For the most part, there is general theme that I try to cover in this series. Usually, I like to concentrate on the heavily owned guys, say, in the top-100. And within that 100-or-so range, I try to focus on ones that scare the shittake mushroom out of us. Or, players who show us something that is unexpected. A new skill or the deterioration of production are prodded, shaken (not stirred) until we find a suitable conclusion. This is what I do. And while [player]Jhoulys Chacin[/player] definitely does not fit the former of what I cover, he does fit the latter quite well. And while he won't get confused as a player in the top-100, there was a time and a place not too long ago when he was considered a guy with potential, and a pitcher, who, if everything came together, could be a lot more. Plus, you know, this is my series, I do what I want.
I’m taking a break from telling you some obvious guys are keepers (Joey Votto is a keeper?! Get outta town, Grey!) to tell you Jhoulys Chacin is a keeper in some leagues. No, he’s not a keeper in 12 team mixed leagues if you’re choosing between him and Halladay (unless Halladay will cost you $75). Please, blog, may I have some more?
The White Sox have been homer-less all season. Not literally. But it's been bad. Andrew Vaughn (1-for-3) hit his 16th homer. It is so wild that he leads the White Sox in homers. White Sox all went to the offseason seminar at the Ramada titled, "Arraez and Shine," hosted by Luis. This September Eloy Jimenez (0-for-3, 1 run) became the first White Sox player in a month with five or more homers. On the reals, that's awful. Is it the humidor? Tony La Russa muttering, "Bunt" from the hospital bed he's had them tow into the dugout? Or something else? I'm not sure, but it's comically bad. Though, yesterday was a reprieve. Yasmani Grandal (2-for-3) hit his 5th homer. Yasmani is generous, more like Yasbarelyani. Yoan Moncada (4-for-5, 2 runs) hit his 10th homer. I'm not joking when I say it looked like the White Sox were taking batting practice vs. Hunter Gaddis. Gaddis sounds like gibberish for "Got his ass," and they did, indeed. Elvis Andrus (1-for-5) hit his 14th homer, and will once again be in this afternoon's Buy column, because otherwise would be malpractice, and you'd sue me, and I'd have to relocate to Mexico under an assumed identity, and get mixed up with a bunch of anarchists. Finally, Gavin Sheets (1-for-4, 2 RBIs) hit his 13th homer. Fun fact! I call my toilet, "Havin' Shits." Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Greetings, Razzfam!
I mostly play a doctor on tv, but occasionally, I stretch a pair of latex gloves down and over my hands, letting them slap with a satisfying pop across my wrists. Open up wide because today is one of those days! Please, blog, may I have some more?
For those of you old enough to remember a time before Survivor and American Idol, you might recall the era of Kaizen that permeated the economies of the 1980s and 90s. In Japanese, kaizen means something like "continuous improvement," and it was one of those old pre-capitalist ideas that got co-opted by industrial society. So instead of like, running a bit farther every day or being 10% happier, the concept of kaizen turned into this phantasm of continual product improvement and personal productivity maelstroms. Maybe you're running faster, but it's because your job needs you to finish your work and somebody else's work at the same time. Product sprints. Agility. Synchronicity (and not the album by The Police). But "continual improvement" done in the name of producing things faster, doesn't necessarily mean that the actual product is any better.
It's really not a surprise that the fantasy sports world also adopted this kaizen mentality -- more products, somehow "improving," but ultimately making fantasy players work harder. How many people are old enough to remember when a copy of Baseball America and a printer was the complete setup to play fantasy sports? Now we've got data providers everywhere. How many accounts do you have with a data provider? I've got [thinks for a while] six? I'm still learning about fantasy analysis sites that I've never heard of before, and I've consumed fantasy content on the regular since Firefly was on actual broadcast TV. And which provider is better? Is it the one that outputs data the quickest? Is it the one that makes you laugh? Is it the one that uses the least amount of preface to their articles?
All this to say: I've "improved" my system a bit this week. Is it actually better? Who knows. I worked on it, I'll tell you that much. I used best practices and data-backed principles learned from years of study. I had a "Hypeonator" that said if a player was "Hype" or "Whack" and then I deleted it. I merely open doors -- it's up to y'all if you take the hype. That said, let me share a bit of the terminology that I'll be bringing to the fore for the upcoming articles.
Welcome to week 4 -- the week where all the data finally makes sense and the futures of every player become written in stone! Not really -- that's kind of the wonky thing about baseball -- it might take years to make effective predictions about player performance (see Greinke comma Zack). For me, May is where I start to vaguely pay attention to baseball again because the stats are meaningful again. DFS becomes a bit more predictable, and the rest of us fantasy ballers (Grey's mom's word) are ready to spew out meaningful and actionable takes. Like, "Sit that clown Lucas Giolito! I kid, I would never bad-mouth a White Sox player [stares at Dylan Cease].
Let's learn about some interesting players!
I'll be honest: a lot of the job of a fantasy sports writer is constrained by search engine optimization and giving audiences what they expect. This article, for example, is ostensibly about starting pitchers. But what *is* a starter, anyway? So many teams are using openers now. So many teams are letting pitchers go 4.2 IP, or piggybacking, or bullpen games, or long reliever, or, or, or. And tee-bee-ache (pronounce that last word softly, like you're staring longingly into its eyes waiting for the next clause), starters don't require a mass of innings pitched to be effective for fantasy baseball. In 2021, Corbin Burnes finished SP5 with 167IP, Carlos Rodon SP10 with 132IP, Jacob deGrom SP13 with 92IP (!), Freddy Peralta SP14 with 144IP, and so on. Unless you're in one of those quality starts league --
which I established in the pre-season were just different ways of slandering a Win -- you could really roll with any number of "pitchers," broadly speaking, and do fine.
We're in the endgame of the fantasy season at this point so it's time to get your roster dialed and ready. Let's get down to business and check in on the pitcher projections for the rest of the season in points leagues. Points were calculated based on the criteria below and taken from the Steamer/Razzball Rest of season
projections, same as in previous versions of this list.
We took a look at hitters last week which means its time for pitchers. Below you will find the scoring formula that I used to arrive at these numbers based on the Razzball/Steamer projections
Innings Pitched (IP) 3
Hits Allowed (H) -1
Earned Runs (ER) -2
Walks Issued (BB) -1
Strikeouts 1
Wins (W) 5
Losses (L) -5
Saves (SV) 5
I'm sure the first question on everyone's mind is where does first half superstar Shohei Ohtani land on this list and in the overall projections. He comes in quite a bit lower than I was expecting, barely making the list at all with only 100.9 points projected from his time on the mound. Combined with his batting numbers his overall projection is 285 which would make him the number one player over the season's second half. He is only projected to throw 42 innings which seems like a total he can surpass. It will be interesting to see how the Angels choose to deploy him in the second half, but if he continues to make regular starts on the mound his point total could shoot up.
Cheap is a relative term here, but the fact that Trevor Bauer ($11,000) is not the most expensive pitcher on tonight’s main FanDuel slate is a bargain. Sure, Rodon has been great, but Bauer is the top option tonight by a long shot. Miami ranks in the bottom ten in team OPS and in the top ten in team strikeouts. Bauer is at home and should absolutely cruise to victory. The Stream-o-nator has Bauer as double the value of every other pitcher tonight and he should be good for nearly double the FanDuel points. For cash games, there is really no other option, but you can feel free to get frisky in GPPs. If you’re rostering Bauer, you’ll need to dig for value bats, but if you want all those pricey Coors bats, you’ll need to get creative. Let’s dig, shall we.
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For next year's All-Star Game: The best of the AL and NL will face off against just ex-Mets players. Maybe they can get Steven Matz (4 1/3 IP, 8 ER, ERA at 8.20) to pitch the Home Run Derby too. He's useless otherwise. Oh, don't worry, Matz is a great 2nd half pitcher, so wait until you see him around September 1st. Wrong city transpo line and total mixed metaphor, but the Nats T'd off on Matz like they were his daddy and Asdrubal Cabrera (4-for-4, 3 runs, 5 RBIs and his 2nd and 3rd homer) was in charge of doling out the punishment. Then Juan Soto (3-for-4, 3 runs, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer) was the uncle who came in to tell Asdrubal that the Mets had enough, only to wait until no one was looking and lay a noogie on them himself. Then, as Sexy Dr. Pepper left the room, he tagged in Treat Urner (3-for-5, 2 runs, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer) who laid all 155 pounds of himself into them. If the Mets ever let Pete Alonso go, he might be the first to hit five homers in a game. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Live for today. That's what they tell me. "They" are BASE jumpers, so I'm not listening to them, which is why I'm living in a bubble with the NBA players. "Hey, LeBron, where can I get some bubble tea?" "Ah, man, I hear ya, players be gossiping like crazy." "What are you talking about? I want boba." So, the Marlins vs. Orioles and Yankees vs. Phils had to be canceled due to an outbreak within the Marlins' clubhouse. The Marlins couldn't play back in Florida vs. the O's, and might've infected the Phils' visiting clubhouse, so the Yankees weren't going in there. All in all, a totally well-functioning pandemic. By which I mean, it's terrible for us, but this virus is doing well for itself. "Manfred, man" hasn't been uttered so much since "Blinded By The Light" was a hit in the 70's. Now PPD stands for Pandemic Please Desist. Right now, the MLB is waging an age-old war: Everyone's safety vs. Capitalism. Not to impersonate the Garbage Pail Kid, Nihilistic Ned, but capitalism usually wins that. Of course, don't misunderstand my glibness for not caring (that sounds like a Common lyric); I'm just trying to be real with you. As for fantasy, I moved all Marlins, Orioles, Yankees and Phils out of my lineups until further notice, and tried to bench all Marlins in my weekly leagues. As they say, WHEEEE!!! Again, "they" are BASE jumpers. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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