Stolen Base Success Rates Against Starting Pitchers

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All active starting pitchers with stats from 2013 through 2016 season to date.

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Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!


# Name Team L/R IP (2013-2016) SB (2013-2016) CS (2013-2016) SB Suc% (2013-2016) SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB (2013-2016) IP by SB Att (2013-2016)
Brandon Workman BOS R 128.7 23 9 72 0.152 5.6 4.0
Jacob Turner CHA R 231.0 35 8 81 0.121 6.6 5.4
Tyson Ross SD R 522.0 79 30 72 0.141 6.6 4.8
Scott Feldman HOU R 411.6 62 12 84 0.138 6.6 5.6
Taylor Jungmann MIL R 140.0 20 8 71 0.117 7.0 0.1
Noah Syndergaard NYN R 212.7 29 4 88 0.163 7.3 0.2
Jimmy Nelson MIL R 321.3 42 10 81 0.116 7.6 6.2
Tim Lincecum LAA R 429.7 56 9 86 0.112 7.7 6.6
Jake Arrieta CHN R 505.4 65 13 83 0.162 7.8 6.5
Roberto Hernandez TOR R 400.4 51 12 81 0.109 7.9 6.4
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL R 544.3 68 17 80 0.102 8.0 6.4
Anibal Sanchez DET R 518.7 63 12 84 0.120 8.2 6.9
Gerrit Cole PIT R 516.6 62 21 75 0.123 8.3 6.2
Rich Hill OAK L 130.7 15 4 79 0.100 8.7 6.9
Jered Weaver LAA R 584.9 67 18 79 0.111 8.7 6.9
Nate Karns SEA R 222.0 25 6 81 0.102 8.9 7.2
Chris Young KC R 320.6 36 11 77 0.112 8.9 6.7
Jon Lester CHN L 699.7 77 23 77 0.114 9.1 7.0
Jonathan Pettibone CHN R 109.3 12 4 75 0.085 9.1 6.8
Drew Hutchison TOR R 340.7 37 12 76 0.094 9.2 6.8
Felix Doubront OAK L 317.3 34 11 76 0.087 9.3 7.1
Cole Hamels TEX L 699.0 72 23 76 0.103 9.7 7.4
Anthony DeSclafani CIN R 217.7 22 3 88 0.091 9.9 8.4
Brad Peacock HOU R 220.0 22 2 92 0.078 10.0 9.2
John Lackey CHN R 666.6 64 15 81 0.099 10.4 8.4
Mat Latos CHA R 480.3 46 13 78 0.093 10.4 8.1
Eddie Butler COL R 128.0 12 7 63 0.068 10.7 6.4
Charlie Morton PHI R 419.6 39 11 78 0.079 10.8 8.4
Matt Cain SF R 389.0 36 13 73 0.087 10.8 7.9
Drew Smyly TB L 357.7 33 17 66 0.101 10.8 7.2
Bud Norris ATL R 413.0 36 18 67 0.073 11.5 7.6
Drew Pomeranz SD L 229.7 20 4 83 0.084 11.5 9.6
T.J. House CLE L 115.0 10 2 83 0.070 11.5 8.9
Trevor Bauer CLE R 391.7 34 15 69 0.073 11.5 8.0
Edinson Volquez KC R 596.6 50 15 77 0.071 11.9 9.2
Yu Darvish TEX R 359.0 30 7 81 0.086 12.0 9.7
Sean O’Sullivan BOS R 120.0 10 4 71 0.061 12.0 8.6
Jorge de la Rosa COL L 526.7 43 17 72 0.070 12.2 8.8
Felix Hernandez SEA R 705.0 57 17 77 0.090 12.4 9.5
Ricky Nolasco MIN R 360.6 29 12 71 0.070 12.4 8.8
Dan Straily CIN R 275.3 22 8 73 0.072 12.5 9.2
Mike Pelfrey DET R 388.1 31 6 84 0.060 12.5 10.5
Tyler Matzek COL L 139.7 11 4 73 0.063 12.7 8.8
Alex Cobb TB R 309.6 24 6 80 0.080 12.9 10.3
Robbie Ray ARI L 208.4 16 5 76 0.060 13.0 9.5
Chris Bassitt OAK R 143.7 11 5 69 0.061 13.1 8.5
Carlos Rodon CHA L 196.6 15 3 83 0.061 13.1 0.2
Alfredo Simon CIN R 511.3 39 21 65 0.066 13.1 8.5
Hector Santiago LAA L 512.0 39 24 62 0.066 13.1 8.1
Shelby Miller ARI R 607.3 46 16 74 0.070 13.2 9.8
Adam Conley MIA L 119.0 9 2 82 0.064 13.2 0.1
Andrew Cashner SD R 523.7 39 20 66 0.071 13.4 8.9
Jason Hammel CHN R 540.3 40 10 80 0.072 13.5 10.8
Tyler Skaggs LAA L 151.7 11 8 58 0.069 13.8 8.0
Chris Archer TB R 595.7 43 17 72 0.070 13.9 9.9
Francisco Liriano PIT L 562.3 40 11 78 0.066 14.1 11.0
Cesar Ramos TEX L 225.0 16 1 94 0.063 14.1 13.2
Jason Vargas KC L 380.0 27 8 77 0.065 14.1 10.9
Colby Lewis TEX R 439.0 31 15 67 0.064 14.2 9.4
Michael Lorenzen CIN R 113.3 8 5 62 0.050 14.1 0.1
Mike Fiers HOU R 329.6 23 10 70 0.070 14.3 10.0
Kyle Hendricks CHN R 315.6 22 8 73 0.075 14.3 10.2
Jeff Locke PIT L 517.2 36 22 62 0.059 14.4 8.9
Ivan Nova NYA R 291.0 20 8 71 0.059 14.6 10.4
Matt Shoemaker LAA R 321.6 22 8 73 0.070 14.6 10.7
Jeff Samardzija SF R 718.4 49 21 70 0.067 14.7 10.3
Rick Porcello BOS R 617.4 42 18 70 0.065 14.7 10.3
Marco Estrada TOR R 518.4 35 13 73 0.074 14.8 10.8
Robbie Erlin SD L 148.7 10 2 83 0.066 14.9 12.4
James Paxton SEA L 165.0 11 2 85 0.064 15.0 12.7
Wily Peralta MIL R 542.4 36 17 68 0.055 15.1 10.2
Jordan Lyles COL R 337.4 22 5 81 0.051 15.3 12.5
Ryan Vogelsong PIT R 445.1 29 11 72 0.055 15.3 11.1
Vincent Velasquez PHI R 108.0 7 4 64 0.063 15.4 0.1
Carlos Carrasco CLE R 386.4 25 14 64 0.070 15.5 9.9
Juan Nicasio PIT R 356.7 23 8 74 0.052 15.5 11.5
Justin Verlander DET R 622.6 40 15 73 0.061 15.6 11.3
Mike Bolsinger LAN R 171.6 11 9 55 0.055 15.6 8.2
C.J. Wilson LAA L 520.0 33 13 72 0.054 15.8 11.3
Aaron Sanchez TOR R 191.0 12 9 57 0.063 15.9 8.7
Brandon Finnegan CIN L 111.7 7 3 70 0.057 15.9 10.2
Yovani Gallardo BAL R 575.3 35 11 76 0.054 16.4 12.5
Mike Foltynewicz ATL R 132.7 8 4 67 0.047 16.5 10.2
Zack Wheeler NYN R 285.3 17 5 77 0.051 16.8 13.0
Scott Kazmir LAN L 589.0 35 4 90 0.057 16.8 15.1
Tommy Milone MIN L 426.3 25 9 74 0.055 17.1 12.5
Michael Pineda NYA R 290.3 17 15 53 0.061 17.1 8.8
Odrisamer Despaigne BAL R 222.0 13 7 65 0.052 17.0 10.6
Ian Kennedy KC R 479.9 28 19 60 0.054 17.1 10.2
Collin McHugh HOU R 430.1 25 9 74 0.056 17.2 12.6
Brandon McCarthy LAN R 358.0 20 6 77 0.054 17.9 13.8
Jerad Eickhoff PHI R 110.7 6 3 67 0.058 18.4 0.1
Garrett Richards LAA R 555.7 30 14 68 0.053 18.5 12.6
Kendall Graveman OAK R 167.4 9 6 60 0.044 18.5 10.5
Dillon Gee KC R 411.0 22 13 63 0.049 18.7 11.7
J.A. Happ TOR L 487.4 26 11 70 0.049 18.7 13.2
Phil Hughes MIN R 564.0 30 6 83 0.052 18.8 15.7
Adam Morgan PHI L 114.0 6 1 86 0.048 18.9 0.1
Homer Bailey CIN R 366.0 19 7 73 0.052 19.3 14.1
Tom Koehler MIA R 568.6 29 18 62 0.044 19.6 12.1
Stephen Strasburg WAS R 593.0 30 15 67 0.055 19.8 13.2
Ervin Santana MIN R 556.0 28 16 64 0.048 19.9 12.6
Corey Kluber CLE R 671.7 33 20 62 0.053 20.4 12.7
Aaron Nola PHI R 143.7 7 4 64 0.055 20.4 0.1
Brett Anderson LAN L 268.3 13 11 54 0.044 20.6 11.2
Julio Teheran ATL R 670.4 32 15 68 0.048 21.0 14.3
Jeremy Hellickson PHI R 440.4 21 9 70 0.043 21.0 14.7
Gio Gonzalez WAS L 588.1 28 19 60 0.044 21.0 12.5
Kyle Gibson MIN R 445.7 21 7 75 0.041 21.2 15.9
James Shields SD R 722.7 34 20 63 0.045 21.3 13.4
Nicholas Tropeano LAA R 109.7 5 2 71 0.040 21.8 13.8
Wandy Rodriguez HOU L 175.7 8 0 100 0.038 22.0 22.0
Shane Greene DET R 176.7 8 7 53 0.036 22.0 11.1
Tyler Chatwood COL R 199.0 9 4 69 0.041 22.1 15.3
Matt Harvey NYN R 420.9 19 7 73 0.052 22.2 0.4
Max Scherzer WAS R 736.6 33 21 61 0.053 22.3 13.6
Kyle Lohse TEX R 549.3 24 12 67 0.043 22.9 15.3
Jake Peavy SF R 441.7 19 13 59 0.041 23.2 13.8
Jordan Zimmermann DET R 675.4 29 18 62 0.047 23.3 14.4
Rubby de la Rosa ARI R 349.4 15 8 65 0.037 23.3 15.2
Kris Medlen KC R 279.6 12 7 63 0.039 23.3 0.3
Joe Kelly BOS R 374.6 16 5 76 0.035 23.4 17.8
Jeremy Guthrie SD R 562.7 24 13 65 0.036 23.4 15.2
Andrew Heaney LAA L 141.0 6 0 100 0.041 23.4 20.1
Chris Sale CHA L 668.7 28 12 70 0.047 23.9 16.7
Steven Wright BOS R 167.7 7 4 64 0.040 24.0 15.2
Brandon Morrow SD R 120.6 5 3 62 0.036 24.1 15.1
John Danks FA L 532.0 22 9 71 0.036 24.2 17.2
Nick Tepesch TEX R 219.0 9 6 60 0.035 24.3 14.6
Jake Odorizzi TB R 421.7 17 10 63 0.040 24.8 15.6
Jose Quintana CHA L 671.6 27 17 61 0.040 24.9 15.3
Jarred Cosart MIA R 324.7 13 8 62 0.034 25.0 15.5
Jesse Hahn OAK R 200.3 8 5 62 0.038 24.9 14.3
Tanner Roark WAS R 426.4 17 10 63 0.042 25.1 15.8
Miguel Gonzalez CHA R 503.0 20 6 77 0.036 25.2 19.3
Mike Leake STL R 660.9 26 13 67 0.039 25.4 16.9
Marcus Stroman TOR R 232.4 9 5 64 0.040 25.7 15.5
Henderson Alvarez OAK R 312.0 12 4 75 0.038 26.0 19.5
Mike Minor KC L 350.0 13 9 59 0.037 26.9 15.9
Alex Wood LAN L 490.4 18 12 60 0.035 27.2 16.3
Justin Nicolino MIA L 109.0 4 2 67 0.034 27.0 0.1
Taijuan Walker SEA R 272.7 10 5 67 0.037 27.3 18.2
Matt Garza MIL R 383.0 14 9 61 0.033 27.4 16.7
Chris Rusin COL L 247.4 9 7 56 0.029 27.5 15.5
Matt Moore TB L 281.0 10 5 67 0.030 28.1 18.7
Danny Duffy KC L 341.0 12 7 63 0.033 28.4 17.9
Clay Buchholz BOS R 448.6 15 16 48 0.031 29.9 14.5
Jhoulys Chacin LAA R 331.3 11 6 65 0.031 30.1 19.5
David Price BOS L 717.6 23 16 59 0.036 31.2 18.4
Jon Niese PIT L 566.4 18 12 60 0.028 31.5 18.9
Jacob deGrom NYN R 379.3 12 12 50 0.036 31.5 15.2
Chase Anderson MIL R 321.0 10 8 56 0.028 31.9 16.9
Derek Holland TEX L 355.4 11 8 58 0.029 32.3 18.7
Sonny Gray OAK R 539.0 16 7 70 0.030 33.7 23.4
Madison Bumgarner SF L 709.2 21 22 49 0.034 33.8 16.5
Matt Wisler ATL R 170.3 5 1 83 0.027 33.7 0.2
Chad Bettis COL R 245.1 7 5 58 0.023 35.0 20.4
Zack Greinke ARI R 673.4 19 14 58 0.033 35.4 20.4
Bartolo Colon NYN R 642.3 18 10 64 0.029 35.7 22.9
Bronson Arroyo WAS R 288.0 8 9 47 0.028 36.0 16.9
Carlos Frias LAN R 110.0 3 4 43 0.024 36.0 13.8
David Buchanan PHI R 192.4 5 2 71 0.021 38.1 24.0
CC Sabathia NYA L 465.6 12 6 67 0.022 38.8 25.9
Williams Perez ATL R 155.4 4 0 100 0.020 38.3 0.2
Carlos Martinez STL R 350.3 9 9 50 0.023 38.9 19.5
A.J. Griffin TEX R 233.7 6 2 75 0.027 38.9 0.2
Kevin Gausman BAL R 315.0 8 5 62 0.025 39.4 24.2
Masahiro Tanaka NYA R 355.6 9 4 69 0.031 39.3 25.4
Danny Salazar CLE R 407.3 10 9 53 0.024 40.7 21.4
Wei-Yin Chen MIA L 573.7 14 6 70 0.024 41.0 28.7
Raisel Iglesias CIN R 123.6 3 2 60 0.023 40.5 0.1
Jaime Garcia STL L 288.4 7 4 64 0.026 41.2 26.2
R.A. Dickey TOR R 715.4 17 9 65 0.023 42.1 27.5
Johnny Cueto SF R 592.1 14 14 50 0.027 42.3 21.1
Dallas Keuchel HOU L 655.0 15 7 68 0.023 43.7 29.8
Jose Fernandez MIA R 349.8 8 10 44 0.026 43.7 19.4
Clayton Kershaw LAN L 746.0 17 17 50 0.032 43.9 21.9
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA R 590.7 13 14 48 0.026 45.4 21.9
Lance McCullers HOU R 141.4 3 1 75 0.020 46.2 0.1
Lance Lynn STL R 580.7 12 11 52 0.019 48.4 25.2
Adam Wainwright STL R 561.4 11 5 69 0.022 51.0 35.1
Michael Wacha STL R 408.3 8 7 53 0.019 51.0 27.2
Vance Worley BAL R 262.1 5 8 38 0.016 52.4 20.2
Martin Perez TEX L 314.6 6 5 55 0.017 52.4 28.6
Doug Fister HOU R 530.4 10 9 53 0.018 53.0 27.9
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS L 121.7 2 2 50 0.015 59.0 0.1
Yohan Flande COL L 127.3 2 1 67 0.014 61.7 31.7
Wade Miley SEA L 657.7 10 15 40 0.014 65.8 26.3
Nathan Eovaldi NYA R 515.0 5 5 50 0.009 103.0 51.5
Chris Tillman BAL R 645.3 6 13 32 0.009 107.6 34.0
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAN L 344.0 3 3 50 0.009 114.7 57.3
Patrick Corbin ARI L 355.3 3 9 25 0.008 118.4 0.4
Joe Ross WAS R 130.4 1 2 33 0.008 121.7 0.1
Cody Anderson CLE R 131.0 1 3 25 0.008 122.2 0.1
Yordano Ventura KC R 417.3 3 5 38 0.006 139.1 52.2
Josh Tomlin CLE R 222.7 1 3 25 0.005 222.7 55.7

Totals by Left-Handed vs. Right-Handed Starting Pitchers (SPs from 2013-2015)

Download Table as CSV
Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!


# L/R IP SB CS SB Suc% SB / Est SB Opp IP by SB IP by SB Att
R 54,604 3261 1373 70.4 0.057 16.7 11.8
L 20,512 1039 477 68.5 0.048 19.7 13.5

  1. Count de Monetball says:
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    Great tool rudy! When did you put this up and are you going to do a writeup about it sometime?

    • Thanks. I just built it per our SAGNOF guy’s request (Mike). He’ll be referencing in future posts.

  2. Alex says:
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    couldn’t help but notice that A.J. Burnett isn’t on the list. any chance this will get fixed before I have to decide whether to play Altuve or Dee Gordon tomorrow?

  3. Alex says:
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    and no chris young!

    p.s. love, love, love the tool.

  4. Greg says:
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    Not sure if you’re monitoring these comments these days, but it’s H2H playoffs and I want to stream a speedster for Sunday – any chance to add Odrisamer Despaigne, Trevor Bauer, and hector noesi added to the tool?

  5. David says:
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    What’s usually the baseline for SB’s against a pitcher…anything over 60 percent is really good? Also, is this tool incorporated into the dfs tool when it mentions a player has .20 percent chance of a stolen base for instance? I assume it takes in rSB values, etc. in deciding the percent…

    • @David: i think the league average is something like 70% for SB/SB attempts. But the other factor is that good pitchers will limit the attempts – e.g., a Buehrle or Cueto. I only factor in handedness for SB daily projection as it’s unknown who the catcher is going to be until close to gametime. I would need to do a rather large analysis to figure out exactly how much to credit/blame pitchers vs catchers for SB attempts and SB success rate. Given how small SBs factor into DFS, it hasn’t been an area that I’ve prioritized to date.

  6. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Rudy, I love this tool. Questions though:
    Gose is facing Cueto today. He is ranked #236 above (tough to steal upon). Gose gets a .23 for SB in today’s hittertron.
    He faces Volquez on Wed. Volquez is rated #58 above (a much better bet to get a steal). Yet, Gose gets a .23 in Wed. hittertron.
    Why does he have the same likelihood of SB in hittertron, yet widely different in here? This not a factor in hittertron? (but, maybe should be?) (I may be missing something…)

    • @Fred Barker: I am only using pitcher hand for SB projections. Have a big analysis in the queue to determine how much to credit/blame pitcher vs catchers for SBs.

      • Simply Fred

        Fred Barker says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Cool. Just when one can’t believe the models can get ANY better!

  7. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Congrats on moving up the ladder the second half in ‘Perts!

    Hey, I worked this SB chart hard for the last MONTH and got very marginal positive impact. Just my two-bits:
    I would put my development effort in other areas.
    (seems like the base stealers are gonna get em; those who don’t won’t–even against pitchers who give em up)

    Finallly, some extra time to play with the kids!

    • @Fred Barker: Thx. Agreed regarding stolen bases. I did incorporate pitcher into the Hittertron SB projections and it seemed to have minor impact overall. I do think it’s most helpful for the handful of pitchers who are awesome/awful at holding guys on. But streaming for SBs is not as enjoyable or lucrative as for HRs.

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