I know, I know. I promised everyone [player]Dallas Keuchel[/player], but he's pitching tonight! His last start was so long ago that [player]Jose Abreu[/player] still seemed like a good guy to trade for if someone wasn't selling too high (ack!). So long ago that Jay Z seemed to still love his little sister-in-law!
But do not fret, I promise unless there's a Noah-type monsoon that floods out four games, that Keuchel will be next week on his weekend start.
So in my despair when I saw Keuchel was tonight and not yesterday, I went to Twitter for some ideas and got a great one for [player]Ryan Vogelsong[/player]. I gotta admit - I love Vogelsong. Helped carry me to titles in both 2011 and 2012 where he stayed undervalued for an entire 2-year stretch. Pretty hard to do. But 2013 was a disaster with hitters bashing him at a .299 clip, suffered a 5.73 ERA, and I guess the more appropriate adjective use of "suffer" would be for his broken hand on a comebacker. It was in a 5-inning scoreless game too! Talk about the worst timing, right whence he was turning it around.
In 2012, everyone ignored Vogelsong because he started the year on the DL and I think he missed all of one start. Noobs! To ignore him (like I obviously did) based on a terrible 2013 for a 36-year-old pitcher I think is more logical. But he's got his velocity back up to 2012 levels, dropped the line drive rate, and has four gems in his last five starts. Indeed, it felt only logical to break down his start yesterday against the Marlins, and if he can indeed make another under-the-radar lasting impact on fantasy teams in 2014:
For all of today's news and lineup notes, all with a Canadian/Arizonian accent (if that's such a thing, I'm assuming it is unless they already deported it) here's Nick the Podcast Radio Host with today's HotSheet!
To be fair,
[player]Johnny Cueto[/player] is good, but that's not the name of the song. Pitching a complete game, three hit shut-out with eight strikeouts is quite an impressive start, until you realize it was against the Padres. You gave up three hits against them? What is this? Kevin Correia hour? Even though those nine innings struck me as quite pedestrian, his last 63.0 IP have been quite impressive. And seeing as how he's one of the eighteen pitchers who has survived so far without a tendon exploding, he could be well on his way for a Cy Young caliber year. And while the red flags are few and far between, I would be remiss not to mention them. First, his LOB% is insane at 99.5%. Yes, he's really great at holding runners, but the league average is 72.8% and his career average 76.6%. Second, his BB% is unchanged, but his K/9 is 9.71, compared to a career number of 7.19, and there's really no reason why. The velocity has remained the same. There's been an uptick of two-seamers with less sliders and change-ups... but if it was sequencing, we'd need a bigger sample. If it's a case of getting called third strikes at a higher rate, that would demand regression. And, of course, there's always injury-risk. But in the year of the Tommy John, I'll feel relieved if someone's arm doesn't literally just fall off during a game this season. But hey, pitchers have career years. And when good pitchers have career years, well, ahem, they have career years? Uhh... I was in trouble like six words in...
Here's what else I saw on Thursday (besides yo momma):
In the past, I've gone out of my way to focus more on rookie hitters than pitchers, but after last year and living through season-after-season of diminishing offense, this is the world we live in. Before you blame anyone, look in the mirror. What do you see? Besides, the blackheads. You see someone that supported baseball ridding itself of PEDs. So, this is what we have. Pitching up the wazoo. I still contend it should be 'out the wazoo' and not 'up the wazoo,' but I'm playing by your rules now. I'm no longer sticking it to the man and going up the wazoo. Hmm, that sounded wrong, but never the hoo!
[player]Kevin Gausman[/player] just barely maintained rookie eligibility by only pitching 47 2/3 IP last year. Really showing a thing or two about not knowing what was coming or going either by having a 5.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. It really means nothing. First of all, his xFIP was 3.04, so his ERA shouldn't have even been that bad. Second of all, he had a 9+ K-rate, which is right in line what you can expect. Third of all, there is no third of all. Why would you think there was a third of all? Gausman isn't a 5+ ERA pitcher. He could be the best rookie pitcher this year. He has that kind of stuff. With the O’s, you gotta mind your P’s and Q’s. Excuse me, I had Alphabet Soup for lunch and just burped. What I mean is the O's aren't in the best division for nurturing along a young starter. You have to be on the top of your game in the AL East. Gausman has the stuff to tame the big offenses. As I've tried to beat into your head, a pitcher with great control and strikeout stuff is worth your attention. Gausman is that type of pitcher. The only real question is do the O's stay with him in the rotation. If today's game vs. the Tigers is a spot start and back to the minors, it's not great. Opportunity + Stuff = Fudgie the Whale. Wow, my math is off there. It should've equaled "worth a flyer in all fantasy leagues to see if he stays in the rotation." To give you an idea of this guy's upside, in Prospect Scott's
top 25 fantasy baseball prospects, the top five are Tanaka, Abreu, Bogaerts, Taijuan and then Gausman. That's elite company. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
So I forgot to throw it in last week, but I was thinking to myself, "what are some baseball 'catch phrase' calls I would make if I were a broadcaster?" If a batter chased a breaking ball, I would exclaim "and he's gone gone chasin' waterfalls!" Hmmmm, what would my home run call be... I need some ideas here! I know the Dodgers need a replacement play-by-play guy next season...
Then to the profile for today, and I wasn't sure where I was going to go.
[player]Chris Archer[/player] seemed a good fit since he's underperformed, but I did
break him down once last year. Then in my "aha" moment of the weekend, I remember my gone gone chasin' waterfalls bit and noticed
[player]Chase Anderson[/player] was set to make his MLB debut! It's like the baseball gods are talking to me! Thanks for the title, Shoeless Joe. (If a pitcher you'd like to see for next week's Profile pitches next Sunday, please remind me and throw in a comment on Sunday or tweet me @jbgilpin - I will take requests! But I do like to keep it to guys pitching on Sunday.)
With an injury-plagued first three years as a pro, Anderson seemed like a dooming last name for a starting pitcher (see, Brett). Chase finally got himself through a big chunk of work in 2012, pitching pretty well in 104 AA innings, then was limited to only 88 innings in 2013 and was awful in AAA. But just like Robert Downey Jr.,
he's done with Anne Heche and ready for a comeback! (way to stay topical, JB...) Anderson started this season breezing through AA with a dazzling 39 innings to the tune of a 0.69 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 38 Ks. Sure he's already 26, but the injuries have held him back and he finally got his MLB debut yesterday against the White Sox. I decided to check it out and break it down to see if anything's there for spot-starting or a deeper league stache [
sic]:
I know I've had some requests for more fun pitchers, but [player]Dillon Gee[/player] was a guy I ranked high and a guy I kept high. And very early on "I tried to figure out why... I had him so high!", but lately dude has been tossin' gas!
The very under-appreciated Gee ended 2013 on a tear, pitching with a 2.41 ERA from May 30 to September 15 - with 100 Ks in 137.1 IP in 20 starts. So ridiculously under the radar that Lord Helmet must've jammed it!
As a non-Mets fan and non-Gee owner in any leagues at the current present, I haven't buckled down to watch any of his starts as of late. And with three scoreless outings out of his past four - giving up two runs total in those four - I decided to break down his start yesterday at the Rockies and if Gee should be owned in a lot more than 38% of leagues:
Razzball Nation! I used today's title to try and embody the question everyone is having looking at their waiver wires...
Who the hell is this guy?!
Before his ridiculous debut at Safeco, [player]Collin McHugh[/player] had pitched less than 50 ML innings with an ERA that resembled an Extenze advertising claim. Called up to fill in for a DL-bound Corey [player]Scott Feldman[/player], McHugh got a struggling Mariners offense with swiss cheese bats for 12 Ks and no walks in 6.2 for his first win - giving up three singles and no earned. I love that before the start, Bo Porter said McHugh is a "pitch to contact guy." Good thing the Mariners ain't got no contact right now!
I watched some highlights of the Ks that game and was lukewarm impressed, but McHugh went out and shut down the A's, who have a pretty solid O these days. #Moneyball! So I decided to take a deeper look at his hot start to 2014 and break down what he could offer fantasy owners looking for some SP help:
More terrible relievers turning into dominant starters, mo problems!
So it’s been an up-and-down start to this young season – pretty much all of my sleepers except maybe
[player]Corey Kluber[/player] (who I still like a lot) are doing great,
[player]Nathan Eovaldi[/player] still looks pretty good and
I remain bullish on him, but
[player]Tyson Ross[/player] who I bailed on turned in a gem on Saturday.
Then to my rankings, where, yes, I didn’t have
[player]Jesse Chavez[/player] ranked last week. I had him at 102 and couldn’t break him in, then Monday night he went out and carved up the Angels for 9 Ks in 7 innings with only one earned. I mentioned that night in the comments I would have to add him in there, but before Monday he was a terrible career-reliever with only one eye-popping start at the Twins. I’m regretting not adding him somewhere (“welcome to the party, pal!”), as I streamed some guys yesterday who weren’t awful, but would’ve preferred Chavez. And I would’ve been right too, as he dealt another solid game. Here’s how he looked yesterday against the Astros:
Happy Easter, festive heathen Razzaholics. You look so cute in your
Easter bonnet. Have one of these Cadbury eggs I injected with Makers Mark, all Hunter S. Thompson-style. Now that’s a scotch egg! Come on funny feelings. Eat three of these and you’ll be seeing that
Donnie Darko bunny in the mirror for a week. We’re going on a little Easter egg hunt today looking to fill our basket with sweet delicious bargains that’ll resurrect our ruined roster. Despite being crucified by injuries this season (I’ve lost
[player]Matt Latos[/player],
[player]Ryan Zimmerman[/player],
[player]David Robertson[/player] and now
[player]Michael Cuddyer[/player]) your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru is still hanging in there with three of my five RCL teams in the top three of the standings. While it’s still early, standings can change quickly and one bad week could ruin me. I’m hurting for power and the SAGNOF! has been elusive thus far. That’s what we’re looking for today – homers, steals and saves. So strip out your Sunday best, toss the Easter tree out onto the front porch and stuff your face with Peeps, it’s time to jam it or cram it.
"I know it was you, Alfredo, you broke my heart--because I should have picked you up yesterday. You're nothing to me now. Not a brother, not a friend--but, I'll admit you may be an intriguing add in fantasy baseball this week." Michael Corleone's words for his fantasy team are harsh but true. Reds pitcher [player]Alfredo Simon[/player] continued his streak of success yesterday, pitching six scoreless innings versus the Cubs, allowing just six base runners and striking out three. Coming off the heels of an eight inning gem last week against Tampa, where he allowed just one run and struck out four, Alfredo now has pitched 21.0 innings, allowing just 2 ER and 13 hits, while grabbing two wins. It looks like he'll stick in the rotation while [player]Mat Latos[/player] is on the shelf. Simon's sparkling 0.86 ERA is good for top 3 in the league, and the 0.81 WHIP sure is purdy. But before you go racing to the waiver wire dropping your [player]Stephen Strasburg[/player]s or your [player]R.A. Dickey[/player]s for this guy, just wait a second. Because I didn't say Simon says? Got ya! I know. Bad. I'm sorry. Anyway, let's examine if Simon says you should grab Alfredo or not. If we look closer into the starts, it's a small sample size but we get the sense he's been pretty lucky so far, and not just because he's faced the Mets, Rays and Cubs. Simon's .194 BABIP is good for top 10 in the league. Along with a 3.14 FIP (3.90 xFIP) and an insane 94.3 LOB% we have a ton a nerdy stats that say major regression coming. Translation: Alfredo is probably gonna get sauced. Mama mia! That's not to say that those numbers are not still very good. After moving to Cincinnati from Baltimore, Simon was awesome in relief, with a 2.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in two years from 2012-2013, way above his career averages (3.98 ERA and 1.33 WHIP). And he's been extremely efficient as a starter this year as his 13.4 pitches thrown per inning (roughly 3.5 per batter) shows. Doode is doing work. The 13/4 K/BB ratio is nothing special, but he is working efficiently in his starts, going deep into games. So Simon says, if you need a streamer you can grab AlFredo for his next start in Pittsburgh. He's under 20% owned, and he's making us an offer we can't refuse. Ride this hot streak out for now, but if he's ready to sleep with the fishes don't hesitate to take him out to the middle of Lake Tahoe and take care of business.
Here's what else happened Friday night in fantasy baseball:
"What's it short for? Ya know, like Rosstopher?" "Just Ross!"
I had cautious optimism heading into the year for [player]Tyson Ross[/player], and he looked pretty wild early on. And not the good kind of wild. No one in San Diego is wearing Wild Thing-Ross T-Shirts. I caught most of his debut against the Dodgers, and he didn't look right. Hitchy delivery, lower velocity, and terrible control. Since he was fringy anyway, in the one league I owned him (deeper 10-team), I cut him loose for some scrub closer. I don't even know who, probably [player]Matt Lindstrom[/player], who at least vultured a win for me yesterday.
Anyway, I saw Ross was bad again in his second effort, racking up 9 walks to only 9 Ks through two games, somehow escaping with a 4.50 ERA because he piled up 6 unearned runs. Needless to say, I was pretty content to ignore him, but yesterday he turned it around against the offensively-charged Tigers. Since it's still early, maybe he had an early mechanical issue that got worked out, and he's back to picking up where 2013 left off. So I decided to break down his start, and see if he needs to be scooped off waivers in leagues where he was dropped or undrafted:
[player]Ryan Zimmerman[/player] should just join a kickball league. His upper stuff doesn't work right. He's got a bad case of waist-up-is-not-up-to-snuff-is. He should tent his entire body, because he's got an infestation of the bad health termites. They lay dormant, living off of bacteria that is produced naturally by your secretions. Then one day you wake up and you dive into the 2nd base bag and break your thumb. The preceding was taken directly from WebMD, I can't vouch for its accuracy. It's a thumbpocalypse! So, Zimmerman's gonna be out for six weeks with a broken thumb. I'd point out that I told you on Friday to sell him, but that's in poor taste. As would simply pointing and laughing at you. Mostly due to the fact, I don't know where you are, you don't return my phone calls! So, put Zimmerman on your DL, and let's pray his shoulder gets miraculously better in the mean's while. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
My fantasy roster is like Rick and his Walking Dead gang, just waiting around to be fattened up for the slaughter in that train car. Doesn't Daryl have a hidden crossbow? Feel free to kill off Beth though. Currently my team has lost [player]Cole Hamels[/player] and [player]David Robertson[/player]. Not too bad, but couple that with the injuries to[player] Adrian Beltre[/player], [player]Andrew McCutchen[/player] and [player]Yasiel Puig[/player], and my team is on the verge of doing a Hershel. I feel like we should cue up that cheesy music they play at the Oscars when they pay tribute to those stars that died over the past year. Last week, the fantasy world lost [player]Josh Hamilton[/player] (smattering of applause), [player]Matt Moore[/player] (gasps) and [player]Avisail Garcia[/player] (men openly weeping). Just bury them with all the other guys still on the DL – [player]Clayton Kershaw[/player] (at least he’s throwing again), [player]Matt Latos[/player] (skipping rehab start this week, uh-oh) and [player]Jose Reyes[/player] (was born on the disabled list). Add [player]Troy Tulowitzki[/player] (quad), [player]Adrian Beltre[/player] (quad), [player]Koji Uehara[/player] (shoulder quad), and [player]Joe Nathan[/player] (dead arm quad) to the walking wounded list as well (guys hurtin’ but not DL’d) and we have a World War Z-sized fantasy apocalypse. Injuries are expected every year, but does it seem like there are more this season? Can I blame instant replay? Harold Reynolds? Someone or something is responsible. Quick, get [player]Bartolo Colon[/player] to throw some stem cells in the Gatorade. I hear that helps. *note to self: Pitch embryonic energy drink to Gatorade, make millions, get killed by pro-life crusaders.* It’s time to bring in the fantasy reinforcements. Let’s scour the waiver wire for players owned 50% or less in most leagues and see if we can cure what’s ailing our battered and broken roster. It’s time to jam it or cram it.
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