The season starts next week, and bless sweet Dexter Fowler’s knee-high socks because it snowing in Chicago as I rewrite the second draft of this week’s Blurbstomp. Every year, we have a false Spring in the middle of March, which is then followed by another three weeks of Winter that everyone laments as “bizarre” or “unfair.” No. It is expected, which is why I’m both sad and happy there is no baseball this week. Sad because ownership is garbage, as evidenced by John Fisher and Bob Nutting, both trust fund infants, laughing as they steal the Competitive Balance Task funds from the piggy banks they call baseball teams and decimate their Opening Day lineups. I’m happy because a slew of games would have been canceled, which always shatters my fragile excitement for the beginning of the great stat-stuffing extravaganza.
Meanwhile, pore over those Spring Training blurbs! Take advantage of those not as quick to realize that seemingly every other closer has been displaced at this point. Whither Emmanuel Clase? I half expect Francona to announce that they’re going to a committee just to spite the crowd drafting closers in the first three rounds of drafts in January. These are things that I do before the beginning of the season after reading a morning’s worth of blurbs:
- I’ve already taken in most of Razzball – all of it is tasty, although these days I’m checking out Keelin’s Injury Report and any mention of a closer in the search function
- Check if Jeff Zimmerman has updated “Mining the News” for line-up tweaks, personnel curios, the kind of stuff you always say you’re looking up but never do
- Scan Baseballpress.com for their line-up postings (they’re generally quicker than most sites)
- Scan Twitter for beat writer ramblings, have a giggle at some Bob Nightengale, and attempt to shut the app down before I get angry
- Read some more blurbs as the day progresses
I am not glued to a screen, although my wife would argue with that sentiment (insert laugh track, followed by gunshot, followed by audience gasp, followed by puppy barking, followed by audience saying “awwwww”)! However, if I have a spare minute in the bathroom, waiting for my kid to get out of school, or before a meeting, I’m usually scarfing down all the scraps I can lap up. I do not suggest you do the same, nor do I judge my behavior as normal, or even acceptable. I have long been an impressionable person when it comes to FMLB, and I’ll forever believe that Glen Tartabull is *this* close to breaking out into superstardom based on a Topp Rated Rookie card.
My point is to have a routine, and supplement your blurb consumption with content that will remind you that while confirmation and recency bias are everyone’s best friends, it’s always good to get those alternative viewpoints. If not for alternative facts, I wouldn’t have already accepted our Lizard overlords and saviors! On to the blurbs!
A Blurbstomp Reminder
We will analyze player blurbs from a given evening, knowing that 1-2 writers are usually responsible for all the player write-ups posted within an hour of the game results. We will look at:
- Flowery Diction – how sites juice up descriptions of player performance
- Q and Q – when a site contradicts a player valuation on back-to-back blurbs
- The Blame Game – a player takes on the fault of the team as a whole
- Shadow of the Colossus – when a blurb misremembers the greatness of a player
The hope is that by season’s end, we’ll all feel more confident about our player evaluations when it comes to the waiver wire. We will read blurbs and not be swayed by excessive superlatives, faulty injury reporting, and micro-hype. I will know that I have done my job when Grey posts, and there isn’t a single question about catchers that he did not address in his post. Onward to Roto Wokeness!
Flowery Diction
Trevor Rogers allows two runs to Cardinals
Trevor Rogers allowed two runs over 3 1/3 innings on Thursday against the Cardinals. He gave up four hits and walked one while striking out six.
Fantasy Impact: Rogers’ final line was less than ideal, but all that matters is that he’s healthy. When he is, there’s upside as a No. 2 starter, but it’s safer to draft him as a No. 3 or 4. Absent a setback before the season, feel free to continue to move him up your draft boards.
Source: Fantasypros.com
Maybe I’m crazy, but I see Rogers as a #2 starter at this point. Also, how is he moving up people’s draft boards based on this performance? Is he moving up the boards because of the analysis? On their own site, Rogers has been ranked as the 15th best starter by at least one website. I then read the site’s analysis of Rogers for this upcoming season:
“But if you’re not in a dynasty league, don’t overpay. Rogers is unlikely to match his 2.65 ERA from last season, and it’s safe to expect some WHIP regression. His impressive strikeout rate is for real and there’s a huge runway in front of him.”
He had a 2.64 ERA last season, but that’s the world’s smallest nit. Why are expecting WHIP regression? There’s a gap of a whole run between his FIP and xFIP. Is it that? Also, his big K numbers help with the WHIP. Maybe he takes a hit because of the DH? I’m so confused by all of this analysis. Of all the young starters on crappy NL East teams, Rogers strikes me as solid floor high ceiling guy. I am spectacularly confused, which is fine. This is how I live my life everywhere, every day. Confused, making lists, not completing them, but giving myself credit for remembering to eat, sleep, and sometimes even clean!
Flowery Diction
Bryson Stott went 2-for-2 with a double and a run scored on Thursday against the Yankees.
Fantasy Impact: Stott is coming dangerously close to winning the third base job instead of Alec Bohm, as his strong defense and solid spring have opened some eyes. Stott has hit for average in the minors and has enough pop to matter, especially in Philadelphia. He’s a name to watch in deeper formats and put on the back end of your bench in case everything breaks right.
Source: Fantasypros.com
Variance in analysis from site to site is important when attempting to avoid being stomped by the sheer hype in a blurb. Yes, Stott hit around .295 last year spread across three different levels in Philly’s farm system. He also managed 71/16/49/10 slash line, which looks yummy, but the bulk of that performance came against sub-Triple-A pitching. Most projection systems have him capped at 13 HR/8 SB, managing a batting average closer to .240 than .300. You know who has an easier path to playing time and will be cheaper without the hype? Lower your chin, or your eyes to the next section. I don’t know how you read, don’t be so surprised! Some people read at their chin angle, and don’t google it, Big Tech doesn’t know everything.
Q&Q
Pirates acquired INF/OF Josh VanMeter from the Diamondbacks in exchange for RHP Listher Sosa.
VanMeter was designated for assignment on Sunday. The 27-year-old can play everywhere, but has hit just .212/.300/.364 with 16 homers in his 649 plate appearances since 2019. He’ll be just a bench option for the Pirates — or a starter who doesn’t offer fantasy significance.
Source: Rotoedgesportsworld.com
Let’s get the most important piece of analysis out of the way: If your name has a “Van” in it, there needs to be dead space on either side of said vehicular surname. It’s not Dick VanDyke. If we let this slide as a culture, we’re going to be seeing random capitalization all over our language. bArry bOnds. DaRRen DauLTon. bOOf bOnser. Never mind, I love it, let’s keep doing it.
Statistically, one of Josh VanMeter’s seasons doesn’t hit for me. 2020’s pandemic-shortened season is an asterisk for most players. If we toss out that season (which is a practice I generally decry, so enjoy the selective insanity), we get 59/14/59/12/.223 in 502 AB’s. While this slash line is still pretty mediocre, one goes over VanMeter’s game logs and sees a lot of pinch-hitting appearances. This can mess with a whole litany of things for any player of baseball. What I’m saying is this: If you’re in an NL-only league, and you’re looking for a flier, this guy is playing for the Pirates. Bob Nothing is looking to put the least amount of money on the field every day. VanMeter might get a shot to play every day, and he’ll produce better HR/SB numbers than J.P. Crawford if that’s the case.
The Blame Game
Julio Rodriguez went 2-2 with three runs scored, a homer and a stolen base on Thursday in Cactus League action.
A day after having a “learning day” that saw him make a baserunning error and misplay a ball in center, Rodríguez was outstanding — again — on Thursday, showing off his improved speed with a single and a steal, and then hitting an opposite-field inside the park homer off of Emmanuel Clase. The wunderkind prospect has hit .360/.429/.720 in the Cactus League, and looks more than ready to be an everyday player for Seattle. The question is whether the Mariners will value his contributions more than the possibility of manipulating his service time.
Source: Rotoedgesportsworld.com
There is no question what the Mariners value after seeing them hold Jarred Kelenic in the minors until May. There are no questions regarding how Major League Baseball views their young players. They are entries in a spreadsheet with projected contract numbers for the next 10 years next to their names. The “worst case” scenario for teams is that players over-perform their projections and the projected salary number increases in the spreadsheet. One thing the Owners Lockout did to me personally was to attack my very sanity with this type of baseball fan: Guy who hates three true outcomes and Moneyball and blames the players, but when faced with the lockout, sides with the owners and says that baseball is a business and players are just products.
TLDR – The last sentence of this blurb should read, “The Mariners will most likely send Rodriguez to Triple-A to start the season.”
That’s it for this week of the Blurbstomp! I listened to Christop De Babalon’s 1997 masterpiece “If You’re Into It I’m Out of It,” and while the music is incredible, I mostly appreciate that his name didn’t get VanMeter’ed. Keep sending me emails at carazzball@gmail, and I’ll work you into my article, for better or for worse!
