[player]Logan Morrison[/player] performed some late night heroics yesterday as he went 2-for-5 with two RBI including a walk off home run off Dan Otero in the 11th inning to beat the A's. LoMo now has three home runs and is batting .364 in the past week, and yes, of course he's trending on twitter. Trending hard. His twitter feed is blowing up like a Michael Bay film and after struggling in April he's really come alive in May. Logan's hit four of his five dingers in May, and is slashing .385/.448/1.000 (compared to .197/.238/.250 in April) with a 1.448 OPS. Yes, more please! Small sample sizes sure are fun! Based on his career norms his .238 BABIP is certainly low, but so is the 11.9 K%, however, the 37.1 hard hit percentage looks real nice. You know I can make the stats tell you whatever I want, but the fact is LoMo is a hot little potato right now. He's hit safely in every game he's played this month except one, and he's homered in four of them. Grey told you to BUY this week and he's available in most leagues. When asked about his heroic walk off homer, Logan admitted he didn't do it for the fame, the fortune, or even for the stats, he did it for the followers. So have a @CupOfLoMo with last night's hero, and pick him up if you need some power at the corner.
Here's what else happened in fantasy baseball Friday night:
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A full slate of games today has me thinking of sunny days and that everything is going to a-okay. Don't let Oscar tell you otherwise, he's a grouch that'll just slam the lid in your face. Stroll on over to Justin El-Morneau's World and take a shot against Clayton Kershaw. Normally, I would be raving non-stop about how great Kershaw is, and how I am going to start him. But, there are several reasons for me not to do that today. But, you know me, I'll still play Kershaw if the game isn't postponed due to rain. However, I will not shake my head in disbelief when the majority of DFS players don't play him. He's still pricey, he hasn't won in his last three starts, and he's pitching at the always dangerous Coors Field. Meanwhile, Mookie Betts and Marlon Byrd are a couple of my favorite picks for today. Mookie Monster has three home runs in his past three games, and with Big Byrd batting second in the Reds' lineup, he's a perfect low-priced DFS option. The Red Sox face a struggling Drew Hutchison whose allowed 12 runs on 17 hit over 8.1 IP in his last two starts for the Blue Jays. If you're looking to stack players in the early games, consider the Boston hitters. Marlon Byrd has slid into the second spot of the Cincinnati lineup, batting between leadoff hitter Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto. He's hit well over the past week, and at his price, he'll make for a nice play. Check out my other favorite picks for today.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Welcome back to another weekly review for everything that was Razzball this past week. I'm always of the opinion that every week is better than the last, but that's mostly because I know your mother. Which is apt, seeing as how tomorrow, you and I will be celebrating the fact that your mother gave birth to you, raised you, and made sure you always carried around a sweater, even when it was a sweltering 90 degrees with humidity. You know, because just in case. You mother even loves you despite taking up valuable storage space in her basement. You are her lovable storage space. DEEP. So while we take a moment this Sunday to celebrate everything your mothers have done for you, just remember, I'm here celebrating what your mothers have done for me. There. I've done it. An entire lede as one big "your mom" joke. I hereby retire.
Follow me after the jump to take a look back at what was week four AND a look forward on all things Razzball, including some player suggestions for next week, straight from Razzball’s Streamonator, Hitter-Tron, and DFSBot!
If there’s one thing I kill myself doing in DFS it’s talking myself into starting a pitcher against a decent offense and whiff on sticking with targeting the stinkers.
Tuesday, it was talking myself into Andrew Cashner because Vegas had the game at a very low number, with Cashner as a slight favorite. I ignored the data that told me that the Giants weren't terrible against RHP, especially at home and they certainly didn't strike out much to boot.
I decided the Brewers data was too early to call, so I didn't spend up to get Zach Greinke, even though the Brewers had been terrible against RHP so far and struck out plenty to justify any risk of one of the Brew Crew connecting.
Also, I ignored the numbers that were telling me Shelby Miller was a good play against the Phillies, again due to high Ks, low numbers on the road and overall and that Vegas had Miller as a heavy favorite against forgotten Chad Billingsley.
Sometimes you have to look at the numbers, trust your process and do what you have to do. It also helps to lock yourself in a closet after setting your lineups so you don't do a last minute panic switch that sends you to the poorhouse.
So what about tonight? Despite temptations to roster a personal fave, Chris Sale, on the bump against the Tigers, I am sticking to the data and going with Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole at home against the Reds. The Reds are 23rd vs. RHP this season and 27th on the road. Mix in Cole's #3 status on the SIERA charts so far and Cole is my pick at $9,500 for my SP1 Wednesday night on DraftKings.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Yesterday, Evan Gattis went 2-for-4, 3 runs, 4 RBIs with his 5th and 6th homers, while hitting four homers in the last three days. After the game, Gattis likened this streak to the five red lights in a row where the first car to stop had broken windshield wipers and Gattis had a squeegee. Adding, "Right now, I'm swinging the squeegee as good as ever. There was one guy, Non-Tall Paul, who claimed to get a six-red-light streak back in '98. Non-Tall Paul reminds me of Altuve, actually. Size-wise. Not smell-wise. He smelled of grapes. Very, very rancid grapes." Okay, Gattis! This weekend Gattis reminds us how ridiculous it was that people wanted to drop him in the first week-plus when he was striking out like Non-Tall Paul at a plus-sized model runway show. I think someone even asked me in the first two weeks if I had revised projections for Gattis. Guys and five girl readers (we have a new one! Hey, lady!), the season isn't even a month old yet. You need to trust your players. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
True story: in a 15-team league last year, I toyed with dropping Corey Kluber in April. He was being dropped in multiple leagues, most shallower than mine. If you think I'm crazy as a loon wearing a "I'm crazier than a loon" t-shirt, you have selective memory about him from last year. I decided to stick it out with Kluber and he ended up winning the Cy Young last year. This true story, of course, makes me sound even more moronic than usual. It also highlights a point, Kluber likes the cold weather about as much as a chapped nipple. Or maybe he just takes some time to get going. Either way, his Aprils have been forgettable for the last two years. This year, his April is actually better than last year's by any measure that means anything. His K-rate is up, ground balls are up (not literally), fly balls are down (literally), xFIP is way down, walks are down and his K/BB is up. You have to do some serious digging to find something that is negative for him this past month other than his ERA. His velocity is down a hair (0.5 MPH on his fastball) and his line drive rate is up (people are making better contact). Everything else is nails, and not as in Lenny "Nails" Dykstra just invested me in this mutual fund and I lost my retirement savings. There's some worry to some that Kluber threw too many innings last year. That's not a worry. He's 29 years old; a jump in IP from one year to the next is for pitchers 25 years and younger. Also, plenty of great analysis here and elsewhere has shown that jump in innings isn't the end all/be all, even if it applied, which it does not. As the weather warms up, his sensitive nips will be less dry and he'll likely have months of a sub-2 ERA. If you can buy him now, do it. Quickly! Anyway, here's some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:
You do it every day in your regular fantasy leagues when you stream hitters or pitchers and yet something holds you back at times in the DFS world. You see a matchup that is exploitable for fantasy goodness and you use it if you're in your roto league. Then you go about setting your lineups over on DraftKings, pay for Matt Harvey and Max Scherzer and move on. Where's your sense of daring there? Of all places to get a little bolder, it should be in your DFS world. Ya only got one day to be Wright or Wong and as Jigsaw would say, 'make your choice'. So with that in mind and with the obvious names already named so I don't have to talk about them later, let's move on to a good GPP play for today in Roenis Elias. First off, for those who aren't plugged in to the MLB world, this isn't a random call up for the Mariners. Roenis pitched 163 innings for the Mariners last year, finishing the year with a 3.85 ERA and a 7.86 K/9. All this to say, we're not dealing with a random spot call up. The kid has major league ability and against an Astros team that Ks 24.2% of the time against LHP, you could have a cheap 7 to 8 Ks today. Wanna spend up for the big two instead? Be my guest but on a slate featuring 28 pitchers, I'm looking for the arms that'll give me room to get bats that'll put me over the top. And with a lede out of the way, lets turn to other hot takes for the May 1st DK slate...
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Imagine Gangsta Gangsta's Ice Cube singing, "With a right left, right left you toothless, and then you say goddamn they ruthless," but not coming out of Ice Cube's mouth, but out of Glass Joe's mouth from Mike Tyson's Punch Out. Imagine Mola Ram reaching into a chest and ripping out a heart. Only instead of Mola Ram, it's Arvid from Head of the Class. Imagine the head Neo-Nazi from Oz, walking into your shower, only instead of him it's the guy from the Farmers Insurance commercials...Oh, wait, that's the same guy. Those were the sort of visions Chris Sale must've been having when he looked at the Twins. We see nerds, he sees Ice Mola Cube Ram Nazis. The Twins scored eight runs on him in three innings and, without looking at a box score, you can't even imagine who did that damage. Brian Dozier? Yeah, he went 2-for-5, 2 runs, 4 RBIs and his 2nd homer. Joe Mauer? Yup, he went 3-for-5, 1 run, 2 RBIs. Eduardo Escobar? Okay, now you're cheating. You would've never guessed Eduardo Escobar. Up until two seconds ago, you thought Eduardo Escobar was Pablo's peacenik brother. Sale's ERA is up to 5.32, but that's almost entirely due to last night. If his owner is panicked, I'd look for a little sale on, um, well, you know. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
It happens all the time. You love Player A, but he's on a slate you're not playing, but you love him in a tasty matchup the next day. Not many people know about him except for sharp daily players and you're all set to roster him and count some cash. Then, disaster strikes. In that early slate, in a not-so-good matchup, the most non-profitable thing happens: He plays well. Not just well, though, but look-at-me well.
The next day you roster him anyway, hoping everyone won't be on him but there it goes, his ownership well into double digits. Player exposed, and value play ruined. Cash harder to come by.
I'll walk through an example about this phenomenon later in the article, when I highlight David Peralta, who people know but had slid back under the radar and hadn't been rostered a heck of a lot by my count lately in GPPs. That situation is no Dan Uggla situation, who came from the dead Tuesday in a DFS REVENGE game against the Braves, but Peralta should have been a solid recommendation that now looks like recency bias and chasing. Se la.
Tell me about when this happened to you in the comments area and good luck on a very top heavy pitching day.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Masahiro Tanaka hit the DL with a strained forearm. It's not related to his partially torn ulnar collateral ligament. So, here's my question? Why not just play through the forearm strain too? That's where he draws the line? It's like, "I was fine sleeping with my wife's sister, and having a baby with her that no one knows about, and plotting to kill my wife on a weekend jaunt to Mexico, but I will not jaywalk. Those people in New York are crazy!" You have nothing to lose, Tanaka, get in there and shank someone in the yard and Hacky Sack the ball to the plate! The Yankees haven't announced how long Tanaka will be out, but maybe they'll try to sneak in Tommy John surgery while he's sleeping. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
I’ve heard many a person say something along the lines of “Daily fantasy baseball is such a crap shoot, it’s such a small sample, there’s no way you can win”. To these negative Nellys I say, “must be the money”. No wait, that wasn’t it, “it’s getting hot in herre”. Nope, oh right, here it is, I present them with the old poker counter argument, why then are the same people at the top of the leaderboards on a routine basis? Just like with poker, if it’s all luck, why do the same players routinely make final tables? Is there luck involved? Of course! But I will argue over and over that if you have a good process, you’ll be a winner in the long run. This is where the importance of bankroll management comes into play. You have to manage well enough that you can allow yourself time to be sure your process is a good one without going broke. A week long losing streak will happen and it sucks, but it doesn’t prove your process is bad. A general tip is to use 5-10% of your bankroll a night. In addition, don’t blow that 10% on GPPs. Just like with the stock market, you have to diversify. If you stick to 10% and play generally low risk options while sprinkling in the occasional GPP and you go broke, then I’d say it’s time to reevaluate your strategy and player evaluation methods. However, if your process is sound and your bankroll management and game choices are smart, you’ll be a winner over the course of the season. Will it be a grind? Yes. Will it be glamorous and you’ll win a hundred grand your first week? Doubtful. You just gotta have the heart of a champion. Now, let’s shake ya tailfeather down below to some player picks for today’s slate.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
If you remember (no problems if you don't, since I don't remember at all... alcohol folks), last week, I went over the generic "this is April" schtick that many fantasy players love to hate. But it's true! It is, in fact, April. But to other meaning, it's still way too early to come away with any profound conclusions. True, a whole week has passed by, a whole week I tell ya! But I'm going to tell you the same thing... and that is the Phillies and Twins are still terrible. Honestly though, don't throw away Gregory Polanco. Give Shin-soo Choo a chance! (Eh, maybe.) Try not to sell high on Joey Votto... (health is a big deal, whowuddathunk?) Again, I'm probably repeating myself, but just try and stay calm. It's going to be okay. Unless you're Mark Melancon. Then yeah... you're toast. (Hopefully French toast. Because French Toast is Best Toast. Coincidentally, that's my team's name in the popular e-Sport of DotA 2. Because I only deal in facts. Also, my pocket protector says hello. We will also be playing in our first tournament starting on this Sunday, so wish us luck!) Anyhow, follow me after the jump to take a look back at what was week three AND a look forward on all things Razzball, including some player suggestions for next week, straight from Razzball’s Streamonator, Hitter-Tron, and DFSBot!