Not your Grandfather’s Top 100 Starting Pitchers…
I'm sure this won't come as a surprise, but Grandpa-Donk is what they call a "Donk of all trades". At one point in his legendary life, the venerable jackass even tried his hoof as a weatherman. In fact, he was one of the first weatherdonks on television back in the '50s.
When I was just a little donkus, no bigger than Trevor Bauer's poodle, Gramps would gather all us youngins round and tell us about his days of Hollywood stardom. The weather forecasting tools back in his time were just as primitive as the are now, so he was frequently way off on his prognostications. But he always delivered his forecast with the classic family wit, mixing in his token skyarrhea toilet humor and even the occasional dong joke, which was very risque back in his day. Grandonkey would always finish his meteorology tales with one bit of sage advice, "Find an occupation where you can be wrong 90% of the time and people still come back for more".
Writing the Top 100 Starting Pitchers post in 2019: the year of the juiciest of juiced balls, and baseballs, I imagine is exactly like being a weatherdonkey. Just other day, when The Kooch was getting lit up for the 17th consecutive outing, G-Donk called me up to tell me how proud he was that I had discovered my niche. Actually, he called to ask where he might find a fresh pair of Señor Crappers, but I could sense the pride in his voice.
The only thing we know about 2019 Starting Pitching is there's going to be lots of rainy days with a few random sunny days mixed in, followed by a tornado which will destroy what's left of your already fugly ratios. Your 2019 fantasy pitching staff is more or less going to be Seattle with a little bit of Kansas, but we're all living there in rainy tornado alley with you; so quit your whining and grab an umbrella!
Speaking of umbrellas, Mike Minor has provided a pleasant refugee from the storms this season, and he's only become sturdier as the summer monsoons set in, sporting a 1.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 37 June innings. Unfortunately, there's some large red regression fairies lurking here, the first of which is a massive and unsustainable 97.5% strand rate over this past month. Pair that with a lucky .200 June BABIP, and Donkey begins running for new shelter. I'd aggressively shop Minor if someone in your league thinks he's actually a top 20 pitcher, but I wouldn't sell him for
a cup of Grey's baby gravy. I'll take a guy that might continue getting lucky over a cup of Grey goo any day.
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On the first pitch Justin Upton (2-for-4) saw back from the IL, he slammed it into the seats for his 1st home run. Kevin from ESPN's "Get Him In Your Lineup" Department said, "Anyone who wants to come over on Saturday, I'm doing a screening of the short film I did about O.J. Simpson and a lovable group of his former Bills teammates plotting to break into a Vegas casino to steal back his memorabilia called, O.J.'s Eleven. I play O.J. in blackface." People have been asking about adding Justin Upton, and he's currently owned in 70% of ESPN leagues, though Klara Bell owns 17,000 teams to help fill his virtual trophy case, and doesn't own Upton, so, technically, Upton's owned in 101% of leagues, but, if he's available, I'd add him everywhere. Prior to his injury, he was a top 30 outfielder, and see no reason why he can't do something similar from here to there. There being October. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Not your Grandfather's Top 100 Starting Pitchers...
You're at the local grocer staring at a shelf in the cereal aisle, wishing you were watching baseball and/or Naked and Afraid. Perched next to each other on the shelf are a $4.00 box of Cocoa Puffs and a $2.00 box of Choco Spheres. Do you choose the known quantity name brand or take a gamble on those mysterious spheres at half price? It was always an easy choice for frugal old Grandpa-Donk, he didn't build his fortune of Donkey-units by purchasing the luxury orbs of chocolate. To this day Gramps would poop himself if we ever brought home a box of Depend's Diapers. It's Señor Crapper's or nothing for the old timer.
So Didi was activated and played on Friday, and FanDuel surprised the heck out of me by preemptively raising his price to $3,000. The only conclusion I can draw from this is that random price setting guy at FanDuel reads my articles. So thank you, random FanDuel Price Setting Guy for doing the dirty work and making Didi Gregorius $3,000 instead of $2,000, you truly are a Real American Hero (cue the music from those Bud Light ads about Real American Heros / Real Men of Genius). I got nothing else for an introduction today, but the next time I need FanDuel to do something, I shall make sure to include it in the article.
On to the picks...
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Not your Grandfathers Top 100 Starting Pitchers…
These baseballs are juicy. Juicier than
Grandpa-Donk's drawers the first time he visited Méjico. The juicy balls are causing some major volatility among our starting pitcher ranks this year. Few pitchers are exempt from the pitcherocalypse. Carlos Carrasco has suffered from severe constipation each of his last three outings, Tyler Bauer ate some questionable China-Buffet during May, and Patrick Corbin's Gatorade was spiked with laxatives in Cincinnati this past Friday. Even the mythical Yusei "The Kooch" Kikuchi has required adult diapers for his two recent explosions.
As the driver of the Kikuchi Razzwagon, I do apologize for crashing us into a Porta-John these past two weeks. There's been talk of The Kooch tipping his pitches; I like the narrative, it makes me feel a little better, but I'm not sure it's true. His command was flat out awful in those two blow ups, as hitters teed off on his hanging off speed pitches. It was also his third time facing the A's and second time facing the Angels; his funk may suffer from the law of diminishing fantasy returns once teams have gotten a good look.
Regardless, I can't blame anyone for moving on in 10-12 teamers, but I might give a reach around thru this buy-window in deeper leagues.
Is that a buy-window or a guillotine? Just leave me alone random italicized voice! The Kooch is a crafty veteran who will benefit from some extra rest this week, a trip to the laundromat, and a heavy dose of prune juice. Don't be surprised if there's another dominant run in store as we get the Kikuchi Razzwagon back up running, and deodorized, this summer.
Masahiro Tanaka's first 11 starts have been about as good as you could've hoped when you drafted him around the 30th-40th SP off the board. It felt like he was being ignored in some leagues and came at quite the value. He's a no doubt starter this week with the way he's been performing, but it may be a good opportunity to sell high on the veteran pitcher.
Most of the numbers are in line with his career (GB rate, LD rate, K rate, BB rate, 1st strike rate). However, there are a few indicators that he's been a little lucky and his stuff may not be quite what it has been in previous seasons, specifically his moneymaker, the splitter.
His swinging strike rate is down to 11.1% from 14.1% in 2017 and 15.1% in 2016. His 77% contact rate is the 2nd worst of his career along with career worsts in hard hit rate, launch angle, and average exit velocity allowed. 80.6% left on base rate isn't completely unsustainable, but it would be the highest of his career.
It's my belief, and the numbers back me up, that the splitter is not the pitch we've seen in previous seasons (below), which is leading to less swing and miss, and harder contact. The vertical movement on the pitch is the worst we've ever seen from Tanaka. His swinging strike and K rates are down, and of his 3 primary pitches (FB, Slider, Splitter), the splitter is the only one that has a worse whiff rate at 11.69 down from 22.99 the previous season and easily the worst of his career. The batting average against the split finger is .333 this season compared to .220 and .191 in the previous 2 seasons. Similarly, the slugging percentage is up to .560 this season vs .344 in 2017.
I don't believe that Tanaka is just going to fall apart and if you need a steady arm to balance your roster, I think he's fine, but with his current numbers I believe you may be able to sell him high compared to what he provides the rest of the season.
For the Seattle Mariners, all is lost...
Well, well, well.....What in the ever-loving mother of the elder gods do we have here!!? Baseball is upon, guys/gals, and after taking a brief hiatus to give my absolute all to battling some forces that were severely limiting my effectiveness as a writer, I return to thee thirsty for battle, lusting for justice, soothsaying for savants, and fully equipped to do battle with any who shall oppose me in this art form of writing about the game we know and love; Fantasy Baseball. I have missed this so much, truly, I have. Sadly, you are not here to read about me and newfound love of life and everyone in it, but to discover sort of a basic understanding of what the Seattle Mariners are up to.....I will try to put it into words, which may prove difficult, being that I'm not allowed to drop F-bombs or post dick pics, but here's a hint; IT'S ALL BAD!!!!! Like, it's rotting badger carcass under your backseat bad, when whom you believe to be your dream girl blows up your bathroom after railing an eight-ball to the face bad, like, any Nicolas Cage movie from the last ten years bad, like, REALLY, REALLY, ASTRONOMICALLY PISS POOR!!!!!! Say one thing for the Seattle Mariners, say they are going absolutely going to be one one of the five worst teams in the sport this season.
Before I get started, did anyone read the Minnesota Twins preview? I was starting to blast the dude on Twitter for buying fake followers, only to realize he's a professional wrestler!?!?!?! WHAT!?!?!?! Is this real? Can someone confirm? If so, it is with great honor that I accept this cohabitation of mannishness, and look forward to continuing the greatness of Razzball, thee premier site for fantasy baseball. Aaaaahkay, now let's set it off in this MF.
I am Tehol Beddict and this is your Seattle Mariners team preview. TAKE HEED!
Check out our other team previews here!
Do you remember the last time you swung and missed?
Maybe it happened at your beer league softball game? Or maybe it was during last week’s company-wide meeting when you thought you’d tell that funny story about the peanut butter thing but screwed up the beginning, and nobody laughed—not even Amber from accounting who giggles at everything—so you sat down all hot faced, feeling stupid all day?
Or maybe you’re thinking of that day you finally asked out Amber from Accounting, and that time she did laugh?
Nobody likes to swing and miss, is all I’m saying. And nobody likes that awkward what-what of trying to save a story from a bad opening line. Here’s some baseball-related proof:
One thing I always like to reference when digging for starting pitchers on a given slate is total team strikeouts. If a team is striking out a ton, that only increases upside in a given match-up. It’s for this reason I tend to avoid using pitchers in DFS who are facing the Kansas City Royals. The Royals do in fact stink, but as a team, they don’t strike out as often as say, the Padres do. So, pick your crappy team carefully. Tonight, on this juicy 11 game slate, I’ll be using quite a bit of Zack Godley ($16,800). Godley was a big target of mine coming into this year and he’s disappointed, there’s no getting around that. However, he gets a match-up in San Diego that een he should be able to handle. He’s still rocking a 9+ K rate, but his 4 walk rate has killed him. Fortunately, the Padres are also near the bottom in total team walks (24th of 30). Couple that with their league worst .660 OPS vs. RHP and I think you’ve got yourself a winner.
New to FantasyDraft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!
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Alex Trebek, "The $500 clue is, 'Now.'" "The time I pooped my pants on national TV." "Sorry, that's not correct. Susan?" "What is now? Like now? Now now? What kinda answer is now?" "Sorry, we can only accept your first question, 'What is now?' and that is incorrect. Grey, you buzzed in last because you were on your phone picking up a streamer for tomorrow. The answer is, 'Now,' your question is..." "What is the time to pick up Eloy Jimenez?" "That is correct. You control the board." "Okay, I'll take 'Uber/Lyft for $500." "Your neighbor uses this World War II pun when describing them." "What is Taxis of Evil?" "Right again!" Any hoo! As Alex Trebek illustrated in the most roundabout way, now is the time to pick up Eloy Jimenez if you have room. He is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball in Triple-A like he's putting the finishing touches on his Roy Hobbs Halloween costume -- 11 HRs, .345 in 37 games. I mean, over-the-internet friend, he's 21 and doing that? He's going to be special. Only question now that ends in a period is will the White Sox call him up when rosters expand in September. My guess is they do and he starts the year with the club next April. He's going to be a star with little Jeopardy. Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
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Yesterday, Ronald Acuña Jr. (5-for-8, 5 runs, 5 RBIs) hit a leadoff homer in both games of the doubleheader, and became the youngest to homer in four straight games in the live-ball era. Wistful sigh, member those good ol' zombie dead-ball era stars? Acuña now has 17 homers and 8 steals in 66 games. Oh, I'm sorry, you my daddy? It's hard to understand how a 20-year-old can be my daddy, but I think you my daddy. When that family that raised me told me to put mime makeup on every morning, I didn't put it together, but now I know the one true thing in this world that only 23andMe and a gut feeling can tell me, Acuña is my daddy. I'm going to start calling him Tildaddy. Not as in 'until I find my true daddy, you will be my daddy.' Not Tildaddy as in what a teenager who works a cashier at a Waffle House makes his co-workers call him. Tildaddy as in sloppily jamming tilde and daddy together. You're my Tildaddy! People keep asking in the comments where I think Tildaddy (my fetch) will be drafted next year. If you prorate his numbers out, he'd have 35 homers and 20 steals as a 20-year-old. I'm sorry, you Machado's Tildaddy too? You Goldschmidt's Tildaddy? ARE YOU MIKE TROUT'S TILDADDY?! He is at least a top 25 pick in 2019 and I might shock the world and shove Tildaddy in my top 15. Un...Til...Daddy shows me different. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Can we all just take a moment on this fine Monday morning to appreciate what Juan Soto is doing? It truly is incredible. At 19 and having come straight from Double A, he's taken the league by storm and should be well on his way to ROY honors. He's hitting for power (14) and average (.303), plus he's walking at an impressive clip (17%). That last stat puts him near the top of the league. Perhaps his most impressive stat is his wRC+, which corrects for park factors to show how well Soto creates runs. He currently sits behind only 5 other hitters in that regard; he could be among the top for teens, all time. Oh yeah, his OPS is .975, too. That's a lot of fancy stats to tell you this teenager might be pretty good. But here's the most important factor of all: Hittertron likes him tomorrow for your lineup on Draft.com. What more do you need to know?
New to Draft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
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