season, which was wiped out due to Covid. In 2021 he pitched for the University of Louisiana, starting 13 of the 16 games he appeared in, and was drafted in the sixth round by Houston.
The Astros did not select Arrighetti due to outstanding stats in college. What they saw was a pitcher who had raw stuff that could be unleashed with the right coaching and training. One full year after being drafted he finished the season at Double-A and led all Astros minor leaguers in strikeouts with 152 in 106.1 innings of work.
Last season he split his time between Corpus Christi and Triple-A Sugar Land and started this season at Sugar Land but was recalled to the parent club after making only two starts for the Space Cowboys.
Let’s dive in and take a look at Arrighetti.
The Statistics
| W-L | G-GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAA | 9-6 | 32-14 | 100.2 | 4.11 | 1.321 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 9.8 | 2.75 |
| Minors | 19-15 | 63-42 | 253.1 | 4.37 | 1.334 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 11.5 | 2.64 |
| Astros | 3-5 | 9-9 | 43.2 | 5.98 | 1.649 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 10.5 | 2.22 |
| Last 7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | 1.182 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 12.3 | 2.50 |
| April | 0-3 | 3-3 | 10.2 | 10.97 | 2.344 | 15.3 | 6.2 | 12.7 | 2.14 |
| May | 3-2 | 6-6 | 33.0 | 4.36 | 1.424 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 9.8 | 2.25 |
The stats don’t paint a pretty picture when it comes to Arrighetti. His career ERA in college was a 4.11 with a pedestrian strikeout rate and a somewhat high walk rate. His career ERA in the minors also isn’t that great, coming in a 4.37. While he did see a significant jump in his strikeout rate, his walk rate also increased.
So why have the Astros been so high on him and why should you think about making Arrighetti a pitcher to target?
The Tools
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The Four Seamer / Cutter / Change
Arrighetti was not a hard thrower in college, sitting at 90 to 91 mph while touching 94. Since joining the Astros, his fastball has increased to an average of 93.7 mph and can hit 97. The fastball doesn’t have much drop to it and averages 22% more horizontal break compared to league average. Despite the improvement to the pitch, it has been his least effective one this season.
Throwing the four seamer 40% of the time, opponents are hitting .365 with a .556 slugging percentage with only a 21.8% Whiff%.
While the four seamer has been hit hard, his cutter is quickly become a go-to pitch. Throwing it 22% of the time this season, opposing batters have only a .182 average and .273 slugging percentage against it with a 28.6 Whiff%.
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Breaking Pitches
Arrighetti featured a slider along with his fastball during his collegiate days. But he has basically ditched the pitch with the Astros (only two thrown this season), instead going his curve and morphing the slider into a sweeper he throws at an average of 80.7 mph.
The curve is thrown 21.6% of the time by Arrighetti and has been a solid pitch for him. Coming in 78 mph, opponents are hitting only .179 against the pitch with a .282 slugging percentage. Meanwhile, he throws his sweeper 10% of the time with a slash line against it of .267/.400. It is a pitch that he is still developing, but one he is gaining more confidence in.
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The Command
This is the part of the game Arrighetti must improve and is why his numbers look the way they do. His pitches miss bats, allowing him to rack up strikeouts. But his pitches also miss the strike zone – a lot. With the Astros he is averaging 4.7 walks per nine innings, a higher rate than the minors and in college.
Because he falls behind too much, he has had to throw his fastball in the zone, leading to a lot of hard hits. Of the 23 hits that have come against the fastball, nine have been doubles and two have sailed over the fence. Falling behind in the count has never been a formula for success in the majors.
The Future
So you are probably asking yourself “why is a pitcher with a 5.98 ERA and 1.65 WHIP an up-and-coming dynasty player?” Well, the answer is because he is a pitcher who has shown the ability to adjust to better hitting as he has progressed through the Astros system. And now he is doing that at the MLB level.
Arrighetti had a horrible major league debut on April 10 in Kansas City. The Royals roughed him up to the tune of seven runs on seven hits and three walks in three innings. In his third start against the Cubs in Chicago, he allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks in 3.2 innings. By the end of the month, he was 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA and 2.24 WHIP.
The month of May, however, was a month in which Arrighetti showed he can succeed at this level. Overall he went 3-2 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. His strikeout rate dropped from 12.7/9 to 9.8/9, but his walk rate dropped as well, from 6.2/9 to 4.4 (not great, but much better). And his ERA could be lower if the Astros bullpen didn’t allow some of the runners they inherited to score.
In his last three starts, Arrighetti has been at his best, going 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. In 17.1 innings, he has allowed only 14 hits with 21 strikeouts. Against Seattle on Thursday, the right-hander had his best outing as a major leaguer. In six shutout innings of work, he limited the Mariners to only two hits and three walks while striking out a career high eight batters.
Unless Arrighetti learns to command his pitches, he is not going to be an ace or even a No. 2 pitcher. But he can certainly be a solid No. 3 pitcher who will deliver strikeouts, one of the few stats a starting pitcher can control in dynasty baseball, and eventually regular quality starts and a solid ERA. He is readily available in Yahoo and ESPN leagues, making him a very low risk, high reward player at this moment.
But I firmly believe he will be a high reward player for the next several years.
