Mat Latos has been on six different teams since 2015, DFA’d three times and some how is still pitching in the big leagues. He's actually been pitching pretty well in his couple starts this season, carrying a 3.27 ERA and has only allowed 1 HR in his 11 innings. However, a trip to Yankee stadium on Tuesday night should change those numbers in a hurry. New York Yankees currently rank first in runs scored and HRs hit in the American league. Meanwhile, Latos FIP is 5.48, so his 3.27 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story; he is due for one of those outings where he gives up a couple long balls and 6-7 runs. Bats like Aaron Judge ($7,600), Didi Gregorius ($7,200), Jacoby Ellsbury ($7,500) and Starlin Castro ($7,200) could prove to be a nice stack for the night.
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If you happen to be a non-millennial reading this then you remember a time when # meant “Pound” and didn’t mean “Hashtag”. If you are a millennial you’ve likely already skipped this intro and skimmed the rest of the picks. After all, you’re entitled to win at DFS with minimal research and time invested. The DFS sites owe it to you, just like your boss owes it to you to give you that raise despite the fact you don’t actually do any work all day. We’ll be using the pound sign today to discuss how the O’s are going to # on Mat Latos this evening. I’ve had issues with Latos for some time, I mean, what self-respecting Matt goes by Mat anyway? This year though, the issues with Latos are greater than ever. This guy has the nerve to masquerade as an ace with his sub 1 ERA and WHIP. We here at Razzball aren’t fooled however. We see the real numbers under those fraudulent ones and we are ready to pounce. The 4.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 tell the real story, as does his 3.56 FIP. The regression fairies are just dying to pay Latos a visit, right after they finish cutting off all their jeans into shorts for the summer. I, for one, want to be there when this correction happens, and not just for the cut off jean shorts. Chris Davis will be heavily owned but if Pedro Alvarez finds his way into the lineup tonight, he might be an under the radar play that could pay handsome dividends. The Orioles don’t have much else in the way of lefty batters however Mat Latos hasn’t really shown a dramatic platoon split in his career, so just load up on every O you can get your salary cap around and enjoy the #ing.
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Last night, Mat Latos looked like he was headed for the Disgraceful List. He didn't fool anyone. I didn't say he didn't fool any hitters because he was facing the Braves, they don't have any hitters besides Freeman. After giving up seven runs, he didn't get out of the first inning, replaced by Brad Hand. Here's some tweets Dallas Latos wanted to write, "Keep pitching like that and Hand will replace me too." "My third collagen injection blew up less than you." "I knew I should've slept with Cueto." In the preseason, I should've dropped Latos in my rankings when Rudy wrote his warnings. I screwed up. I did mention last week about staying away from him, but it was likely too little, too Latos for most of you. I think you could likely sell very low right now -- like for a Brain Freeze closer -- and still be happy just to get Latos off your team because he looks like Latoast. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Everyone has their own method of determining their draft board and I imagine mine is rather unique. My early focus is on playing time/injuries so I can run Steamer rates against them and run the results through my Player Rater $ calculation. I then compare this against NFBC ADP and any expert drafts to get a sense for the outliers. As the preseason crawls on, I find myself digging into more and more players and determining whether they are players I want on my team based on their market value.
My tweak this year has been to analyze the outliers (guys my Player Rater is high/low on) earlier in the preseason. Projections are far from perfect and I have no problem drafting a guy above or below my $ value if I feel passionately about his value. These analyses are not terribly thorough - just scanning their FanGraphs pages for peripheral stats and reading Baseball Forecaster
and Baseball Prospectus
player summaries (the former of which being more helpful than the latter). I also check against Grey's rankings so I can identify on which players we will inevitably debate.
Below are three pitchers - Julio Teheran, Mat Latos, Tyson Ross - where my Player Rater is way more pessimistic than the other sources I have reviewed. While my reasons vs Steamer's reasons may differ, it still ends up with the same conclusion: I think these guys are being overvalued and I cannot see how any of three will end up on any of my teams.
There are some tempting (and ‘spensive) names on the SP menu tonight, but as always, my eyes gravitate to my boy, [player]Mat Latos[/player] ($8,800). He draws the Brewers at Miller Park tonight, a place where he has failed to earn a W in 6 career starts. That comes to an end tonight. Latos is due to pop his cherry at the home of the beer makers. He has pitched well against Milwaukee this season, registering a 2.57 ERA and .184 BAA in 21 IP. The Brewers also look like they are going into choke mode as the season winds down. They haven’t scored more scored more than 4 runs in their last 6 games, and they now find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in. Latos is going to spin a gem on the cheap, and if you want to find some other undervalued options to pair with him, look no further than beyond the sales pitch below.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 team league of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to check the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
I watched Mat Latos yesterday. Now I want an eye transplant with someone that watched Jamie Moyer pitch (not when he was first called up because that eye transplant would have cataracts). I wish I could pinpoint what the problem is with Latos, besides looking terrible. Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Ghost of George Steinbrenner stands with the Ghost of Billy Martin, discussing how when you're dead, they realize, you can see the future. They decide the best way to communicate this future they see, where the earth is ablaze, is through a medium. The medium's name is Aaron Boone. After an elaborate seance with lots of candles, they realize they are not witnessing the future, but they are actually in hell. The Ghost of Billy Martin says, "The heat does help with the hangover." Then they ask the medium how the Yanks are doing. Aaron tells them, and Billy punches him, while George fires him. With that guy gone, they take over control of the team and the Ghost of Billy and George bring up, Everson Pereira. The other day I said Pereira could be better than Volpe. (That was meant as a compliment.) Itch's said, "Pereira strikes out a lot for a premium prospect, but he makes enough impact that he could still catch on as a regular without making significant gains in the contact department. If he does figure out how to strike out less than the 30-ish percent rates he’s carried throughout his career, the 6’0” 191 lb Pereira will lay waste to the pitchers in his path. He’s not a burner but stole 21 bases in 28 attempts across two levels and should be able to chip in 10-plus big-league steals without much trouble. Or 'good trouble' like beating up Grey." Okay, not cool. Speaking of not cool, during this time of year it's better to go with a vet, who is hot, then a guy brought up by two guys who are hot as hell, but Everson could be rostered in all leagues looking for a power/speed upside play the final month-plus. Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
In the biz, we call this an "In Appreciation Of" post. This is in appreciation of Tildaddy. The one and only: Ronald Acuña Jr. (4-for-8, 3 runs, 4 RBIs and a double slam (14, 15) and legs (29), hitting .333). Tildaddy says you are done with your chores! Scientists should get together Ronald Acuña Sr., Fernando Tatis Sr., Bobby Witt Sr., Michael Harris I and other former players, who have elite MLB sons, and let them study them. Like the movie, Concussion, but call it Cushion Pushin'. Tildaddy is running away with the top spot on the Player Rater, and--Well, one of his home runs yesterday went 461 feet and it looked like he was barely swinging. Put that together with a guy who might have 45 steals by the All-Star Break, and we're looking at a possible 40/70 season. I just nearly fainted. I need to sit down. Sits in a hole labeled "People who faded Acuña in the preseason." Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Mitch Haniger fractured his forearm on a pitch, which was his most solid hit this year. Giants' beat reporters are saying Luis Matos is being called up. Luis Matos being called up is fun. I like fun. Transitive! I like Luis Matos. He had hit six homers in the last six MiLB games. Total damage in the minors: 9/15, and he was hitting .396 in Triple-A. Can I get a giddy up, pardner? Itch said two days ago he was on his Prospect Stash List. Itch said previously, after Matos was coming off a disappointing previous year, "The premium bat speed remains. He just needs to develop better plate discipline. He has the hands to make contact with most pitches, so he swings at most pitches. That has to change. Development is not linear. He’s got time, and I might do time if I find where Grey lives." Okay, honestly, I'm scared. So, I grabbed Matos in my shallowest leagues. He's got power and speed, and he's crazy hot. Let's see how far it takes him. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Mookie looking like we all looked at the news. All the news.
With the recent blockbuster trade between the Dodgers, Red Sox and Twins now null and void, what was supposed to be a week-long extravaganza of both real and fantasy analysis all around the interwebs has now turned into broken dreams (for Dodgers fans), confused relief (Twins fans), and a strange sense that all the middle fingers in all the universe raised all at once (MLB fans in the direction of Boston). But as one who goes left (max three times, or you know, it's just the Daytona) when the world goes right, instead of talking about the trade, or if the Red Sox know what they're doing or ever did, or about what a medical report reveals, I wanted to take a step back in time (twang it like Huey!) and highlight some of the most notable three-team trades that have taken place in the 21st-century (this one like Duck Dodgers!)...
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This weekend, I was kneeling in a garden, tending to my Monkey Face Orchid, when I heard some commotion outside my greenhouse. It was my much, much older wife, Cougs, screaming, "Grey! They've come for you." It was the Rockies, and they were trying to send me to the minors. They trampled over my azaleas with their jackboots, dragging me through the soil, ruining my suspenders. I tried to tell them, "You have the wrong man!" Finally, they heard my pleas and checked my state ID card. Before they left, I asked, "Who are you looking to send to the minors?" They replied, "Jon Gray," and I began to scream again, "Please! Take me instead!" So, Jon Gray was optioned to the minors. Can't say I fully blame the Rockies, but, of course, I can try. Have the Rockies heard of underlying peripherals? Sure, the results have been miserable, but it's Coors and everything says Gray should be much better. You really have a better replacement pitcher who is worth ruining your best pitcher's confidence? He has the 6th best xFIP in the league with an 11.6 K/9. I honestly can't even with the Rockies. They are the worst. Then, they brought up Raimel Tapia to fill the roster spot, so, of course, Tapia will sit on the bench. WHAT THE HOLY EFF ARE THE ROCKIES DOING?! Caps for emphasis and the hyperopic. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Much like in real baseball, in fantasy, timing can be everything. On Monday, Grey mentioned that he’d like to find a term for a guy who does what [player]Tommy Pham[/player] did this past Sunday – that is, a guy who goes off on Sunday afternoon, driving up his Sunday night FAAB price. I need a slightly different way to describe this phenomenon in my deepest NL and AL-only leagues, as both have weekly waivers that get processed on Saturday night. I’ve been in one of the leagues for years now, and I’m still not used to it. I don’t know why the founding fathers of this league thought it was a good idea to run waivers on Saturday when everyone and their dog knows that Sunday evening is the proper time to be thinking about one’s FAAB budget (hell, I half expected my computer to auto-correct when I typed the phrase “waivers on Saturday.”) I can only assume it’s to put those of us who might be extra busy/drunk/etc. on Saturday at a disadvantage, and I’m afraid that this particular strategy works on occasion. The week in 2014 that [player]Jacob DeGrom[/player] and [player]Anthony DeSclafani[/player] were called up, it was hardly my fault that I wasn’t sober enough to rank DeGrom ahead of Disco in my waiver claim list! It haunts me to this day, as it’s a keeper league where I would still have DeGrom at a bargain-basement price… as opposed to the three weeks of bargain-basement pitching I received before I unceremoniously dropped DeSclafani.