Sometimes, you wanna feel like the smartest guy/gal/thing in the room. Of course, that would have to make the title 'Summa Iwakuma Laude' but I didn't like the flow of 'Summa Iwakuma'. My titles are ridiculous enough anyways, I don't need unintentional rhyme muddying the waters along with it. So we chose 'with great honor' rather than 'with highest honor'. We just replaced 'cum' with [player]Hisashi Iwakuma[/player]...you better read that word in latin, perv! Not Hisashi, of course, since his name is in his native language of Japanese. So did I just create a new language? Jatin? Lapanese? Eh, I'll leave the Bennifers to Hollywood at this point. But really, Hisashi should make you feel like you graduated with honors from Sports Tech Fantasy University (GO STFU!) as his price of $9,100 on DraftKings puts him behind the big three 10K+ pitchers on the day but the Stream-o-nator says his start is the tops of his class on the day. I do think because of the bigger names on the slate, Iwakuma will have a slightly lower ownership than normal despite the fact his start is at home and against a whiff-happy team. Much like my pick up skills will be on the Razzball Radio Tour, the Twins strike out rates are at the bottom of the league already but when they step out on the road, they're even worse as they own the second worst K% while out Jack Kerouac'ing. So let's swing our tassel from one side to the other and walk down that aisle...ahem, I meant graduation tassels and the hat. Seriously! Well, whatever, you've graduated to the rest of the picks. Now get out of this lead and take your dirty mind with you! Here's the rest of the Razzball picks for July 7th contests...
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Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:
Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).
Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.
The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.
Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.
Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):
Wanna really mess with your brain? Think about how you could have the same thing as Guy Pearce in Memento and you would never know. Okay, don't think about it too long, it'll mess with your brain too much and then I'm gonna get sued by your loved ones. "Judge, Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario (don't abbreviate it), told my darling boy, Josh, to think about how he could have a brain dysfunction and now I have to change his diaper and order in for Chinese food every fifteen minutes because he keeps forgetting he just ate." That's your momma in front of the judge, suing me. Steve Pearce is a thirty-one-year-old journeyman. That's not a cartographer, that's a guy who isn't very good and just travels around offering his services for all-you-can-drink Gatorade. Yes, he hit two homers yesterday and has hit 9 homers in just two months while batting .336. This isn't a matter of "Maybe he's breaking out now." No, there's no breaking out for Steve Pearce. He doesn't even sound right if you don't say his full name. There's no Steve and no Pearce. There's only Steve Pearce and he's the hottest schmotato in the land and is worth picking up while he's swinging a hot bat, but I wouldn't expect it to last that long. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
When Jaime Garcia was a kicker in high school for his Flick Football team, he lined up the paper football, just left of the finger uprights across from him, adjusting for the southwesterly wind coming from a student's handheld fan. Like it was happening in slow motion, he flicked hard, the paper sailed through, poking the kid's eye that was holding the finger uprights. Unfortunately, Garcia also pulled a finger tendon and had to watch from the sidelines the rest of the year as his team marched to the playoffs. Ever since then, he's never been able to shake the injury bug, and yesterday he hit the DL with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately for the rest of us, the Fantasy Baseball Overlord's hunger for ruining pitchers' arms didn't stop at Garcia, and Michael Wacha is out with a shoulder injury too. Wacha, Wacha, f**ka! Wacha has a stress reaction on his shoulder, and the Cards are saying no surgery is required, but his fantasy owners may still want to make a Kenesaw Mountain Landis out of Doritos and pray to it. The good news, Carlos Martinez will now be in the rotation for at least another month. He went 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 baserunners, 5 Ks yesterday, and I'd grab him in most leagues now that he's staying in the rotation. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
A lot of talk has been made about the Fantasy Baseball Overlord causing all of these injuries this year. What people haven't mentioned as much is the why. FBO was born in a small Jamaican village outside of Kingston. His family was wealthy from manufacturing fertilizer, though this came with a severe downside -- the smell of manure. Knowing how cruel kids can be, it's no surprise they would pick on FBO. The school jocks, specifically the baseball players were the worst. Constantly mocking his ever-present stench, they nicknamed him Fecal Body Odor, or FBO for short. It got so bad that teachers and adults started calling him FBO. Eventually, people called him FBO without even knowing what it stood for. Rather than trying to shake the nickname, FBO decided to have it empower him. First, he tried to get into banking, thinking he could convince people it stood for Fixed Buyout. Then he got an internship with the Field Botanists of Ontario. Neither worked for him, but he did have some knowledge of voodoo from his Jamaican aunt and always harbored hate for baseball players, so Fantasy Baseball Overlord - or FBO, for short, was born. With that said, Adam Wainwright went for an MRI on his elbow and the FBO said, "Eat it, Wainwright!" The Cards are saying his UCL is fine and it's just tennis elbow. Hopefully this isn't game, set, match for him. He received a cortisone shot, and there's no word yet on a DL stint. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
For the 2nd time in two months, [player]Yu Darvish[/player] has woken with a stiffy. A stiff neck, that is. Perhaps he should swallow the Viagra pill rather than letting it dissolve in his mouth before bedtime. On the fo'serious, what's the problem with Texas and necks? I blame the NRA. They insert themselves in national debate, always pointing their finger at people and away from themselves. That's the Neck Rehab Association. That was clear, right? What does Yu's bed and pillow arrangement look like? Did he have his favorite Japanese architect of those tiny little cot-beds that are in hotels in Tokyo design his house? Maybe the Hello Kitty pillow is meant more for adornment rather than comfort. Can I have answers, I insist on truthiness. If I were the Rangers, I'd probably take a look at how he's sleeping, that's all I'm sayin'. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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This page has some solutions to let you spiff up your blog with links to our player pages. If you bless your reader(s) with one of these solutions, let us know and we will do our best to return the favor. Please, blog, may I have some more?
I put a poster of David DeJesus up on my bedroom wall. Cougs said to me, "Grey, why do we have a picture of David DeJesus on our bedroom wall?" She was right. It was silly to put DeJesus up on my wall. So I cut out his face, cut out his lips, cut out his eyes and taped it around her face with masking tape, so she could see and talk to me through DeJesus. Then I asked my religious poster-ography if it could please leave my sweet, sweet upside pitchers alone. DeJesus said back to me, "Yes, can you please untape this thing from my head now?" DeJesus spoke to me! Too bad I didn't do this prior to [player]Yordano Ventura[/player] going out and getting rocked (2 2/3 IP, 5 ER) and then complaining after the game of elbow discomfort. Dah! As we know by now, no pitchers get away with elbow discomfort without a DL stint. The MRI will either lead him to a 15-day DL stint or a 12-18 month one. Lowercase yay. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
There are so many Tommy Boy quotes that I can manipulate to start this post, so you choose which one...
a) I can get a good look at Luck by sticking my head up BABIP’s a**, but I’d rather take xBABIP’s word for it.
b) I write fantasy baseball posts for the American working man, because that’s who I am and that’s who I care about.
c) You: “[player]Prince Fielder[/player], Hmmmm, he should get better."
Me: “This guy is batting .231, which is actually backed up because of the gross groundball rate (11+% jump) and hitting into the shift with a sense of urgency, and all you can say is, Hmmmm, he should get better?”
d) The season is drivin' along, la-de-da, woo. And you have [player]Justin Morneau[/player] batting .338. And then you look at your team. Tires go EEEEEEEEE! Whoa, that was close.
Now let's see what happens if you have Prince Fielder on your team… You're drivin' along, Tires go EEEEEEEE! I CAN'T STOP! "Oh my God, I'm burning alive! And this isn't a fire sale! No! I can't feel my legs!" Here comes the meat wagon. And the medic gets out and says, "Oh my God". New guy's around the corner puking his guts out…
...Whichever quote you go with, if you own Fielder then consider yourself the new guy puking his guts out. This post is the meat wagon.
On Saturday, [player]Jon Lester[/player] threw a gem: 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 15 Ks. Such a gem that if that were a blood diamond, diplomats from Monrovia would be lined up in the streets of Liberia for a taste of that. If that were an emerald, friends of Dorothy would stand outside of Ricky Martin's hotel for weeks just for the chance he forgoes the hotel buffet and wants to eat out. If that were a ruby, it would stand outside a Dallas police station to cover any possible conspiracies and add fuel to other conspiracies. Lester has pitched spectacularly so far, and it's not a product of luck. His 10.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 are elite. Those are fantasy ace numbers. His fastball doesn't have renewed life, if anything he's lost something on it. What appears to be the biggest difference is he's almost completely abandoned his changeup and throwing his cutter a bit more. Since he's always been good for 200 innings and has had huge success before, I'm willing to say he will hold the improvements to his rates and be an extremely reliable starter. Likely in the top 15 for the year. Yeah, he looks damn good. I want some, purdy puhlease. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
One of the questions from Bernard Pivot by way of James Lipton is, "If heaven exists, what would you like to hear God say at the pearly gates?" That's easy, "Play ball!" Today, butterflies fly north for the summer, birds and bees have sex to John Fogerty's Centerfield, and Carlos Quentin is already injured. *slowly smells in a flower* Ahh...Shin-Soo Choo! Stupid allergies. With spring in the air and baseballs in mitts, we're back in the swing of things. Literally. Sadly, it's not all good news. With Opening Day comes the news that [player]Clayton Kershaw[/player] is starting the year on the DL. Aw, that makes me so sad. Wait, that's not sadness, that's happiness. Darn, my emotion detector needs recalibration. My first Sell of the year doesn't look so bad right now. I feel like Ace Ventura right after he shows up all the other cops. Yes, I have exorcised the demons! The Dodgers are saying it was precautionary and Kershaw will be back shortly. If you own him, I wouldn't sell him for fifty cents on the dollar. I'd take out my rosary beads and pray to the Patron Saint of Baseball, Ryan Church. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
You, "So, Grey, I appreciate a well-coiffed mustache as much as the next straight man, but are you trying to tell me Luis Valbuena isn't a virtual lock at 3rd base?" Crazy shizz, right? The Cubs made the right move and went with [player]Mike Olt[/player] to at least platoon at 3rd base. Here's what I kinda said in the past, "Don’t you love when New Yorkers say the expression, “I got your _____ right here!” Coming out of the right taxi driver’s mouth, it’s like a cello being played by Yo-Yo Ma. Sometimes it can get confusing when you are actually trying to tell someone you’ve located something. Like, “I got your cellphone right here!” Probably sounds like you’re being an a-hole. Well, in that vein, take a a scruffy taxi driver’s voice, throw it through two packs a cigarettes a day for 20 years and give me a little, 'I got your loyalty to Luis Valbuena right here!'" And that's me kinda quoting me! I wrote that nonsense in 2012 when he was on the Rangers and behind Michael Young. That's how long this whole Mike Olt saga has been going on. I received straight C's in math, but I'm gonna try to count Olt's post-hype hypeness. Okay, ready? Good. He's a post-post-post-post-post-post-POST-post-hype prospect. Whew. I hope I didn't put the italics 'post' where the capped 'post' was supposed to go. Olt was supposed to break out two years ago. Supposed to be a Chris Davis clone. Last year, Olt was in a backwards spiral of epic proportions. He hit .168 in 152 plate appearances at the Cubs Triple-A affiliate, but he had something wrong with his eyes. His eyes are fixed and he has other strengths. Strength being one of them. He can hit the ball a country mile (which is further than a city mile due to a lack of public transportation). He also has a decent enough glove. It's a Rawlings. It's a tanned leather. He will platoon in the early going, but, at this point, there is absolutely no reason to hold him back if he can hit. He won't put up a great average, but there is a chance here for 30 homers if he can get the at-bats. 30-homer 3rd basemen don't fall off the wagon every day, unless it's an overcrowded wagon specifically labeled, "30-Homer 3rd Basemen." Oh, and I've moved him up in my top 400. Anyway, here's what else I saw in Spring Training for fantasy baseball: