Daniel Vogelbach, 1B/DH – Seattle Mariners
Owned in 11% of ESPN leagues, 39% of Yahoo leagues
Vogelbach has long waited to get consistent at-bats at the major league level, and he finally seems to be carving out a significant role in the Mariners offense. In his past four games played, he is 8-for-13 (.615) while hitting 5 home runs, driving in 9 runs, and scoring 6. Over those four games he has walked four times while striking out twice. Vogelbach has proven to have a keen eye at the dish across every level he has played at. In his 68 games of limited MLB action over the past couple years, he has walked at a 13.5% clip. Last year at AAA his walk rate was an impressive 20.4% over 84 games, and was 14% in 125 games at AAA in 2017.
Vogelbach has seen an extended stay in the minors, but has improved as a hitter in every season he has played. He has certainly shown he has nothing left to prove at AAA. In 2017 he swatted 17 HR and slashed .290/.388/.455 in 541 plate appearances. Last season he took another step forward in the power department, smashing 20 HR in just 378 plate appearances while slashing .290/.434/.545. Vogelbach posted a .256 ISO, .426 wOBA, and 157 wRC+, and struck out at just a 15.6% rate. His walk rate was nearly 5% better than his K rate, a huge backing to his improved approach at the plate. He has displayed power, patience, and has cut down his strikeout rates and seems poised to continue to make some noise in the majors. He had 4 home runs across 102 MLB plate appearances last year, yet needed just 24 PA this season to swat his 5th home run.
Is Vogelbach just another guy that gets off to a hot start, just to slowly fade away over the course of a long season? His underlying metrics suggest otherwise. Vogelbach has the highest average exit velocity in the entire MLB at 99.6 MPH. His 75% of batted ball events that have been over 95 MPH also lead the league. Obviously we are still working with small samples, but it is still impressive regardless. He’s not only been seeing some success at the plate, but he’s also hitting the piss out of the ball. His Brls/PA of 16.7% is 5th best in the league, behind just Mike Trout, Pete Alonso, Gary Sanchez, and Jose Abreu. Side note: Pete Alonso is still unowned in some leagues, and I just don’t get it. If you are in the 35% of ESPN leagues or 27% of Yahoo leagues where he is available, Go. Get. Him.
Seattle has a scored a league-leading 98 runs in their 12 games played thus far. Their 32 home runs are also a league-best, with the next closest team at 24. The only unfortunate thing about Seattle’s offense being so potent lately is that he will continue to face competition for at-bats. He still must compete for playing time with Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce at 1st/DH, but his recent production may force Seattle’s hand. Encarnacion is off to a hot start of his own, and Bruce has already swatted 6 home runs. This may see Vogelbach fall into a platoon role if he continues to struggle against lefties, though he would still be able to see plenty of starts against RHP. Once Kyle Seager is back from injury that will further complicate things with Ryon Healy back into the 1B mix.
There is still a month or so before that becomes an issue. Until then you must ride the hot hand, and Vogelbach is one of the hottest hitters in baseball at the moment. He is definitely worth an add if you need some power, and hitting in the heart of the hottest offense in baseball will further drive his value if he keeps producing. ZiPS has him slashing .254/.362/.450 the rest of the way across 117 games, adding 20 home runs and 63 runs batted in. For a comparison, Luke Voit is projected for 21 HR and a .260 average from here on out. The hype train on Voit has been real, so that’s good company for Vogelbach to be in. A guy good for a ~.250 average and 20 HR is a good find on the wire, and Vogelbach has the metrics to suggest this projection is obtainable.
