Find Value in Speed by Exploiting ESPN ADP

Speed is the easiest 5×5 category to find late in the draft.  In most drafts last year, Rajai Davis was an afterthought.  A guy to pick up in the late rounds of 12-team drafts and a guy who probably went undrafted in many 10-team drafts.  Last year I played in one Razzball Commenter League, and in that league I took Davis at pick #240.  He ended up finishing #111 on Rudy’s Player Rater thanks in part to amassing 36 stolen bases.   His performance wasn’t particularly above his normal levels, with the exception of batting average.  He did receive more ABs than projected.  Even if he hadn’t played more than projected I’m fairly sure he would still found his way into the top 150-200ish on the 2014 player rater.  Which is to say, in multiple ways, that he was a value.

Now it’s time to look at some speedsters that might return good value for 2015.  For every player projected for 20 or more stolen bases in the Razzball/Steamer projections, we are going to compare that players ESPN Average Draft Position (ADP) Rank to his Razzball/Steamer projections based player rater rank (aka Rudy’s player rater).  Values that are both large and positive are what we are looking for when we subtract player rater Rank from ESPN ADP because this means that the projections based performance will make that player a value relative to their ADP.   First the table itself, then a brief discussion on the players that I think are worth targeting based on the table.

Notes: Do not draft the players with a positive ADP-Rank according to the Player Rater numbers.  If you do you are greatly diminishing the chance they will outperform their draft pick slot.  Instead draft them near their ADP Rank.  I decided to include $ Value because I know for me personally I can get a much better grip on a player’s value when I see that number as opposed to when I see a player’s rank.  Now onto some player analysis:

Billy Hamilton‘s SB projection is amazing and the player rater thinks he is an incredible value relative to draft position.  However, if you draft him in the 4th round you will be left chasing HRs and RBIs for much of the draft and you may still come up short.  I wouldn’t fault anyone for drafting him there, but I would try instead to find speed later in the draft or attempt to take him in the 5th/6th rounds.

Dee Gordon only represents a marginal value but he stands out because of his position.  Most of the other middle infielders on the list have a negative ADP – Rank value.  I think he makes a decent target.

Ben Revere may be the best source of speed to be had in later rounds of 2015 drafts and based on these numbers is my highest recommendation to those trying to get speed late.

Starling Marte is a great option if you can’t stomach Hamilton’s AVG and RBI totals or if you were targeting Hamilton and missed out.  He doesn’t replace his speed but is better all around.

Jarrod Dyson is a guy that doesn’t get a ton of PAs but he pinch runs a lot.  He’s a guy you consider picking up for the final month or two of your rotisserie league if you think your league standings suggest his SBs will make up for the hit you take in R/HR/RBI.  If you did you would just keep him locked into your roster on game day even if he’s not a starter because of the pinch running.

Danny Santana see Dee Gordon.

Jose Ramirez is Danny Santana for deeper leagues, although the main difference in their projections is Santana’s greater playing time.

Steven Souza is a prospect and we’ll know much more about his prospects as the season nears.  At this point though his playing time looks nearly assured and I can’t even fathom why he’s going so late in drafts but I suspect it’s not going to stay that way for much longer.  He’s worth snagging at a point where the risk is minimal, 15th round or really however early you like.

Coco Crisp could be viewed as a player in decline with regards to SB.  His totals the last four years are 49, 39, 21, 19.  Alternatively you could look at that and say he’s leveled off at around 20 SB, and that’s what he’s projected for.  A decent source of speed and overall value if you wait to draft him.

Charlie Blackmon could represent an outstanding value.  Obviously the ESPN expert rankings list have a great effect on ESPN ADP.  They rank Blackmon 128.   I’m thinking the reason he’s not ranked higher might have to do with playing time projections.  Rudy (Razzball/Steamer) projects him for 548 ABs, ESPN projects him for 453.  If you are in a daily roster moves league with hitters on your bench you shouldn’t really even care that much about the difference in ABs and he should be a prime target.  Likewise, if you think he will attain those 548 ABs…. then he should be a prime target.

Our hero Rajai Davis is the only player with a negative ADP-Rank score I’ve included here.  Rudy sees him at 259 ABs while ESPN sees him at 406.  Rajai Davis is in a sense your more risky Ben Revere.  More risky because of the playing time issue.  But If you need speed late in the draft don’t hesitate to draft Davis.  If he doesn’t play enough he can be one of the first players you drop from your roster.

The other guys with significant negative ADP-Rank values are guys to consider avoiding unless they have fallen in your draft to near their Rank.  Let’s look at a concrete example by comparing the projected stat lines of Lorenzo Cain vs Coco Crisp.  I chose this pair because they have similar ADPs:

Easy to see why Coco Crisp is a draft day target and Lorenzo Cain is not…