The champ is here! The champ is here! Step aside, step aside y’all, we’re dancing into the winner’s circle to profile the top prospects of the World Series Champion Houston Astros. To say the Astros have built a winner through their astute drafting and international prowess is an understatement. Players like Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Lance McCullers all were developed in house, and plenty of additional homegrown talent was shipped out to reinforce the MLB club for the stretch run. So this is definitely a different system than the one profiled by yours truly over the last couple of offseasons. With a slew of graduations and trades, there’s a collection of high end talents from 1-4, followed by some above average high minors types, a handful of talented international lottery tickets, and a plethora of hard-throwing pen types. Houston seems to tread between a bunch of labels when it comes to pinpointing the best way to describe the system, but the most apt description is a good player development organization that needs to restock in the 2018 draft and international signing period. Without further ado it’s the Houston Astros Top Prospects.
1) Kyle Tucker, OF Astros | Level: AA | Age: 21 | 2017 Stats: .274/.346/.528, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 21 SB
Another highly drafted Houston athlete with a superstar skillset. Tucker is already considered by many a frontrunner for the top fantasy prospect in baseball heading into 2019. Permitted he doesn’t make his MLB debut in 2018, and exceed his rookie limits. The outfielder was 20 years old for all of 2017, and after destroying the Carolina League saw promotion at the end of May to AA. He’s had his struggles in Corpus Christi, but through it all has hit for power, driven in runs, and displayed dynamic offensive ability in the batter’s box and on the basepaths. He wore down a bit in August but that shouldn’t come as a surprise for a player so young. There’s more questions about the hit tool now than there were coming into the draft, but the power has already exceeded my expectations. The swing is unorthodox, with an extreme uppercut stroke, meaning he’s going to popup a lot, but also hit a ton of flyballs. In my opinion his approach is tailor made for the current environment. I’ve seen his bat path compared to Cody Bellinger, and (breath) Ted Williams. His hands are super-quick, and that drives his elite bat speed. Tucker is long and lean now, but his frame looks like he has the ability to add 20 lbs of muscle by maturity. At peak I foresee a line of .280/.360/.520 with 30 homers, and 15-20 steals. ETA: 2019
2) Forrest Whitley, RHP Astros | Level: AA | Age: 20 | 2017 Stats: 5-4, 92.1 IP, 2.83 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 143 K, 34 Bb
A four pitch arsenal, whiff inducing ability, above average control, and big tilt on his fastball. Whitley is one of the most sought after arms in dynasty leagues. Ranking 25th on my latest update of my Top 100, he was the third pitching prospect taken in the on-going Rotowire Dynasty Invitational. Even that statement needs context, the two rookie eligible pitchers taken ahead of him were Shohei Ohtani and Alex Reyes. Players who in one way or another really shouldn’t be prospects, but are. It’s tough to watch Whitley throw and not fall in love. He mixes a low to mid 90’s four-seamer that touches 97 with slight cutting action, a mid-70’s curveball with depth and bite, a mid-80’s slider with movement equal to his curve, and a low 80’s changeup he’s shown feel for. It’s rare to see a prep righty so big, and so in sync with his mechanics and timing. That’s not to say he doesn’t struggle to repeat his delivery from time to time, but it’s important to consider the prep righty profile, as most in that bucket are considered development projects that can take a few years. A big jumper from the beginning of the season, Whitley is on track to be the universal top pitching prospect in the game by August of 2018. ETA: 2019
3) Yordan Alvarez, 1B/OF Astros | Level: A+ | Age: 20 | 2017 Stats: .304/.379/.481 12 HR, 69 RBI, 8 SB
The talented 20 year old with the powerful lefthanded swing, burst onto the scene putting up monster numbers in the Midwest League with the Astros affiliate Quad Cities. He hit upon promotion to high A Buies Creek, but struggled for stretches following. His K% improved at high A, but he walked less, and didn’t get to his power with the same frequency. I’m willing to dismiss it, as he was young for the level. Struggles aside, Alvarez is one of the top power bats in the minors. ETA: 2019
4) J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Astros | Level: Rk | Age: 21 | 2017 Stats: 0-0, 10 IP, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9 K, 5 Bb
Excellent fastball/slider combo, with many scouts labeling Bukauskus’ slider as the best breaking ball in the draft. Not very big at 6 feet, 190 LBS, so he gets comped to other short starters with good collegiate track records like Sonny Gray and Carson Fulmer. There’s high end upside here, but some pen risk questions too. Bukauskas was the “Ralph Special” of the draft, meaning a small righty with oodles of upside. It’s not hyperbole to say his slider is in contention for “the singe best pitch in the 2017 draft”, pairs it with a mid 90’s fastball, and an average changeup. JB really lives off of the nastiness of that slider and how well he commands it, helps the fastball play up. Definitely some pen concerns, but there’s high end upside. No word on the quality of his gooch maintenance (claws up). ETA: 2019
5) Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Astros | Level: AAA | Age: 23 | 2017 Stats: 10-4, 123.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 146 Ks, 38 Bb
If you’re not aware, I have been doing a weekly YouTube baseball show through Fantrax the past year plus. Over the course of the most recent season I’ve spoken with Jake Faria, Eric Longenhagen, and the O.G. Prospector John Sickels. You can watch the Sickels show here, but one of the players he identified as being the biggest sleeper in the minors was Rogelio Armenteros. Signed out of Cuba back in 2014 Armenteros was described by Sickels as a pitcher’s pitcher. He’s not the type to over power you with his fastball or rely on one elite pitch playing up his arsenal. Instead he mixes a low 90’s fastball, 70’s curveball with good break, a changeup, and a second breaking ball. The fastball doesn’t have elite velocity, but it’s heavy; the curveball is the jewel of his arsenal, as he manipulates and shapes it as he sees fit. It’s a really nice pitch. The debate on Armenteros is a matter of drastically differing opinions on his changeup quality. Sickels describes it as a “excellent”, while Baseball Prospectus describes it as “soft”. I haven’t seen Armenteros live, but from what I’ve watched on YouTube, he does seem to lack a third offering. That said, he’s a strikethrower with a workhorse body, and a real shot at some starts with one of the best teams in the league. A nice late round sleeper arm in deep leagues, NFBCs, and dynasty formats. ETA: 2018
6) David Paulino, RHP | Level: MLB | Age: 23 | 2017 Stats: 2-0, 29 IP, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34 Ks, 7 Bb
I’m really sick of writing about Paulino, to say I have prospect fatigue is putting it lightly. The giant righty has always flashed above average potential with a big fastball, two above average breaking balls, and a solid changeup. Still he’s fought injuries, a PED suspension, and command issues over the past few seasons. There’s still good mid-rotation stuff here, but that’s if everything maxes out. More than likely he’s going to be a solid middle reliever, but he needs to prove he can get results versus major leaguers. ETA: 2018
7) Freudis Nova, SS/3B | Level: Rk | Age: 17 | 2017 Stats: .247/.342/.355, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 8 SB
An international bluebird that landed in the laps of the Astros, after an agreement with the Marlins deteriorated over a reported failed PED test. There’s a limited amount of reports on Nova, but the label of powerhitter with a defensive home on the leftside of the infield is a helluva drug. This is a very aggressive rank, but I’m banking on an organization with a track record of discovering talent, and a template I’m fond of. He’s not touching the majors for likely 4-5 more years, but there’s serious skills. ETA: 2022
8) Gilberto Celestino, OF | Level: Rk | Age: 18 | 2017 Stats: .268/.331/.379, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 10 SB
Signed for $2.5 million out of the DR back in 2015, Celestino is all speed, defense, and contact at this point. He has an all-fields line-drive approach, and is dangerous on the basepaths, but we’re waiting on over the fence power. I’ve seen comps to the Cubs Albert Almora and I can see that. Scouting reports speak of potential for raw power, and many see him getting to average game pop, which is imperative if he’s going to develop into a fantasy viable outfielder. ETA: 2021
9) Jairo Solis, RHP | Level: Rk | Age: 18 | 2017 Stats: 3-2, 61.1 IP, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 69 Ks, 21 Bb
If Solis were American he wouldn’t yet be draft eligible. But he’s not, so instead he threw over 60 innings across three levels of rookie ball, putting up impressive numbers in the process. His season started in the Dominican Summer League before debuting stateside in the GCL and then finishing his season in the Appy league with Greeneville. Quite a journey for a 17 year old. Despite being immature physically, Solis gets the most out of his stuff. The righty’s arsenal boasts three above average pitches; a low 90’s two-seam fastball with run, a curve he can throw for strikes or bury when in need of an out pitch, and a changeup that sits mid-80’s with good fade. He’s inconsistent at times with his delivery, but that’s common for a hurler his age. There’s a great combination of stuff, feel, and projectability, that make Solis a good bet to be a riser on top prospect lists next season. ETA: 2021
10) Hector Perez, RHP | Level: A+ | Age: 21 | 2017 Stats: 7-6, 107.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 128 Ks, 78 Bb
I have three numbers for you and they perfectly describe Perez at the moment, 10.73 K/9, .205 BAA, 1.45 WHIP. Perez is both that unhittable, and completely out of control. He misses bats with a mid-90’s plus heater and a double plus slider that earns rave reports from scouts. There’s a lot to refine here in order for Perez to have a major league rotation future, but the stuff is so nasty it’s not a bad late round bet in first year player drafts. The upside for something special sneaks him into the top 10 over less exciting options with higher floors. ETA: 2020
11) Cionel Perez, LHP | Level: AA | Age: 21 | 2017 Stats: 6-4, 93.2 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 83 Ks, 27 Bb
A somewhat divisive prospect, as you’ll get a variety of reports on his stuff, and future depending on who you read. The delivery is somewhat high effort, and he’s not the biggest guy, so there’s some durability concerns. The stuff isn’t in question, nor is his ability to throw strikes. There is some quibbling over the quality of his changeup, but overall he gets plus grades on his slider and mid-90’s fastball. He has a few potential pathways to major league success whether as strike throwing mid-rotation lefty or power lefty relief arm. In fact it would not shock me to see Perez pitch in relief for Houston in 2018. ETA: 2019
12) Jonathan Arauz, SS | Level: A | Age: 19 | 2017 Stats: .242/.336/.319, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB
Acquired in the Ken Giles trade, Arauz is a toolsy infielder with a large number of probable outcomes. His bat is quick, and the swing is noisy but it works for him. There’s a lot of risks with his offensive profile, as he’s just an average runner and the power is yet to come. He’s a work in progress, stash and wait type of dynasty prospect, but one that could payoff if he gets to his power. ETA: 2021
13) Corbin Martin, RHP | Level: A- | Age: 22 | 2017 Stats: 0-1, 32.2 IP, 2.20 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 43 Ks, 9 Bb
A second round college arm out of Texas A&M, Martin throws a sinking fastball with a huge range of velocity reports, some as high as 98, while others are as low as 89 MPH. He mixes in a plus curveball, and an above average change, but he lacks front of the rotation upside in my opinion, which limits his fantasy upside. ETA: 2020
14) J.D. Davis, 3B | Level: AAA | Age: 24 | 2017 Stats: .282/.345/.527, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB
There’s a lot of debate as to whether Davis is a major leaguer or not. On face value he’s a tough profile for evaluators as a bat-first power only corner guy. He’s pull happy at the plate, doesn’t walk a ton, and is prone to weak contact and some swing and miss. However through it all, Davis can mash. I personally don’t think a role as second division corner guy is all that out of the question. He made his major league debut in 2017 where he slugged .484 while striking out 29.4% of the time. There’s little opportunity for him in Houston and a trade to an organization with less in the way of infield depth would be ideal. ETA: 2018
15) Jason Martin, OF | Level: AA | Age: 22 | 2017 Stats: .278/.332/.487, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 16 SB
On it’s surface Martin’s production is stellar, but he’s more than likely a decent fourth outfielder. He has the ability to play all three outfield spots, hit for power, and run. Unfortunately none of his offensive tools are strong enough to earn him an everyday big league role in the future. Another player needing a trade to get a shot at the MLB level. ETA: 2019
16) Colin Moran, 1B/3B/OF | Level: AAA | Age: 25 | 2017 Stats: .301/.369/.532, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 0 SB
The 6th overall pick in the 2014 MLB draft, Moran has been a bust of epic sized proportions. I’m fine being the low man on Moran. He lacks the type of power that might help him stick at first base, the only defensive position he’s truly a fit for. His greatest attribute outside of his above average game power, is his approach, but neither add up to anything more than a late career Joe Mauer statline in my mind. Moran however is not without some rays of sunlight. He did add more loft to his swing this year, which resulted in his first .500+ slugging performance of his MiLB career. There’s just nowhere for him in Houston, perhaps there’s some opportunity elsewhere. Unfortunately, 25 year old first base/left field prospects without a track record of power production in the minors aren’t exactly desirable. ETA: 2018
17) J.J. Matijevic, 1B/OF | Level: A | Age: 22 | 2017 Stats: .228/.290/.384, 7 HR, 31 RBI, 11 SB
A competitive balance second rounder out of Arizona, Matijevic has above average raw power and contact, even if he didn’t show much of that in his professional debut. The statline might make you think he’s a speed demon, but that is not the case. He’s a first base/leftfield type, that will have to make his bones with his bat. ETA: 2020
18) Joe Perez, 3B | Level: Rk | Age: 18 | 2017 Level: Did Not Play
A two way prep player many considered a first round talent prior to requiring Tommy John surgery. The Astros prefer him as a 3rd baseman, where his bat should play if he develops above average power. Lots of upside here, but there’s lots of risk, and he’s a ways off. ETA: 2022
19) Jorge Alcala, RHP | Level: A+ | Age: 22 | 7-6, 109.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 95 Ks, 45 Bb
A righthander with a plus upper 90’s fastball, an above average changeup that flashes plus, and an average slider that some evaluators rank ahead of his changeup. Alcala was used as a starter and reliever which is common in the Astros minor league system. He might project as a pen only arm, but the stuff is good enough for him to develop into a decent mid-rotation starter, even if it’s a low probability outcome. ETA: 2020
20) Carlos Machado, OF | Level: Rk | Age: 19 | 2017 Stats: .324/.387/.462, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 6 SB
An advanced teenage bat with a plus hit tool, fringe/average power, and a corner outfield profile. Machado’s contact ability is excellent, making direct contact to the ball, and displaying gap to gap power. There’s still some projection left in his frame pointing to untapped power potential. If Machado is able to continue to hone his hit tool to a 70 skill, and pair it with average to above average power, fantasy owners might have something. The bat is legit. ETA: 2021
Find all of the 30 Minor League Previews, and Offseason Rankings on the Minor League Index
On Twitter as @ProspectJesus
