I play in some deep dynasty leagues. The kind where every at bat has value. Every pulse has value. In leagues like these, guys like Gio Urshella, Mike Yastrzemski and Tommy Edman get picked up before their first big chance. I love these large player pools and have discovered something of talent for climbing aboard the airbus just before real helium hits for the Trent Grishams, Randy Arozarenas, and Jake Cronenworths of the world.
I’m not suggesting the players in this series are locks to produce like those names in the intro. I am however saying these are the freemium-level dynasty and draft champions pieces I’m acquiring now in as many leagues as possible because I like their intersection of proximity, opportunity and talent.
1B OF Pavin Smith | 25 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Fantrax ADP 566.77 | NFBC ADP 683.92
Smith tweaked his load (phrasing!) ever so slightly in 2019 and unlocked some of the power he’d previously closed off with an arm bar. The late-season slugging surge put Pavin back on the prospect map. From July 1 2019 through the end of that season, Smith slashed .350/.419/.589 with 7 home runs and an 11.8 walk percentage compared to a 9 percent strikeout rate. That winter, I acquired him in some dynasty leagues.
Entering 2021, Smith was in the running for a big league role as a corner outfielder and back up first baseman after his cup of coffee tasted okay in 2020 (.270/.340/.405 in 44 plate appearances). With Kole Calhoun tearing his meniscus in early March, a window cracked open for someone to grab the spotlight and carve out a permanent role. Tim Locastro seemed like the front runner, but then Ketel Marte tweaked his ankle on Tuesday, so Locastro might be needed in center in the early going. Could be Daulton Varsho too. I think he’s headed to the training site, but it’s mostly guesswork based on how thoroughly overwhelmed he was for 37 big league games in 2020. Also I’ve never drank that particular Kool-Aid. David Peralta has one of the jobs on lock down, but I’m thinking Arizona would trade him as soon as possible, so even if Smith loses out to Varsho, Locastro and/or Josh VanMeter in the early going, he could have another extended run by midseason.
OF Akil Baddoo | 22 | Detroit Tigers | Fantrax ADP 1228.27 | NFBC ADP 750.95
One of this spring’s brightest lights, Baddoo was the #3 pick of the Rule 5 draft this winter, meaning he has to stay on Detroit’s roster all season or get sent back to Minnesota. The outfield there is a bit crowded, but I’m not sure Nomar Mazara, JaCoby Jones, or Victor Reyes are the stuff prospect blocks are made of. Rather, they’re replacement level options whose structural topside is limited partly because they’ve already played their cheapest seasons. Baddoo is the opposite, playing for the minimum these next two years with slight raises impending based on performance.
I didn’t love what I saw from Baddoo in the minors. As a young Twinkie, he played for the Cedar Rapids Kernals, the MiLB team closest to me and the one I see most often. He was listed at 6’1 210 even then but crouched in the box like the leadoff hitter for the American Dreams in Baseball Stars. Baddoo has since relaxed his extreme crouch, which allows more of his natural strength, balance and athleticism to work with his swing. What I’m trying to say here is that I don’t think the minor league stats tell us much in this case. Baddoo is a different dude now. Maybe even a bad dude, if you recall that 8-bit brawl.
The key piece for our game is speed. Baddoo swiped 24 bags in 113 games for Cedar Rapids while getting caught just five times. His highest level played prior to Spring Training was 29 games at high-A in 2019. He hit four homers and stole six bags that month despite struggling with his swing (.214/.290/.393). I find it a little strange to be writing to advocate for a bad man I used to dislike relative to the hype he was building back in 2018, but here we are, and my main suggestion is to ignore pretty much everything but reality in this case. If Baddoo is hitting, go get him. Put him in your lineup. Damn the experts and the scouts and the past statlines. If he’s on the bench, just drop him. Kind of a perfect last-round flier in that way. He’ll either cut through and be the kind of power-speed threat everyone’s after, or he’ll ride the pine.
SS Bobby Witt Jr. | 20 | Kansas City Royals | Fantrax ADP 749.6 | NFBC ADP 697.81
Dayton Moore did an interview with SiriusXM’s Jim Bowden on Tuesday during which he was quick to respond when Bowden asked whether or not Witt could make the team.
“Yeah, he can,” said Moore. Whether he was excited or anxious about the concept is different to parse. General Managers say what they have to say to move interviews forward without creating waves. That acknowledged, things have felt different in Kansas City since a group led by John Sherman bought the club in 2019.
Click here for a rundown on everyone involved with the acquisition. Patrick Mahomes has since bought a stake and joined the ownership group.
The culture in Kansas City is so positive at the moment that the Royals had their pick of the player pool after 2020’s abbreviated amateur draft ended in round 5, leaving countless players looking for a chance.
I only include all this because the context in KC is key to our expectations for Witt’s timeline. Many people discussing this say Witt’s unlikely to come up this year because the Royals are rebuilding. And maybe they are. But they did sign Carlos Santana and Mike Minor. And they did trade for Andrew Bennintendi when Boston went searching for salary relief. Imagine that. Kansas City taking Boston’s payroll runoff.
Furthering the case for an aggressive timeline on Witt, the Royals have so much pitching on the cusp that an early promotion would line up with the bulk of their team-control window. Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar and Jonathan Bowlan are all ready to contribute now, and none of them is necessary on Opening Day. In Alec Marsh and Austin Cox, the Royals have another wave coming only slightly behind this next one.
Galaxy brain suggests they won’t have to spend a free agent dime on pitching for many years, which opens up some of the newly infused capital for, say, signing their young star-in-waiting to a mega deal covering the bulk of his baseball life. As the son of a big league pitcher and bonus baby draft pick, Bobby Witt Jr. is not hurting for money. This cuts both ways. The Royals are an organization with an abundance of goodwill around the game because of how they treat people. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a young cat who’s not hurting for coin decide he’s happy in the organization that drafted him. Happy enough to sign for 14 years or so a calendar year from now? Who knows, but I can say for sure that how they treat Witt this season and how he feels about signing on to stay long-term are connected. Dominos, even, and I suspect the Royals will see it that way and let Witt play sooner than later.
His NFBC minimum pick is 214. Must’ve been this week. Too rich for me at the moment, but if he’s up in June with 2B and SS eligibility, that’s not a totally foolish gamble in a draft-and-hold or even the shallower formats where he’s only in the player pool if he’s selected at the draft table. Some in our game despise uncertainty. Some thrive on it. Witt’s place between these extremes is in flux. His ADP is all but useless to us at this point, but I can say he’s been taken in most the drafts I’ve done this month, and he’ll probably be taken in yours. If you’re the type to smirk at a wasted roster spot when that happens, you probably haven’t read this far. If you’re the type who’s going to feel a deep pang of fomo when Witt goes off the board, jump him up a round or dollar of two from whatever you were thinking this morning.
A couple years ago, I got Tatis right and drafted him in all my leagues, typically in the 225-300 range that climbed across my four NFBC drafts. Witt’s situation is his own, and he does look much less likely than Tatis did to start on Opening Day, but this thing is in motion now. Thinking it’s stagnant or decided would be a mistake. Sure, the club brought in Hanser Alberto to play 2B. They probably want to see how their lineup looks without Witt in it.
The players don’t, though. Royals are all over Twitter singing the praise of Bobby Witt Jr., all but begging the front office to listen and field the best possible team on day one. I think Cleveland can be had this year and that Minnesota is more vulnerable than they’ve been. I also think rebuilds done well arrive a year early. If Dayton Moore sees it similarly, the pieces are in place for an early, and perhaps even Opening Day, debut.
Oh and before I go I should say, I’ve heard about some wild Bobby Witt Jr. trades in dynasty leagues these past few days, by which I mean people are selling him despite the mounting evidence that they should not. Someone got him for Jordan Groshans and Dane Dunning, and if you can do anything close to that, you should try. I’m not sure where I’d draw the line myself, but I suggest checking in with whoever has him rostered in your league.
Thanks for reading!
I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.
