Fantasy Baseball Advice

Remember the good ol’ days when the St. Louis Cardinals were relying on Ryan Franklin to close games for them? Then when he completely flopped, everyone they auditioned as a replacement couldn’t hack it. Then, as luck would have it, they finally found their man: Fernando Salas. He notched his first save on April 28, and 22 more would follow through the end of August.

As the calendar turned to September, the fun ended for Salas and his fantasy owners. Salas worked the seventh and eighth innings of an 8-3 game on September 1, allowing one run and watching Jason Motte finish things out in a non-save situation in the ninth. Motte would then grab the next six saves for the Cardinals before blowing one on September 16 (through no fault of his own) and seeing Salas get an extra-innings save.

Unfortunately for Salas, that could prove to be his last save of the season. The two relievers have very similar numbers, but Motte is just a little bit better and he keeps the ball down. That should translate to an effective stint as closer for Motte over the rest of this season and beyond.

Kyle Farnsworth has blown two saves since recording one on September 7, and with the Rays surging and trying to catch the Red Sox for the Wild Card, that’s not going to cut the mustard. An elbow problem has kept Farnsworth off the mound over the last week-plus, with Joel Peralta collecting a couple of saves in the interim. Don’t expect the Rays to go back to Farnsworth until it’s clear he’s 100 percent — they can’t afford any more blown saves.

Kevin Gregg managed to secure his last save on September 2, allowing a walk and two hits in a scoreless inning but nevertheless slamming the door. That was the breaking point for the Orioles, who let Jim Johnson pick up the next two saves. Unfortunately, they just didn’t know how to quit Gregg, going to him for another save opportunity last weekend, which he blew by allowing two runs while only recording one out. Back to Johnson for two more saves, including one of the two-inning variety.

Johnson is clearly the guy to own here for the rest of the year, and hopefully this is the last we hear of Gregg as a closer. I think Johnson has a shot at being a solid closer in 2012, but it’s more likely the Orioles throw too much money at a guy with “experience.” You know, like Kevin Gregg.

The Mets have managed four saves in September, with two going to Bobby Parnell, one to Josh Stinson and one to Manny Acosta. Stinson’s came in extra innings as a result of a blown save by Parnell; Acosta was then called upon for the save the next day. Parnell was given the next shot at recording a save for the Mets, but he blew that one too. He ended up coming in during the seventh in his next appearance to pitch two scoreless innings. It’s best to avoid this bullpen, but it looks like Acosta may be the guy to get the next look. That’s just a guess.

Brian Wilson is on the precipice of returning, so I wouldn’t get too invested into Santiago Casilla, who notched saves on Wednesday and Thursday. I expected Sergio Romo to get some looks in the ninth inning once he returned, but despite great results, he’s not closing. It’s hard to argue against either option — Casilla and Romo rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in ERA among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year.

Frank Francisco is still the guy to own in Toronto, despite a little rough patch earlier in the month. And since we’ve already talked far too much about the Toronto bullpen this year, let’s move on.

Sean Marshall is pilfering a few saves from Carlos Marmol, with two already in September. If every potential save is imporant to your team, Marshall is a good add for the rest of the year. Don’t worry about Marmol; he didn’t get a save opportunity on Saturday thanks to pitching three innings over the previous two days. I wish I got that kind of time off at my job.

Other guys that have already picked up at least one save in September and could get more while sitting on your waiver wire include Kenley Jansen and Chris Sale. Also Rafael Betancourt, though I assume he’s long gone in most competitive leagues.

You don’t often see a big-name closer come off the DL and not regain his job, but that’s exactly what’s happening in Colorado. Huston Street and his 29 saves hit the DL with a triceps strain a few weeks ago and returned to the Rockies on August 26. With a 49:8 K:BB ratio, fantasy owners obviously would expect him to step right back into the Bottom of the 9th. But as it turns out, the Rockies have a better pitcher already occupying the closer role.

Rafael Betancourt has been a machine since earning the closing gig in August, and on the day Street came off the DL, Betancourt had thrown 20 consecutive outings without allowing an earned run. Furthermore, that streak included 30 Ks and just one walk, absurd numbers any way you slice them. Ironically, he did blow a save on August 27, Street’s first action with the team, leaving Colorado with an open window to re-insert Street into the ninth. Instead, they stuck with Betancourt, and he responded with three straight perfect saves.

The threat of Street re-gaining his job looms around Betancourt, but with a 66:8 K:BB ratio, there’s no other reason not to consider him a top-tier closer right now. He’d surely do more for your team than that innings eater you’re holding onto at SP. As excellent as Betancourt has been since the All-Star break, he deserves to be trotted out there in fantasy lineups everyday regardless of what inning he’s pitching. Of course, for our purposes it would be great for him to keep the closer role. Street owners will have to be patient and hope for a mishap, but if I had to choose between the two, I’d go Betancourt.

Brian Wilson hasn’t pitched since mid-August, and unless the Giants get back in the playoff race quickly, Wilson could see his next action in 2012. Santiago Casilla and Ramom Ramirez have picked up the team’s three most recent saves. Casilla has walked a fine line all season, allowing just six earned runs in 41 innings despite surrendering 22 walks and 25 hits. Of course, none of that matters with Sergio Romo healthy; the electric setup man has 56 Ks and just four BBs in 39.1 innings, giving him a 1.60 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. So yeah, he’s your best look.

Leo Nunez had an ugly three-game stretch in August, allowing at least two earned runs in three straight starts (nine runs total). Steve Cishek went on to record the next save on a day where Nunez was unavailable, then posted another a few days later. However, Cishek himself was lit up on September 1, while Nunez has posted three straight scoreless outings. Consider Nunez the borderline closer right now, and I wouldn’t wait around for Cishek. Edward Mujica has better numbers than both and could be an option for deep league owners looking for every possible save.

Craig Kimbrel has 42 saves and 113 Ks. There’s obviously no actionable strategy to take with this information at this point, but I found that worth mentioning. Eric Gagne finished fourth in the Cy Young voting as a 26-year-old by posting a 1.97 ERA, 52 saves and 114 Ks. The next year, he turned in a 1.20 ERA, 55 saves and 137 Ks while winning the Cy Young Award. Kimbrel, at 23 years old, has a 1.57 ERA and a shot at reaching 50 saves and 130 Ks. Incredible.

Bobby Parnell has notched five saves since Jason Isringhausen bowled a perfect game. It hasn’t been pretty (he has five walks and three Ks over that stretch of saves), but saves are saves. I doubt he’s making a great argument for being the primary closer in 2012, so the team may look for a proven arm on the market this offseason (Heath Bell, anyone?).

Kenley Jansen picked up another save on September 1, and his sick numbers (25 H, 24 BB, 70 K in 42.2 innings) make him a possible add if only for the sweet K/9. More importantly, that looks like the profile of a Carlos Marmol-type closer, right? Even though Javy Guerra has done a quality job as closer for most of the year, he doesn’t have nearly the upside of Jansen. Dynasty owners take note, as Joanthan Broxton is no guarantee to return to form in 2012.

There isn’t much going on in the American League that we need to discuss. Jon Rauch is back from the DL, but Frank Francisco has managed to avoid falling on his face thus far, so the team will probably stick with him for now, especially with Rauch getting rocked by the Yankees on Sunday.

Friends, neighbors and Razzballians, this is the last Closer Look of the season.  Sure, I’ll talk about closers during the roundups in the last month, but no more rankings that become dated usually about an hour after I post them.  The sadness!  The grief!  The inconsequence of it all!  Since our last look at all the closers, the loss of Brian Wilson — not The Beach Boy, we lost him 25 years ago to the purple pills — is the biggest news from last month to now that isn’t weather related.  I’d say we also lost Jon Rauch, but I’m not sure he was ever the closer and he’s seven-three so you can’t really lose him.  Just look up.  Bobby Parnell finally took over for Izzy after his momentous 300th save that was reported all across the globe (in a small blurb under a classified ad for a used couch.)  Jason Motte got a vote of confidence from his manager then a vote of no confidence, which I’m sure will flip-slop at least five more times in September.  Jordan Walden fatigued, needs a nap.  Huston Street got hurt — shocker!  Leo Nunez did his usual late-season dive.  Finally, Gregg gaggs yet aggain, but he’s been like that for years and it’s never changed his job security.  He’s the Teflon Closer.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
2. Craig Kimbrel (+6) (Jonny Venters, Scott Linebrink)
3. Heath Bell (-1) (Chad Qualls, Luke Gregerson, Ernesto Frieri)
4. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Daniel Bard)
5. Jose Valverde (-1) (Joaquin Benoit, Ryan Perry)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Carlos Marmol (Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall)
7. John Axford (+5) (Francisco Rodriguez)
8. Joel Hanrahan (-1)(Jose Veras, Chris Resop)
9. Francisco Cordero (Aroldis Chapman)
10. J.J. Putz (+4) (David Hernandez)
11. Kyle Farnsworth (+5) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
12. Neftali Feliz (+11) (Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez)
13. Drew Storen (+5) (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
14. Sergio Santos (-3) (Matt Thornton, Chris Sale)
15. Chris Perez (+10) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez)
16. Ryan Madson (+3) (Brad Lidge, Antonio Bastardo)
17. Joe Nathan (+1) (Matt Capps, Glen Perkins)
18. Joakim Soria (Aaron Crow)
19. Brandon League (+1) (Jamey Wright)
20. Andrew Bailey (-5) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
21. Javy Guerra (+5) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Jordan Walden (-1) (Scott Downs, Hisanori Takahashi)
23. Kevin Gregg (Jim Johnson)
24. Mark Melancon (Wilton Lopez)
25. Fernando Salas/Jason Motte (-4) (Octavio Dotel)
26. Bobby Parnell (+2) (Jason Isringhausen, Pedro Beato)
27. Frank Francisco (+3) (Casey Janssen, Jon Rauch)
28. Rafael Betancourt (-18) (Huston Street, Rex Brothers)
29. Steve Cishek/Leo Nunez/Edward Mujica (-17) (Mike Dunn)
30. Sergio Romo/Jeremy Affeldt/Ramon Ramirez/Santiago Casilla (-25) (Brian Wilson, Mike Love, John Stamos)

When we last met, we discussed the three teams most likely to switch closers before the end of the season, and two of the three teams have already experienced change. The Mets are going with Bobby Parnell over Jason Isringhausen as expected after the latter’s 300th career save, though Izzy may still pick up a rogue save or two here or there, presumably by dressing up as Michael Bolton dressed up as Jack Sparrow to see what lies in store.

In Toronto, an injury landed Jon Rauch on the DL and Frank Francisco back in the closing role. Rauch should return in the first half of September, where he would presumably regain closing duties despite a rough August. Unless GM whiz Alex Anthopoulos is a Bottom of the 9th reader and requests Casey Janssen be given a shot.

Brian Wilson was placed on the DL with right elbow inflammation, and he’s expected to be back August 31 or September 1. In the interim, Jeremy Affeldt could pick up a couple saves, as could Sergio Romo when he returns from the DL late next week. Neither player deserves must-add status though, as their time in the ninth is likely to be as quick as the Giants’ 2011 playoff run with no offense.

Huston Street has been sidelined with a biceps injury, hitting the DL on August 9. He looks ready to go out on assignment and should re-join the Rockies within the next few days. Rafael Betancourt has “filled in” as closer, earning a save the day Street landed on the DL but hadn’t received a save opportunity since then heading into Sunday action. Betancourt is worth holding on to for the next few days until we see a Street activation.

He’s not injured — at least, not that we know of — but Kevin Gregg could see himself demoted after another horrendous run that includes seven earned runs in two innings over his last four games. He failed to record an out in two of those four appearances, allowing six baserunners on August 14 against Detroit and four on Saturday against the Angels. Mike Gonzalez hasn’t allowed a run since July 18 and hasn’t even walked a batter this month. Jim Johnson has been pretty effective all season but less so this month. Either one would likely do better than Gregg in the role, though no Oriole reliever should be in a fantasy lineup right now.

I was like, “Yo, Grey, you gotta do a Closer Look, like, last week so everyone knows what is the haps on closers!”  Then I was like, “After the trading deadline, which I went over in Toto, not a whole lot changes.”  Then I was like, “What is “the haps?”  The happenings?  Then say that.  And ‘in Toto?’  Are you talking in code for ‘in Total Douchebag?’”  It’s a constant struggle with myself to give you the best product, and, when I don’t give you the best product, it’s usually me blabbering about how it’s a constant struggle to give you the best product.  Incredibly, in the last month there’s only been three closer changes.  Capps to Nathan, Bastardo to Madson, which only happened because Madson was briefly injured last month when I did the last Closer Look, and D-ork to the Brewers, making Izzy the closer, which has been well documented on this site, and by ‘this site’ I mean the one you’re reading right now, not the porn window you have open underneath it.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
2. Heath Bell (+3) (Chad Qualls, Ernesto Frieri)
3. Jonathan Papelbon (+1) (Daniel Bard)
4. Jose Valverde  (Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque)
5. Brian Wilson (+1) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. Carlos Marmol (-3) (Sean Marshall)
7. Joel Hanrahan (Jose Veras, Chris Resop)
8. Craig Kimbrel (+3) (Jonny Venters, Scott Linebrink)
9. Francisco Cordero (Aroldis Chapman)
10. Huston Street (Matt Lindstrom)
11. Sergio Santos (+8) (Matt Thornton, Chris Sale)
12. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
13. Leo Nunez (Edward Mujica, Mike Dunn)
14. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez)
15. Andrew Bailey (+3) (Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour)
16. Kyle Farnsworth (+1) (Joel Peralta, J.P.Howell)
17. Joe Nathan (+5) (Matt Capps, Glen Perkins)
18. Drew Storen (-2) (Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett)
19. Ryan Madson (+11) (Brad Lidge, Antonio Bastardo) 
20. Joakim Soria (Aaron Crow)
21. Brandon League (+2) (Jamey Wright)
22. Jordan Walden (+2) (Scott Downs, Fernando Rodney)
23. Fernando Salas (+3) (Jason Motte, Octavio Dotel)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kevin Gregg– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Brian Roberts in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Neftali Feliz (-3) (Mike Adams, Koji Uehara)
25. Chris Perez (-17) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez)
26. Kevin Gregg (-2) (Jim Johnson, Mike Gonzalez)
27. Mark Melancon (Wilton Lopez)
28. Javy Guerra (+1) (Hong-Chih Kuo, Matt Guerrier) 
29. Jason Isringhausen (-15) (Bobby Parnell, Pedro Beato)
30. Jon Rauch (-1) (Frank Francisco, The Ghost of the Seagull that Dave Winfield Killed)