As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we're looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn't allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.
Let's start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.
Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I'm excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.
Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):
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RCL Update, Week 16: All the All-Duds
July 15, 2014 | Razzball Commenters League | 36 Commentsby: Jay
All-Duds... sounds like a candy. But, if we are taking it literally, it would be candy flavored as poop. Or, actually, now that I think of it, it would be flavored as duds. Which might taste like poop, but I've tasted neither, so I cannot deny, nor confirm the flavor. So yeah, that's right, we're here at the All-Star break, an event which has actual real-world MLB ramifications, yet is regarded like a Bono press event by fans and players alike. Thanks Bud Selig! What's the cure in our RCL corner? As I might have alluded to it with my candy-poop, (call me, ladies), I hereby refuse your All-Stars. I don't want them, I don't need them, and since I'm already knee-deep in the fantasy football warm-up (clutch link drop right there), I honestly have no idea who the All-Stars are. But this would be true of any season, seeing as how I care as much about the game as I care about my asparagus intake. Which is to say, not at all. So let's have fun, and make an All-Duds team... a team, dare I say, full of poop...
Note: In a perfect world, I would tally a vote for this, then again, in a perfect world, I would be the one and only ruler of all that I see before me... which, if we're still being literal, would be my basement. And I may have just stolen a quote from The Lion King. Anyhow, I chose these playerss using the arbitrary criteria of having at least 250 PA's / 100 IP for SP / 28 IP for RP, and sucking every single orifice around them. Like your mom.
Tsuyoshi Wada hit the majors leagues yesterday, so let's talk about the new Yu Darvish! Actually, that's Masahiro Tanaka. Okay, let's talk about the new Hiroki Kuroda! That's Ryu. Uh, the new Cubs pitcher that I'm excited about? That's Arrieta. The new pitcher that autocorrect tries to change his first name to tsuris? By the by, is my autocorrect anti-Semitic? Why does it suggest tsuris? Because I'm half-Heb? And why did autocorrect just change Jew to Heb. Siri, dial the Anti-Defamation League and apologize. "Dialing your mother now." Siri, not cool! Any pitcher that does compare to Wada? Yes, the new Bruce Chen. So, Wada is a rookie in name only. He's 33 years old, and the first rookie with salt and pepper hair to throw five shutout innings since Satchel Paige. He's also a soft-tossing lefty. Yawn. He might catch some hitters off-balance, but he's probably around a high-6 K/9 and a 4 ERA pitcher. Yesterday's line of 5 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks is okay, but not much to flap your gums about outside of NL-Only leagues. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Getting STATy With It: Potential Homerun Decliners (and Improvers)
July 5, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 21 Commentsby: Dano
Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:
Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).
Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.
The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.
Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.
Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):
The Sciosciapath gave Ernesto Frieri the dreaded vote of confidence the other day, so, of course, he wasn't there when a save presented itself in the 10th inning of a 3-1 game. Cam Bedrosian entered the game with his 10+ ERA. He's the one guy I would trust less than Frieri, but not to worry, The Sciosciapath had Frieri come in once Bedrosian was in a jam, and Ernesto promptly gave up a grand slam to Nick Swisher, who is batting .200 this year. Joe Smith would seemingly be used to get all future saves, but The Sciosciapath ties his shoes with Crazy Glue and uses the non-pronged side of the fork to eat and thinks Alan Hunter was better than Martha Quinn and once bought Styrofoam peanuts to snack on and his voicemail is "Siri, how do you leave an outgoing voicemail message?" and he thinks arithmetic is the work of witches, so I have no idea where he's going the next time the Angels have the lead in the ninth. He says they'll go to a committee, but I'd own Smith. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Hold Your Hand Closer, Tiny Man Sore
June 13, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 479 Commentsby: Grey
Yesterday, the Astros had a scare when Jose Altuve was hit hard on the hand by a pitch and he immediately left the game. Because of the nature of Altuve's hand, a broken bone would've been devastating. You know those tiny boats that people use tweezers to put into little bottles? Those people are called tinyshoremen. Tinyshoremen are the only ones capable of working on a hand as petite as Altuve's. Finding a doctor who is also a tinyshoreman? Good luck with that! Thankfully, X-rays came back negative and he's day-to-day. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
The Game Of Throws Starring K’ing Felix
June 9, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 828 Commentsby: Grey
Yesterday, [player]Felix Hernandez[/player] had the best game of the season for fantasy -- 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 15 Ks. F-Her was the best thing to hit the world since Natalie Portman decided it was a good idea to get naked for a short film. Granted, that short film was by Wes Anderson. In film school, it was always met with a mixture of amusement, bewilderment and excitement when any student filmmaker convinced an actress to take their clothes off for a student film. Invariably, they were a better salesman than auteur if they were able to pull it off. "So, your husband, hungry for approval, just left you for a ham sandwich and now you want to shed your clothes, which is a metaphor for the stripping of your soul. Don't worry, it's a locked set." I've talked in the past about how if a pitcher has a difference of six between his K-rate and walk rate, then he's usable in all leagues. F-Her has a difference of plus-8. That's glorious. He has 106 Ks to 17 BBs. That's insane. His ERA is at 2.39. He's real and he's magnificent. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
V-Neck Shirt Good, Yu-Neck Stiff Bad
May 28, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 868 Commentsby: Grey
For the 2nd time in two months, [player]Yu Darvish[/player] has woken with a stiffy. A stiff neck, that is. Perhaps he should swallow the Viagra pill rather than letting it dissolve in his mouth before bedtime. On the fo'serious, what's the problem with Texas and necks? I blame the NRA. They insert themselves in national debate, always pointing their finger at people and away from themselves. That's the Neck Rehab Association. That was clear, right? What does Yu's bed and pillow arrangement look like? Did he have his favorite Japanese architect of those tiny little cot-beds that are in hotels in Tokyo design his house? Maybe the Hello Kitty pillow is meant more for adornment rather than comfort. Can I have answers, I insist on truthiness. If I were the Rangers, I'd probably take a look at how he's sleeping, that's all I'm sayin'. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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Bauer Hour is Upon Us (Again)
May 17, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 152 Commentsby: Dan Pants
Bauer is back. You have 24 hours to pick him up before someone else does and the terrorists win. Cleveland Indians pitcher/rapper/counter-terrorist [player]Trevor Bauer[/player] will be called up to start Tuesday versus the Tigers and likely take over [player]Danny Salazar[/player]'s spot in the rotation. The third overall pick in 2011, Bauer has filthy stuff, with numerous pitches at his disposal, including that sweet 95-97 mph fastball. He has struggled with control during his brief stints in the majors (7.1 BB/9 in nine major league starts), which has ultimately kept him from finding success in the big leagues. However, in a spot start in early April (6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 8 K), it seemed like Bauer's command issues were a thing of the past. Granted, that start was against the Padres, but he impressed nonetheless. Although he labored through his latest minors start (5.2 IP, 12 base runners, 6 ER, 4 home runs), the Indians obviously think Bauer is ready to show his stuff, and I don't mean his free-styling ability. Yeah, he raps. Does that make you like him more or less? Not so sure? Maybe you should listen and judge for yourself. He's still not as bad as P. Diddy. Whether you believe T-Bau's a gifted lyricist or not, his 4-1 record, 2.15 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and a 44/14 K/BB ratio in 46.0 IP at Triple-A this season could certainly help out your fantasy pitching staff. If he can pitch twice as good as he can rhyme, Lil' Trev could be headed from the "Gutter to the Grail" like his song. He raps, "From gutter to grail, we rise up to win it/Wahoos on first with his eyes on the pennant." So Trevor Bauer can spit hot fire, let's see him throw some hot fire next week versus Detroit. Based on his upside, he's worth the add in all leagues. To quote the the Notorious T.R.E.V., "Getting filthy with the pitch...getting stupid throwing cheddar," pick up Bauer in your league, cause buying Bauer makes you better.
Here's what else happened Friday night in fantasy baseball:
[player]Mark Ellis[/player] is considered a clubhouse leader. Listen, I'm gonna be real with you, there is no substitute for a leader in the clubhouse. These are real world intangibles you can't quantify. Unfortch, no one has Clubhouse Leader as a fantasy category in their league, so good riddance as [player]Kolten Wong[/player] was recalled. As Pitbull kinda says, "Hey, Mark Ellis, you're going down, I'm yelling timber! Swing your butt, Mark Ellis is going down, he's going down. I'm yelling timber!" Hopefully, the Cards give Wong a legit chance to play, but that's not entirely clear yet. They should, since he could be Pedroia-like. For whatever reason the Cards seem to have a hard time going with a rookie in any kind of substantial role, but I'd still grab him in deeper mixed leagues. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Getting STATy With It: Expected (x)BABIP and the Guarantee Fairy
May 13, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 45 Commentsby: Dano
There are so many Tommy Boy quotes that I can manipulate to start this post, so you choose which one...
a) I can get a good look at Luck by sticking my head up BABIP’s a**, but I’d rather take xBABIP’s word for it.
b) I write fantasy baseball posts for the American working man, because that’s who I am and that’s who I care about.
c) You: “[player]Prince Fielder[/player], Hmmmm, he should get better."
Me: “This guy is batting .231, which is actually backed up because of the gross groundball rate (11+% jump) and hitting into the shift with a sense of urgency, and all you can say is, Hmmmm, he should get better?”
d) The season is drivin' along, la-de-da, woo. And you have [player]Justin Morneau[/player] batting .338. And then you look at your team. Tires go EEEEEEEEE! Whoa, that was close.
Now let's see what happens if you have Prince Fielder on your team… You're drivin' along, Tires go EEEEEEEE! I CAN'T STOP! "Oh my God, I'm burning alive! And this isn't a fire sale! No! I can't feel my legs!" Here comes the meat wagon. And the medic gets out and says, "Oh my God". New guy's around the corner puking his guts out…
...Whichever quote you go with, if you own Fielder then consider yourself the new guy puking his guts out. This post is the meat wagon.