Fantasy Baseball Advice

If we take a look at the BS meter, we see Heath Bell still owns the pole position. It still appears that three BS this early in the season is the indicator of a closer losing his job. This means Henry Rodriguez is in some tough straights, word.

Otherwise, aside from health, most relievers are “settling down.” The oddest thing on this chart: Chris Perez. The oddest thing not on this chart: Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney (no jinx, jinx?).

Washington Nationals: As noted, Rodriguez is creeping up the BS meter and in rather spectacular fashion: in five appearances since May 8, Rodriguez has pitched 3.2 IPs, allowed nine base runners and posted a 14.37 ERA. He has blown two saves, saved two games and recorded a hold. In the hold, his latest outing, Rodriguez threw 21 pitches, just eight for strikes. Sean Burnett had to come in and clean up the mess for the save. Rodriguez has one more blown save in him before an outright demotion. Given his lack of control, when he blows his next one is anyone’s guess. That said, it’s time to kick the tires on Burnett. When it’s all said and done, Rodriguez will have fine numbers, they will just include masterful and disastrous outings. There is no in between with him and his control. Both Brad Lidge and Drew Storen have just begun throwing following surgeries, with Storen targeting the All-star break.

Detroit Tigers: Jose Valverde, with one of the longer leashes in MLB, would have to get injured to lose the closer role. So, what did he do? He went and hurt his lower back. At the moment, there is absolutely no clarity on the type of injury. Whether Octavio Dotel or Joaquin Benoit get saves during the upheaval is also up in the air. Given how possible it is this situation bears no saves, if I’m speculating, I’ll go Benoit. He’s a good pitcher, whereas Dotel really can’t get lefties out. ROTW for Benoit: 2.89 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 rate. He has been walking guys a bit more and throwing his fastball a lot less, but expect him to get the location under control.

Chicago White Sox: After earning the save Monday night and being, ya know, good at pitching, I fully expect Addison Reed to be the closer ROTW. He’ll put up fine numbers (3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 11.9 K /9 rate). If he’s somehow available, go get him now. This carousel stops here (god I wish I could be comfortable typing that).

New York Mets: Frank Francisco is also jumping up the BS meter, but has received a vote of confidence from his manager and might be tipping his pitches, so there’s optimism he can turn it around. It’s amazing what counts for optimism these days. He did secure his most recent save opportunity, but has also allowed at least one run in his last three outings. For the year, he’s getting a bit jobbed by a pitiful strand rate and enlarged BABIP. He’s still getting a ton of swinging strikes and maintaining his velocity. For some reason, he is throwing his splitter a bit more which could be partly to blame for his walk rate. Or it could be that it’s just 14.2 IPs. With relievers, though, we can’t really make the small sample size argument, as they are judged on SSS all year long. If healthy, I expect Francisco to be fine, posting a 3.15 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.75 K/9 rate ROTW. In fact, I also think Bobby Parnell will end up with the second most saves on the squad, believing there’s a chance both Francisco and Jon Rauch get injured/traded.

Miami Marlins: The Marlins keep winning despite an unreliable bullpen. Since May 1, Heath Bell has two wins, a save and a blown save. During that span, he has pitched five innings, allowed 12 base runners and posted a 9.00 ERA. Meanwhile, Steve Cishek has two wins and two blown saves in May, but has pitched solid and Edward Mujica has three holds, two saves and a blown save. Again, I’d totally avoid this situation if possible. I do think, as commenter @Jack predicted, Cishek will be first in line for saves if this situation ever stabilizes. However, I give him a 55% chance of having the most non-Bell saves with Mujica having a 43% chance and a 2% chance the world ends because of this. ROTW, Bell probably gets the most saves, but it’s going to be ugly.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Scott Downs has been fantastic all year, yet Ernesto Frieri, aka Padres closer of the future, got the final out in a non-save chance Tuesday night. This is likely nothing, but is a bit confusing. I suppose Downs giving up a hit to Daric Barton would make sense to go righty-righty on Kurt Suzuki, but if that’s the case wouldn’t it make sense to give Frieri the bulk of the save opportunities? For the moment, I think Frieri is a sneaky and worthwhile add, even though I’m dubious on whether he can maintain this success away from San Diego. In addition, Jordan Walden has been good lately and really only had two bad outings. ROTW, Walden will post a 3.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.90 K/9 rate. I think he gets the most saves rest of the way, but it’s a toss up with Downs and Frieri performing so well. Don’t rock the boat and all that.

Arizona Diamondbacks: With all the closer disasters, J.J. Putz has somewhat flown under the radar. However, he has allowed runs in five of his 12 appearances. The bulk of the damage came on May 9 when he allowed four runs starting with the bottom of the Cardinals batting order. The Diamondbacks were losing, so it wasn’t a save opportunity, but he made a winnable game totally unwinnable. Still, he pitched a relatively clean frame in his last outing. So far, on the year, he hasn’t walked anyone, is striking out a good number and getting as many ground balls as ever. He has just decided to give up all his HRs early on. He’ll be fine the rest of the season. However, he’s usually good for a DL trip a year and might be traded if the Diamondbacks find themselves out of the race, making David Hernandez a worthy pick-up.

New York Yankees: Of course, David Robertson is injured; it’s that kind of year. The strained oblique will prohibit Robertson from throwing for a week or so. While he believes he can be back in 15 days, don’t most foolish ball players? Enter Rafael Soriano. Soriano has been pretty good this year, only benefiting from allowing no HRs. ROTW, Soriano should be fine, if unspectacular: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.5 K /9 rate. Robertson is worth a stash based on skills alone, but Soriano has the repertoire to take the job and keep it all year.

Chicago White Sox – Last Thursday, I told people to go all in on Addison Reed. Not long afterward, Chris Sale was removed from the rotation, placed in the bullpen and anointed the closer. Since the proclamation, Sale appeared in the 8th inning, blew the lead and Reed got the save chance in extra innings. Now it seems like Ventura prefers to use Sale in high leverage spots in the eighth. In addition, Sale wants to go back to starting, with the only thing stopping that being his health. And, if he’s not healthy, maybe he won’t hold up in the pen. So, for the second time in a week I’m going all in on Reed. If he’s somehow available, grab him. If you can trade for him at below market value, do so.

Chicago Cubs: Apparently something had to be done, given how precious wins are to the floundering Cubs, so Carlos Marmol was removed from the closer nest. In his place, the Cubs are platooning Rafael Dolis (who I mentioned awhile ago) and James Russell. Of course, I also said that Dolis was a more long-term than immediate option and that he sort of sucks. I still see nothing in Dolis that screams solid reliever. Aside from rookie ball, Dolis hasn’t posted a K:BB rate above 2.00. He’s benefiting from a .193 BABIP despite a huge LD rate. In addition, his swinging strike rate is miniscule. Meanwhile, Russell is a fine reliever, but he probably shouldn’t pitch to righties, as they own a .308/.361/.532 line on him. So he’s not going to see a ton of save opportunities. If I was stuck investing in this situation, I’d do whatever I could to trade Dolis. I want no part of him. This is a situation where you’re better off on the second round of speculation, i.e. a return to Marmol or Kerry Wood.

Miami Marlins: You’d think by now, we’d know who was stepping in for Heath Bell. However, while Edward Mujica has gotten and converted the save opportunities, Steve Cishek hasn’t pitched in five days after he threw five innings over a three day span. There is very little debate that Cishek is the better pitcher and it’s certainly possible he’ll get the save opportunities when he can pitch. However, I’m still backing Mujica. He was acquired in the Maybin trade as a back of the bullpen type. Meanwhile Cishek was a fifth round pick in 2007 and hasn’t closed much in the minors, 19 saves in 175 games. From an organizational perspective, Mujica was acquired more as a closer and Cishek as an arm. I must give made respect for @Jack as he almost got me to flip my position. Let’s just say I’m 51% in support of Mujica. UPDATE: Of course the above was written before the Marlins had a hold situation in the 8th and Mujica came in. Clearly, @Jack was right, I was wrong and Cishek is the guy to own for the time being. And, of course, because it’s the Marlins, Cishek blew the save. He got a lot of help from Giancarlo Stanton who misplayed a bloop single into a triple for Carlos Lee. However, Cishek did manage to walk Chris Johnson, somehow, and gave up a solid single to Brian Bogusevic. Going forward, Cishek will have some issues against lefties, but should remain the front runner in the pen…for now. I’d still like to own both or neither.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Scott Downs is feeling no ill-effects of the ball J.P. Arencibia careened off his knee. He should be ready to go. While the Angels went out and traded for Ernesto Frieri and some idiot thought he was the Padres closer of the future, he’s likely behind Jordan Walden in saves. Frieri has stuff well suited for Petco, as he is a huge fly ball pitcher and walks a healthy amount of batters. With him putting a lot of guys on base and a few more fly balls leaving the park, he’ll see a worse ERA in the American League. For the rest of the season, Frieri looks like a 3.65 ERA and 1.33 WHIP guy with 68 K’s.

San Diego Padres: The reason I was so high on Frieri was Andrew Cashner’s inability to throw strikes and how the Padres seem to prefer using Luke Gregerson in the seventh. So, hello Dale Thayer, who was originally signed by the Padres in 2002, but made his debut seven years after that for the Rays. He made his way back to the Padres after the New York Mets found no use for him. Seriously. Exclusively a reliever in the minors, Thayer has a 2.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 3.01 K:BB rate at AAA. Of course a significant amount of those innings came after he turned 28. Thayer isn’t a K guy but a ground ball pitcher in a Jim Johnson mold. So far, his control seems a bit above average. It looks like there is no reason to carry Cashner or Gregerson on your team as Thayer is the handcuff for Huston Street.

New York Yankees: Supposedly, David Robertson is sharing closing duties with Rafael Soriano, but Robertson is by far the one you want to own. He’s simply the best, better than all the rest. I’d bet on Robertson securing 95% of the Yankees saves ROTW. I’d hold Soriano if there aren’t any pressing roster matters for a week or so, but it’s Robertson’s job to run with. Sure, Robertson blew a save last night somewhat spectacularly, but the runs were the first ones he  allowed since September of last year. He’ll get a long rope; however don’t go dropping Soriano just yet.

Washington Nationals: Good thing Brad Lidge is, well, Brad Lidge because Henry Rodriguez has been ascending the BS meter. That said, Rodriguez still has impeccable numbers (2.84 ERA, 2.94 FIP, 3.11 xFIP) and has no real challenger in the Nats pen. His walk rate will continue to catch up to him and hurt his ratios, but not enough to cost him interim closing duties. The rest of the year, Rodriguez will post a 3.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 68 K’s.

Toronto Blue Jays – Until his injury, I continually thought Sergio Santos was in no danger of losing the role to Francisco Cordero. Cordero has been birding on a wire for some time now and a trip to the AL East was going to knock him off. Well, Cordero is now out of the interim seat and Casey Janssen is keeping it warm. Drop Cordero, pick up Janssen, who is better, anyway. Look for Janssen to be a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP guy the rest of the way with maybe 50 K’s. He’s basically Scott Downs for the next couple of weeks. It looks like Santos won’t be ready to go for about 14 days.

Los Angeles Dodgers: It seems if you approach Heath Bell territory on the BS meter (Cordero, Guerra), you lose your job. Kenley Jansen is filthy, capably of putting up a 2.50 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 80 K’s the rest of the way. Finally, you can drop Javy Guerra.

Cincinnati Reds: On Wednesday, after Sean Marshall gave up a lead-off homer to Ryan Braun in the ninth, Logan Ondrusek began warming in the bullpen. Marshall then fanned Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart hit a ball to the warning track in dead center. Jonathan Lucroy followed with a single on the 12th pitch of the at bat and then Aoki got a cheap bloop to left. So, Dusty Baker pulled Marshall for Ondrusek. What the what!?! Ondrusek immediately went 3-0 on the mighty Cesar Izturis and walked him two pitches later. Of course, Travis Ishikawa swung on the first pitch of the subsequent AB and hit a weak fly to left. Game over. Ondrusek is a fine, not special reliever, capable of finishing with a 3.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 55 K’s. He’s no Aroldis Chapman or Sean Marshall though. Marshall has been exceptional aside from one outing and I fully expect him to get the bulk of the saves for the Reds.

I blame the media: every manager has an itchy trigger finger early in the season when it comes to the bullpen. Or I blame myself and everyone else who obsesses over fantasy as we’ve created a culture where 5.2 IPs are something that need to be dissected and reacted to as if a reliever is only going to throw 10 innings, not 60-80 innings, in a season.

That said, that’s the culture we’re in. Fantasy baseball owners need to be nimble and react and jump on potential closers. With that in mind, let’s get bold and look down the line at which RPs will emerge as saviors.

As always, check the bottom of the column for the BS meter, which will track blown saves for relevant relievers all season long. As you’ll note in the nifty third-grade-level chart, only 16 subjectively “relevant” relievers have blown 2 or more saves. Of those, nine were closers to start the year. Oddly, Scott Downs has two blown saves and the pitcher he replaced, Jordan Walden, has only blown one.

Oakland Athletics: In two of his last four outings, Grant Balfour has blown saves. It has actually been worse than that, as Balfour has pitched 2.1 IPs, allowed six hits, six runs and walked three batters during that span. His ERA rose from 1.50 to 4.72. That said, he’s getting hurt by more HRs than should be expected and he’s walking a few more batters. While there’s a small decline in his fastball velocity, his swinging strike percentage remains constant. The Athletics need Balfour to close to trade him, so he is in no immediate danger of losing the chance at saves. His manager said as much after Tuesday’s debacle. However, he will likely get traded or demoted after the trade deadline if the A’s can’t move him, which would give Ryan Cook save chances. A lot can happen between now and then, but he’s worth a stash. Cook, just 24, came over in the Trevor Cahill trade. He has always walked a ton of people, but, at least, he’s posted great K-rates along the way, and, so far, a hot-air balloon-sized walk rate hasn’t hampered him. At the end of the year, Cook will have 65 K’s, a 3.90 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Update: Fuentes got the save opportunity against Boston in a cushy three-run game last night. He gave up a hit on a weak grounder, an RBI double to Dustin Pedroia but otherwise perfect. Cook pitched the 8th and, until the trade deadline, might be behind Fuentes for save chances. I’d still prefer Cook as the handcuff/speculative add as Fuentes is nothing but a slightly better LOOGY.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: As noted, Scott Downs is now the closer for the Angels. However, everything coming from the Angels seems to suggest this is a temporary move. Downs is doing his best to keep the job and is a short term stash, however the chances he stays the closer all year are probably under 50%. Recently Mike Scioscia said it wouldn’t take long for Walden to rediscover his “mojo” (the media didn’t ask how that 2011 form, which included 10 blown saves, differed from his 2012 form). Walden is also the “future” at closer, so he’ll get some shots unless Downs is just amazing (which he isn’t). In addition, word is the Angels have kicked the tires on a variety of RPs: Joel Hanrahan, Brandon League, Balfour and Huston Street. If the Angels continue to scuffle and the bullpen gets painted as the culprit, expect the Angels to make a cosmetic move to make up for it. If you can trade Walden or Downs, that makes sense. If not, hold them and hope Albert Pujols decides to be El Hombre.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Sometimes actions speak louder than words and sometimes they don’t. Don Mattingly gave Kenley Jansen all the save chances over the weekend, while a seemingly rested Javy Guerra was available. Jansen, because he’s one of the best relievers in baseball, acquitted himself quite well. Then, of course, in a tight game in the ninth against the Rockies, Mattingly went to Guerra who pitched a decent frame. Guerra has allowed 10 hits over his last 3 innings and has a 5.56 ERA. Still, Guerra will get most of the easy saves and a few of the toughies. Given Jansen’s ability and decent shot at double digit saves, he’s worth owning everywhere. In addition, I’d try to work a trade for Jansen based on Guerra’s latest save.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura has put himself in a corner with this Hector Santiago business. While he maintains Santiago is the closer, Matt Thornton recently got save opportunities against lefty-heavy/tough line-ups. Santiago was then given an inning of work on Tuesday, put three batters on base and narrowly escaped without allowing a run. He hasn’t pitched in a high leverage spot since April 25. At the moment, the rosiest glasses picture Santiago on the good side of a platoon with Thornton. Of course, Thornton gave up a couple of runs, including a HR to lefty Travis Hafner last night. Meanwhile, Addison Reed is straight killing it. Go all in on Reed, as he’ll emerge quickly as the guy who gets 80% of the save chances during the season. For those of you in dynasty leagues or intense save formats, check out Dylan Axelrod. From my Wikipedia research, that is not a made-up name. Axelrod has been a starter in recent history and has shown he can control the strike-zone.Ventura first chose his fourth best reliever to close, so stranger things have already happened.

New York Mets: I continue to maintain that the only thing that will stop Frank Francisco from closing all year is his health. Of course, he now has a bizarre hamstring issue that the Mets are claiming is a result of dehydration because of their trip to Colorado. That sounds fishy, but, according to Terry Collins, Francisco was available on Tuesday. Frank Franc hasn’t pitched since April 29 when he got the awesome blown save-win, and, before that, he converted two saves in a row. Since the 29th, the Mets haven’t won a game, but Jon Rauch and Bobby Parnell have pitched well. Given how bad the Mets are, speculation on this bullpen is near fruitless. I wouldn’t mind betting on Parnell in a league where most middle relievers are owned.

Minnesota Twins: Has there been more ink wasted on anything as useless as the Twins closer situation? Matt Capps has been horrible but hasn’t pitched in a high leverage spot since April 23 and hasn’t had a save opportunity since April 20. Startlingly, Capps hasn’t actually blown a save this season and is a perfect 4/4. Meanwhile, popular handcuff Glen Perkins is off to a tough start as well. If you’re in a dynasty league that can stash minor leaguers, check out Deolis Guerra. I know, “another Guerra,” but who doesn’t love war? Besides pacifists, I mean. Guerra earned a quick promotion from AA to AAA and could be in the majors later this year. If there’s a true future closer in the Twins organization, my money is on Guerra.

Miami Marlins: Holy crap, Heath Bell pitched a clean inning in a save opportunity. It should be noted that Edward Mujica got the hold in the game, while the younger Steve Cishek sat on the bench. Bell has a long leash, so if you’re going to burn a roster spot on a pitcher, take the better guy: Cishek.

Pittsburgh Pirates: With the Pirates going nowhere fast, Joel Hanrahan could very well be traded. While Juan Cruz seems like the add, I’d actually bet on Jason Grilli. Grilli has recorded a hold in each of Hanrahan’s saves. In addition, he has been fantastic: posting a 15.0 K:BB rate. He’s not that good (no one is), but he could finish with a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 70 K’s. If you’re stashing grab Grilli.

San Diego Padres: Huston Street should be traded this year. If he gets moved, Andrew Cashner and Ernesto Frieri are the likeliest to step in a close. I prefer Frieri, who has paired great K-rates with dangerous walk rates. However, you can succeed with high walk rates in Petco (just ask Heath Bell). At the end of the year, I expect a 3.05 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 85 K’s for Frieri. As for Cashner, if you thought Frieri walked a ton of batters, just wait. So far, Cashner has been walking the tight rope with a 6.39 BB/9 rate. At the end of the year, he’ll have a 3.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 68 K’s. In addition, Cashner was acquired to start, not relieve. Consequently, there shouldn’t be much pressure on the Padres to put Cashner in that role, while Frieri could be the “closer of the future.”

Seattle Mariners: Tom Wilhelmsen is about nine months younger than Brandon League. You would think either would be available at the trade deadline. Naturally, if League is dealt, Wilhelmsen is the man. He is off to a good start, increasing his strike-outs and improving his command. He’ll be good for 75 K’s, a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Given his skill set and K potential, he’s worth owning right now.

Colorado Rockies: Rafael Betancourt blew a save in rather spectacular fashion yesterday: he allowed two runs on two hits and two walks. He did strike-out the side, so there’s that. His ERA sits at 2.45 after the disastrous outing, so there’s not much to be seen here.  Both Matt Belilse and Rex Brothers had their problems as well.

Tampa Bay Rays: Kyle Farnsworth is on the 60 day DL and Fernando Rodney is dealing. What is the world coming to?

Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them.  Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks.  Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess!  I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before.  I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.”  Wha’ happened?  Did someone poison the bullpen water?  Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers?  There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.”  To recap this month in closing quickly:  Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop?  Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level.  Got all of that?  Yeah, I’m not sure I did either.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli)
8. J.J. Putz (-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw)
9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs)
10. Jose Valverde (-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers)
12. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen)
13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
14. Grant Balfour (+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15. Brett Myers (+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
16. Joe Nathan (+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

18. Sean Marshall (+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19. Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
20. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21. Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
22. Jonathan Broxton (+6) (Aaron Crow)
23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
24. Frank Francisco (-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez)
25. Alfredo Aceves (-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard)
26. Carlos Marmol (-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood)
27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica)
28. Scott Downs (-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins)
29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago (-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain)
30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)

Before going through the closer upheaval rigmarole, I thought it important to set some context on blown saves. From 2009-2011 (three seasons), of pitchers with at least 10 saves, 11 relievers blew 16 or more saves. Only three of those pitchers (Matt Capps, Carlos Marmol and Jim Johnson) are still closers. Leo Nunez and Brian Wilson aren’t closing for, mostly, non-baseball-related reasons. While the other half (Kevin Gregg, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez, Chad Qualls, Brad Lidge and Kerry Wood) deservedly do not have full time closing duties. However, for these pitchers to lose their Rolaids relief roles, they had to blow, on average, 5 – 7 saves a season. That’s a lot when you think about it. And even when some of these gentlemen blew that many saves, about half were still given the ball with the game on the line.

Expanding the pool, 26 pitchers recorded at least 10 saves from 2009-2011 and blew 10 – 14 opportunities. Of the 26, roughly 15 (Bell, Papelbon, League, Soria, Hanrahan, Madson, Rivera, Francisco, Betancourt, Street, Perez, Farnsworth, Feliz, Putz and Walden) are/would be full time closers today. Of the remaining 11, two are current closers (Broxton and Rodney) and the rest have largely been middle relievers or flamed out (Ryan Franklin and Bobby Jenks). Consequently, it seems that blowing 3 – 5 saves in a season isn’t at all detrimental (in recent history at least) to maintaining a hold on the closer position.

This is by no means scientific (neither is the usage of bullpens) as many factors contribute to relief upheaval. I do think it puts in perspective how often a closer needs to fail before he’s removed from the position though. For instance, just last year Walden (10), Marmol (10), Capps (9) and Kimbrell (8) led closers in blown saves. After them, Soria blew seven leads and Farnsworth, Cordero, Feliz, Santos and Nunez blew six. Of those, only Cordero (and potentially Nunez) could not get a job closing because of ability in 2012.

Check the bottom of the column for the BS meter, which will track blown saves for relevant relievers all season long.

Chicago White Sox: Poor Robin Ventura waited until the 14^th inning to get his “best” reliever into the game. The White Sox had a two-run lead when Hector Santiago took the mound. He struck out the first guy he faced, but then surrendered a single to Eric Skarsgård Sogard who was followed by the mighty Cespedes who homered to left. Seth Smith and Kurt Suzuki singled back-to-back and Kila Ka’aihue brought home the winning run. At least Santiago was around the plate (15 of his 21 pitches were strikes)? Santiago is getting killed by the long ball (30% HR/FB rate), while posting a nasty K:BB rate (9.00). In addition, every single runner Santiago has allowed on base has scored. If Rolaids spells relief, that spells regression. Meanwhile Jesse Crain was unavailable because of an oblique injury, which isn’t supposed to be serious. I have faith in Santiago’s stuff, but not Ventura’s patience. I’d put my money on Addison Reed at this point, unless Crain is healthy.

Chicago Cubs: While Carlos Marmol has been horrendous (with as many walks as K’s this year), the rest of the Chicago Cubs bullpen has been even worse. There’s no silver lining to Marmol’s stats as his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his wretched ERA. That said, it is just 5.2 IPs and the Cubs are going to keep throwing him out there to extract value and because they have no choice. At the end of Tuesday’s game, Dale Sveum said, ”He’s been pitching good. To me, that’s just a case of a 2-2 slider that one of the strongest guys in baseball hit for a home run. Did he do anything wrong or whatever? No, it was just another guy on the other side of the fence making a lot of money who does that quite often.” Marmol is and will continue to be the closer. So, basically, there’s no reason to handcuff or speculate here.

Washington Nationals: Brad Lidge has two blown saves, a 5.14 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, Henry Rodriguez has been near perfect (0.84 WHIP). However, Rodriguez has been working around a pretty ridiculous walk rate (six batters in 8.1 IPs) and has a .059 BABIP. At a certain point, the fairy tale will end. In addition, Davey Johnson keeps saying he’s going to throw Lidge out there in the ninth, vertigo and all. I’d rather own Rodriguez, he’s just better, but there’s no reason to drop Lidge yet.

Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez is awful, that is what is known as a baseball fact. Another baseball fact? Perez is the anointed closer. He has seven saves and as long as he keeps his blown saves down there’s no reason for the Indians to do anything. He’ll likely have to blow a few saves in a row or somehow get to 5-6 blown saves before the All Star Break to be in danger of losing the job. Meanwhile Vinnie Pestano is straight dirty and own-able just based on his nastiness (11 K:BB rate). However, it’s unlikely Pestano finishes with double digit saves, barring a Perez injury. If you desperately need saves, you might have to look elsewhere (Houston [Wilton Lopez], Oakland [Fautino de los Santos, Brian Fuentes]).

Baltimore Orioles: Orioles fans can breathe a sigh of relief as it appears Buck Showalter realized Pedro Strop is the second best reliever on the squad. If you own Jim Johnson and are a hand-cuffer, Strop is your man. Strop has paired impressive K-rates with high walk rates throughout his career but also gets a good bit of ground balls (a double play can mitigate a walk pretty quickly). He’s capable of a 3.85 ERA with 65+ K’s this year. Strop is, at the moment, just a handcuff as he’ll only get save chances when Johnson has the flu. Although, apparently, Johnson is still at the hospital having tests on what might be a bacterial issue, so Strop could have a few days as closer.

Boston Red Sox: While his return to the bullpen was momentary (for the time being), Daniel Bard reminded folks of how dominant he can be as a reliever (he entered the game with one out and a runner on third and didn’t allow the runner to score). Meanwhile, Alfredo Aceves is 3/5 in save opportunities and sports an astronomical 18.00 ERA and 2.75 WHIP. Andrew Bailey is on the 60-day DL and out until July. Aceves has some rope here given the rest of the bullpen is really bad. However, a couple of poor starts from Bard and an implosion or two from Aceves could get Bard in the closer seat. If you’re speculating here, grab Bard. He’s the only arm I’d be happy owning in the situation and, apparently, he was available in relief Wednesday night.

St. Louis Cardinals: From 2009-2011, Jason Motte had eight blown saves with just 11 conversions. Of course, for the majority of that time, he wasn’t actually a closer. Still, it does demonstrate the short amount of time Motte has actually been holding the role (heck, he hasn’t even been pitching that long, as he’s a converted catcher). Motte suffered his first blown save on Monday and sports an ugly 4.05 ERA. He is walking a few too many batters, but has a great K-rate and is really suffering from allowing all his HRs early in the season. There’s likely little to be worried about here even though Marc Rzepczynski started the ninth against the Chicago Cubs (he was facing a lefty) Tuesday. Rzepczynski promptly gave up a tying HR any way.

Toronto Blue Jays: With Sergio Santos on the DL, Francisco Cordero assumes a role he’s familiar with. From 2009-2011, Cordero recorded 116 saves and only blew 17. That’s the third best differential during that time frame (behind Heath Bell and Mariano Rivera). Of course, that was in the National League and Cordero has been anything but automatic this season. Cordero had a 1.91 K:BB rate last year and is sporting a 2.00 K:BB rate this year. He is being hit hard in the early going (20.8% LD rate, .360 BABIP) and will experience some bumps in the unforgiving AL East. Even if Cordero somehow turns into a lights out reliever (something he hasn’t been since 2007), Santos will get the job back once he’s healthy. The Blue Jays brought Santos in because he has the stuff to compete in the division. He’s their future at closer and they need to make it work now when the stakes aren’t very high. Cordero is a fine short-term speculation, but he’ll go back to trying to get holds when Santos is healthy. Santos will be out for about a month, even though an MRI showed no structural damage.

New York Mets: Frank Francisco has put up one ugly superficial stat line so far: 7.36 ERA, 1.77 WHIP. He has been walk happy so far (issuing 4 free passes in 7.1 IPs), but has, at least, maintained a solid K-rate. In addition, his strand rate (46.2%) and BABIP (.375) have done him no favors. Still, when healthy, Francisco is a solid reliever. He’ll rebound to put up a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 60 K line at the end of the year. The only reason to own Jon Rauch is for potential Francisco injuries.

Kansas City Royals: Unlike Grey, I’ve been on the Jonathan Broxton bandwagon for awhile now, believing the Royals would want to do all they could to turn Broxton into a trade-able commodity. So far, Broxton has a 2.50 K:BB rate and is averaging 95.7 MPH on his fastball, a similar rate to 2010, which saw him post a 4.01 ERA, 3.01 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. Broxton’s current ratios will mirror his end of the year line. He’ll probably even strike out 60+.