Stolen Base Success Rates Against Starting Pitchers

Updated: | Maintained by

All active starting pitchers with stats from 2013 through 2016 season to date.

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Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!


# Name Team L/R IP (2013-2016) SB (2013-2016) CS (2013-2016) SB Suc% (2013-2016) SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB (2013-2016) IP by SB Att (2013-2016)
Noah Syndergaard NYN R 305.0 56 7 89 0.207 5.5 0.3
Brandon Workman BOS R 128.7 23 9 72 0.152 5.6 4.0
Tyson Ross SD R 522.0 79 30 72 0.141 6.6 4.8
Scott Feldman TOR R 452.0 67 12 85 0.136 6.7 5.7
Jimmy Nelson MIL R 408.3 59 13 82 0.118 6.9 5.7
Taylor Jungmann MIL R 140.0 20 8 71 0.117 7.0 0.1
Steven Matz NYN L 168.0 23 6 79 0.136 7.3 0.2
Tim Lincecum LAA R 468.0 62 11 85 0.108 7.5 6.4
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL R 592.7 77 18 81 0.104 7.7 6.2
Roberto Hernandez ATL R 409.4 53 14 79 0.111 7.7 6.1
Gerrit Cole PIT R 577.3 72 21 77 0.124 8.0 6.2
Jake Arrieta CHN R 599.1 74 14 84 0.150 8.1 6.8
Nate Karns SEA R 265.3 32 7 82 0.103 8.3 6.8
Anibal Sanchez DET R 591.7 71 15 83 0.117 8.3 6.9
Colin Rea SD R 134.4 16 3 84 0.099 8.4 0.1
Jon Lester CHN L 792.0 94 30 76 0.124 8.4 6.4
Sean O’Sullivan BOS R 130.0 15 4 79 0.084 8.7 6.8
Jered Weaver LAA R 670.6 76 23 77 0.107 8.8 6.8
Luis Perdomo SD R 106.7 12 0 100 0.076 8.9 0.1
Zach Eflin PHI R 63.3 7 2 78 0.103 9.1 0.1
Tyler Skaggs LAA L 181.7 20 8 71 0.099 9.1 6.5
Jonathan Pettibone CHN R 109.3 12 4 75 0.085 9.1 6.8
Chris Young KC R 368.3 40 13 75 0.104 9.2 6.8
John Lamb CIN L 119.7 13 4 76 0.082 9.2 0.1
Cole Hamels TEX L 805.7 87 25 78 0.108 9.3 7.2
Felix Doubront OAK L 317.3 34 11 76 0.087 9.3 7.1
Archie Bradley ARI R 140.7 15 4 79 0.078 9.4 0.1
Drew Hutchison PIT R 347.7 37 12 76 0.092 9.4 7.0
Lucas Harrell TEX R 213.0 22 6 79 0.071 9.7 7.6
Rich Hill LAN L 155.0 16 4 80 0.094 9.7 7.8
Eric Surkamp FA L 69.0 7 2 78 0.062 9.9 7.7
Drew Smyly TB L 445.7 45 19 70 0.106 9.9 7.0
Mat Latos WAS R 489.6 48 14 77 0.094 10.2 7.9
John Lackey CHN R 763.6 74 16 82 0.100 10.3 8.5
Dylan Bundy BAL R 85.0 8 5 62 0.082 10.6 0.1
Matt Cain SF R 419.0 39 14 74 0.084 10.7 7.9
Charlie Morton PHI R 419.6 39 11 78 0.079 10.8 8.4
Matt Andriese TB R 162.7 15 2 88 0.093 10.9 0.2
Edwin Jackson SD R 423.7 39 9 81 0.074 10.9 8.8
Anthony DeSclafani CIN R 312.0 28 9 76 0.084 11.1 8.2
Yu Darvish TEX R 419.0 37 7 84 0.091 11.3 9.5
Bud Norris LAN R 483.0 42 18 70 0.074 11.5 8.0
Eddie Butler COL R 149.6 13 7 65 0.060 11.5 7.2
Tyler Anderson COL L 83.0 7 1 88 0.085 11.9 0.1
Edinson Volquez KC R 692.0 58 18 76 0.071 11.9 9.1
Felix Hernandez SEA R 759.7 63 19 77 0.090 12.1 9.3
Robbie Ray ARI L 301.4 24 7 77 0.066 12.6 9.4
Jorge de la Rosa COL L 616.0 49 18 73 0.069 12.6 9.2
Mike Bolsinger TOR R 189.3 15 10 60 0.066 12.6 7.3
Aaron Blair ATL R 50.7 4 1 80 0.051 12.7 0.1
Tyler Matzek COL L 139.7 11 4 73 0.063 12.7 8.8
Ross Stripling LAN R 76.3 6 0 100 0.075 12.7 0.1
Paul Clemens SD R 140.7 11 3 79 0.061 12.8 10.0
Andrew Cashner MIA R 589.7 46 22 68 0.073 12.8 8.7
Shelby Miller ARI R 630.9 49 19 72 0.071 12.9 9.3
Alex Cobb TB R 309.6 24 6 80 0.080 12.9 10.3
Trevor Bauer CLE R 492.0 38 17 69 0.066 12.9 8.9
Jason Hammel CHN R 626.3 48 10 83 0.075 13.0 10.8
Chris Bassitt OAK R 143.7 11 5 69 0.061 13.1 8.5
Carlos Rodon CHA L 262.3 20 5 80 0.062 13.1 0.3
Dan Straily CIN R 372.3 28 12 70 0.070 13.3 9.3
Jon Gray COL R 173.4 13 4 76 0.065 13.3 0.2
Alfredo Simon CIN R 524.3 39 21 65 0.064 13.4 8.7
Brandon Finnegan CIN L 202.7 15 7 68 0.066 13.5 8.8
Hector Santiago MIN L 596.7 44 26 63 0.063 13.6 8.5
Blake Snell TB L 68.3 5 2 71 0.053 13.6 0.1
Wily Peralta MIL R 579.7 42 20 68 0.060 13.8 9.4
Matt Wisler ATL R 239.0 17 2 89 0.062 14.1 0.2
Jason Vargas KC L 380.0 27 8 77 0.065 14.1 10.9
Chris Archer TB R 697.4 49 20 71 0.069 14.2 10.1
Jeff Samardzija SF R 814.1 57 22 72 0.068 14.3 10.3
Francisco Liriano TOR L 646.3 45 12 79 0.062 14.4 11.3
Ivan Nova PIT R 376.7 26 10 72 0.059 14.5 10.5
Drew Pomeranz BOS L 323.0 22 9 71 0.066 14.7 10.4
Cesar Ramos DET L 250.0 17 1 94 0.058 14.7 13.9
Mike Pelfrey DET R 456.4 31 7 82 0.051 14.7 12.0
Matt Shoemaker LAA R 428.0 29 12 71 0.069 14.8 10.4
Colby Lewis TEX R 473.0 32 15 68 0.063 14.8 9.9
Aaron Sanchez TOR R 281.6 19 10 66 0.069 14.8 9.4
Robbie Erlin SD L 148.7 10 2 83 0.066 14.9 12.4
Marco Estrada TOR R 597.0 40 13 75 0.073 14.9 11.3
Ricky Nolasco LAA R 463.3 31 14 69 0.058 14.9 10.3
Brandon McCarthy LAN R 392.7 26 8 76 0.063 15.1 11.5
Kyle Hendricks CHN R 412.3 27 10 73 0.071 15.3 10.9
Jeff Locke PIT L 583.2 38 23 62 0.056 15.3 9.6
Tommy Milone MIN L 468.0 30 10 75 0.058 15.6 11.7
Kenta Maeda LAN R 141.7 9 3 75 0.067 15.7 0.1
Julio Urias LAN L 63.0 4 3 57 0.052 15.7 0.1
C.J. Wilson LAA L 520.0 33 13 72 0.054 15.8 11.3
Ryan Vogelsong PIT R 474.1 30 11 73 0.054 15.8 11.6
Jordan Lyles COL R 366.4 23 5 82 0.050 15.9 13.1
Homer Bailey CIN R 388.0 24 8 75 0.060 16.2 12.1
Scott Kazmir LAN L 666.6 41 7 85 0.059 16.3 13.9
Juan Nicasio PIT R 409.0 25 9 74 0.050 16.4 12.0
Michael Pineda NYA R 378.7 23 20 53 0.063 16.5 8.6
Rick Porcello BOS R 726.4 44 19 70 0.060 16.5 11.5
Mike Fiers HOU R 413.3 25 13 66 0.059 16.5 10.9
Kyle Gibson MIN R 531.0 32 8 80 0.052 16.6 13.3
Zack Wheeler NYN R 285.3 17 5 77 0.051 16.8 13.0
Daniel Norris DET L 101.4 6 2 75 0.053 16.8 11.3
David Huff LAA L 105.0 6 2 75 0.050 17.5 13.1
Yovani Gallardo BAL R 649.0 37 16 70 0.049 17.5 12.2
Carlos Carrasco CLE R 492.4 28 17 62 0.061 17.6 10.9
Adam Conley MIA L 197.3 11 2 85 0.046 17.9 0.2
James Paxton SEA L 251.7 14 2 88 0.053 18.0 15.7
Jesse Hahn OAK R 216.3 12 5 71 0.050 18.0 12.0
Tyler Wilson BAL R 126.3 7 4 64 0.049 18.0 0.1
Adam Morgan PHI L 164.6 9 4 69 0.047 18.2 0.2
Justin Verlander DET R 738.6 40 16 71 0.053 18.5 13.2
Garrett Richards LAA R 555.7 30 14 68 0.053 18.5 12.6
Junior Guerra MIL R 111.3 6 2 75 0.057 18.5 0.1
Taijuan Walker SEA R 318.4 17 6 74 0.053 18.7 13.8
Aaron Nola PHI R 188.7 10 4 71 0.050 18.8 0.2
Jerome Williams STL R 417.6 22 10 69 0.044 19.0 13.0
Phil Hughes MIN R 569.7 30 6 83 0.051 19.0 15.8
Jameson Taillon PIT R 77.0 4 1 80 0.058 19.1 0.1
Ian Kennedy KC R 580.3 30 24 56 0.048 19.3 10.7
Gio Gonzalez WAS L 678.4 35 22 61 0.047 19.4 11.9
Brett Anderson LAN L 272.3 14 12 54 0.045 19.4 10.5
Nick Martinez TEX R 293.0 15 7 68 0.040 19.5 12.8
Erik Johnson SD R 117.7 6 6 50 0.037 19.6 9.8
Dillon Gee KC R 475.0 24 13 65 0.045 19.8 12.8
Justin Nicolino MIA L 138.7 7 3 70 0.045 19.7 0.1
Jeremy Hellickson PHI R 537.7 27 9 75 0.047 19.9 14.9
Collin McHugh HOU R 519.4 26 12 68 0.047 20.0 13.7
Steven Wright BOS R 259.7 13 6 68 0.047 20.0 13.7
Tom Koehler MIA R 666.6 33 22 60 0.043 20.2 12.1
Tyler Chatwood COL R 262.6 13 6 68 0.042 20.2 13.8
Mike Leake STL R 750.6 37 15 71 0.048 20.3 14.4
Stephen Strasburg WAS R 670.6 33 16 67 0.054 20.3 13.7
Julio Teheran ATL R 753.1 37 15 71 0.050 20.4 14.5
Tanner Roark WAS R 531.7 26 16 62 0.051 20.5 12.7
James Shields CHA R 801.0 39 21 65 0.044 20.5 13.4
J.A. Happ TOR L 578.0 28 11 72 0.046 20.6 14.8
Jerad Eickhoff PHI R 206.7 10 5 67 0.050 20.6 0.2
Nick Tropeano LAA R 127.7 6 5 55 0.040 21.2 10.7
Clayton Richard SD L 128.3 6 2 75 0.038 21.4 0.1
Marcus Stroman TOR R 324.7 15 6 71 0.046 21.6 14.8
David Phelps MIA R 390.4 18 11 62 0.040 21.7 13.5
Chris Rusin COL L 282.7 13 8 62 0.037 21.7 13.5
Vince Velasquez PHI R 174.7 8 7 53 0.041 21.7 0.2
Max Scherzer WAS R 845.3 38 21 64 0.054 22.2 14.3
Kyle Lohse FA R 558.6 25 12 68 0.044 22.3 15.1
Kendall Graveman OAK R 270.1 12 7 63 0.040 22.4 13.5
Ervin Santana MIN R 662.3 29 16 64 0.043 22.8 14.7
Corey Kluber CLE R 780.7 34 24 59 0.048 23.0 13.5
Matt Harvey NYN R 460.3 20 8 71 0.049 23.0 0.4
Miguel Gonzalez CHA R 577.3 25 7 78 0.039 23.1 18.0
Mike Foltynewicz ATL R 208.1 9 6 60 0.036 23.0 13.0
Rubby de la Rosa ARI R 349.4 15 8 65 0.037 23.3 15.2
Kris Medlen KC R 279.6 12 7 63 0.039 23.3 0.3
Jeremy Guthrie MIA R 562.7 24 13 65 0.036 23.4 15.2
Andrew Heaney LAA L 141.0 6 0 100 0.041 23.4 20.1
Kyle Kendrick LAA R 523.3 22 15 59 0.036 23.8 14.1
Joe Kelly BOS R 380.6 16 5 76 0.034 23.8 18.1
Zach Davies MIL R 167.0 7 9 44 0.040 23.7 0.2
John Danks FA L 532.0 22 9 71 0.036 24.2 17.2
Jake Peavy SF R 510.1 21 14 60 0.040 24.3 14.6
Ross Detwiler OAK L 219.3 9 7 56 0.030 24.4 13.7
Jordan Zimmermann DET R 712.0 29 19 60 0.043 24.6 14.8
Nick Tepesch KC R 223.0 9 6 60 0.034 24.8 14.9
Chris Sale CHA L 774.7 31 12 72 0.045 25.0 18.0
Jose Quintana CHA L 778.9 31 18 63 0.040 25.1 15.9
Henderson Alvarez OAK R 312.0 12 4 75 0.038 26.0 19.5
Logan Verrett NYN R 133.4 5 5 50 0.032 26.5 0.1
Matt Garza MIL R 456.7 17 9 65 0.033 26.9 17.6
Mike Minor KC L 350.0 13 9 59 0.037 26.9 15.9
Jarred Cosart SD R 354.7 13 8 62 0.031 27.3 16.9
Jake Odorizzi TB R 522.7 19 14 58 0.036 27.5 15.8
Alex Wood LAN L 495.4 18 13 58 0.034 27.5 16.0
Luis Severino NYA R 113.6 4 3 57 0.031 28.1 0.1
Clay Buchholz BOS R 500.6 17 19 47 0.032 29.4 13.9
Matt Moore SF L 385.0 13 6 68 0.030 29.6 20.3
Chase Anderson MIL R 386.0 13 11 54 0.030 29.6 15.4
Bartolo Colon NYN R 739.0 24 14 63 0.034 30.8 19.4
Jaime Garcia STL L 375.0 12 6 67 0.032 31.2 20.8
Jacob deGrom NYN R 474.3 15 14 52 0.036 31.5 15.8
Sonny Gray OAK R 607.0 19 7 73 0.031 31.9 23.3
Carlos Martinez STL R 449.6 14 11 56 0.028 32.1 18.0
Derek Holland TEX L 387.4 12 8 60 0.029 32.3 19.4
Masahiro Tanaka NYA R 458.3 14 5 74 0.036 32.6 22.9
A.J. Griffin TEX R 296.3 9 7 56 0.031 32.9 0.3
Chad Bettis COL R 330.7 10 6 62 0.024 33.1 20.7
Jon Niese NYN L 628.4 19 14 58 0.026 33.1 19.0
Jhoulys Chacin LAA R 400.3 12 7 63 0.026 33.4 21.1
Martin Perez TEX L 418.0 12 6 67 0.025 34.8 23.2
Danny Duffy KC L 454.0 13 9 59 0.028 34.9 20.6
David Price BOS L 839.0 24 18 57 0.032 35.0 20.0
Madison Bumgarner SF L 817.6 23 26 47 0.032 35.5 16.7
Roenis Elias BOS L 286.7 8 6 57 0.024 35.6 19.1
Bronson Arroyo WAS R 288.0 8 9 47 0.028 36.0 16.9
David Buchanan PHI R 192.4 5 2 71 0.021 38.1 24.0
Zack Greinke ARI R 732.7 19 16 54 0.030 38.6 20.9
Wei-Yin Chen MIA L 624.0 16 6 73 0.025 39.0 28.4
Sean Manaea OAK L 117.3 3 4 43 0.025 38.4 0.1
Danny Salazar CLE R 469.3 12 11 52 0.025 39.1 20.4
Michael Wacha STL R 484.3 12 7 63 0.024 40.4 25.5
Williams Perez ATL R 165.4 4 0 100 0.019 40.8 0.2
Wade LeBlanc SEA L 128.4 3 4 43 0.021 42.8 18.3
CC Sabathia NYA L 561.6 13 6 68 0.020 43.2 29.6
R.A. Dickey TOR R 809.0 18 10 64 0.021 44.9 28.9
Kevin Gausman BAL R 406.3 9 7 56 0.021 45.1 25.4
Clayton Kershaw LAN L 788.0 17 18 49 0.031 46.4 22.5
Johnny Cueto SF R 696.1 15 17 47 0.024 46.4 21.8
Adam Wainwright STL R 652.7 14 8 64 0.023 46.6 29.7
Zack Godley ARI R 95.7 2 0 100 0.017 46.5 0.1
Lance Lynn STL R 580.7 12 11 52 0.019 48.4 25.2
Jose Fernandez MIA R 437.8 9 12 43 0.023 48.6 20.8
Dallas Keuchel HOU L 753.7 15 9 62 0.020 50.2 31.4
Doug Fister HOU R 628.7 12 9 57 0.018 52.4 29.9
Raisel Iglesias CIN R 158.6 3 2 60 0.019 51.8 0.2
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA R 691.4 13 15 46 0.022 53.2 24.7
Wade Miley BAL L 731.7 12 17 41 0.014 61.0 25.2
Michael Fulmer DET R 130.7 2 2 50 0.017 63.3 0.1
Matt Boyd DET L 132.0 2 7 22 0.013 63.9 0.1
Lance McCullers HOU R 206.7 3 3 50 0.013 67.4 0.2
Joe Ross WAS R 172.0 2 3 40 0.012 83.2 0.2
Patrick Corbin ARI L 432.0 5 10 33 0.010 86.4 0.4
Tyler Duffey MIN R 173.3 2 1 67 0.010 83.8 0.2
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS L 190.4 2 4 33 0.010 92.0 0.2
Nathan Eovaldi NYA R 585.0 6 9 40 0.009 97.5 39.0
Yordano Ventura KC R 506.9 5 7 42 0.009 101.4 42.2
Josh Tomlin CLE R 317.4 3 3 50 0.010 105.8 52.9
Jose Urena MIA R 115.7 1 0 100 0.007 108.1 0.1
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAN L 348.7 3 3 50 0.009 116.2 58.1
Mike Wright BAL R 118.0 1 2 33 0.006 110.2 0.1
Chris Tillman BAL R 739.6 6 15 29 0.008 123.3 35.2
Cody Anderson CLE R 141.6 1 3 25 0.007 132.0 0.1
Christian Friedrich SD L 181.9 1 1 50 0.004 169.4 60.0
Albert Suarez SF R 60.0 0 1 0 0.000 762.5 0.1

Totals by Left-Handed vs. Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (SPs from 2013-2015)

Download Table as CSV
Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!


# L/R IP SB CS SB Suc% SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB IP by SB Att
R 66,232 3932 1642 70.5 0.056 16.8 11.9
L 25,144 1288 593 68.5 0.048 19.5 13.4

  1. Count de Monetball says:
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    Great tool rudy! When did you put this up and are you going to do a writeup about it sometime?

    • Thanks. I just built it per our SAGNOF guy’s request (Mike). He’ll be referencing in future posts.

  2. Alex says:
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    couldn’t help but notice that A.J. Burnett isn’t on the list. any chance this will get fixed before I have to decide whether to play Altuve or Dee Gordon tomorrow?

  3. Alex says:
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    and no chris young!

    p.s. love, love, love the tool.

  4. Greg says:
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    Not sure if you’re monitoring these comments these days, but it’s H2H playoffs and I want to stream a speedster for Sunday – any chance to add Odrisamer Despaigne, Trevor Bauer, and hector noesi added to the tool?

  5. David says:
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    What’s usually the baseline for SB’s against a pitcher…anything over 60 percent is really good? Also, is this tool incorporated into the dfs tool when it mentions a player has .20 percent chance of a stolen base for instance? I assume it takes in rSB values, etc. in deciding the percent…

    • @David: i think the league average is something like 70% for SB/SB attempts. But the other factor is that good pitchers will limit the attempts – e.g., a Buehrle or Cueto. I only factor in handedness for SB daily projection as it’s unknown who the catcher is going to be until close to gametime. I would need to do a rather large analysis to figure out exactly how much to credit/blame pitchers vs catchers for SB attempts and SB success rate. Given how small SBs factor into DFS, it hasn’t been an area that I’ve prioritized to date.

  6. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Rudy, I love this tool. Questions though:
    Gose is facing Cueto today. He is ranked #236 above (tough to steal upon). Gose gets a .23 for SB in today’s hittertron.
    He faces Volquez on Wed. Volquez is rated #58 above (a much better bet to get a steal). Yet, Gose gets a .23 in Wed. hittertron.
    Why does he have the same likelihood of SB in hittertron, yet widely different in here? This not a factor in hittertron? (but, maybe should be?) (I may be missing something…)

    • @Fred Barker: I am only using pitcher hand for SB projections. Have a big analysis in the queue to determine how much to credit/blame pitcher vs catchers for SBs.

      • Simply Fred

        Fred Barker says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Cool. Just when one can’t believe the models can get ANY better!

  7. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Congrats on moving up the ladder the second half in ‘Perts!

    Hey, I worked this SB chart hard for the last MONTH and got very marginal positive impact. Just my two-bits:
    I would put my development effort in other areas.
    (seems like the base stealers are gonna get em; those who don’t won’t–even against pitchers who give em up)

    Finallly, some extra time to play with the kids!

    • @Fred Barker: Thx. Agreed regarding stolen bases. I did incorporate pitcher into the Hittertron SB projections and it seemed to have minor impact overall. I do think it’s most helpful for the handful of pitchers who are awesome/awful at holding guys on. But streaming for SBs is not as enjoyable or lucrative as for HRs.

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