As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we're looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn't allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.
Let's start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.
Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I'm excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.
Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):
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Getting STATy With It: Potential Homerun Decliners (and Improvers)
July 5, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 21 Commentsby: Dano
Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:
Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).
Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.
The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.
Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.
Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):
This Guy Pearce Forgot Who He Was, Giving Out Mementos
July 1, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 683 Commentsby: Grey
Wanna really mess with your brain? Think about how you could have the same thing as Guy Pearce in Memento and you would never know. Okay, don't think about it too long, it'll mess with your brain too much and then I'm gonna get sued by your loved ones. "Judge, Grey Albright, Fantasy Master Lothario (don't abbreviate it), told my darling boy, Josh, to think about how he could have a brain dysfunction and now I have to change his diaper and order in for Chinese food every fifteen minutes because he keeps forgetting he just ate." That's your momma in front of the judge, suing me. Steve Pearce is a thirty-one-year-old journeyman. That's not a cartographer, that's a guy who isn't very good and just travels around offering his services for all-you-can-drink Gatorade. Yes, he hit two homers yesterday and has hit 9 homers in just two months while batting .336. This isn't a matter of "Maybe he's breaking out now." No, there's no breaking out for Steve Pearce. He doesn't even sound right if you don't say his full name. There's no Steve and no Pearce. There's only Steve Pearce and he's the hottest schmotato in the land and is worth picking up while he's swinging a hot bat, but I wouldn't expect it to last that long. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Decline And Fall Of The Romo SAGNOFpire
June 30, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 735 Commentsby: Grey
As many of you know, Bruce Bochy has the biggest head in the major leagues. As a player, when he was traded, he would have to take his helmet with him to his new club because the new team wouldn't have a helmet big enough for him. It made traveling easier, since everything he needed would fit inside the helmet. We all know the story about how when Giants rookie, Joe Panik, was called up, he forgot to make arrangements to stay somewhere in the San Fran area, so he draped a sheet over Bochy's cap and slept in there. Lots of good has come of Bochy's giant melon. Of course, the 27-pound bowling ball has its drawbacks. Like when he went to see Toy Story and blocked half the audience. Lots of angry parents that day. Or the time he was in South Dakota and people starting climbing up his side thinking he was Mount Rushmore. Sometimes what would take a person with a normal-sized head a week or two to figure out, thoughts bounce around in Bochy's Metrodome much longer. So when Sergio Romo wasn't good for the month of May, then again in June, it took longer for Bochy to realize a change was needed, but he finally figured it out. Bochy said Santiago Casilla would replace Romo, then he banged the side of his head for 15 minutes waiting for another thought, and finally it came out that Jeremy Affeldt would see some situational saves, as long as Gilbert Gottfried isn't introducing Affeldt at games. Yesterday, Affeldt got hit, and Casilla looked solid as he has all year. I'd grab Casilla in all leagues if you're SAGNOF'ing around for saves. Hopefully, even if Bochy thinks about putting Romo back in the role, it takes a few weeks for that thought to land in the right spot in his cavernous whale head. Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Well, you should be sorry, Ronald Belisario. You have been pretty rough on your owners since stepping into the closer role, testing the limits of SAGNOF and just how much pain a fantasy owner will endure to capture those elusive saves. Belisario was at it again last night and gave up three hits and two runs to the Blue Jays, recording just one out before being removed from the game. In just 12 innings pitched since inheriting the job, Ronny has surrendered 10 ER on 20 hits with three blown saves in in that time. More like RonaldO-No! Hey, a World Cup pun, how topical. In Belisario's defense, he did manage eight saves during his stay as closer, but that's more a testament to Manager Robin Ventura sticking with him this long. Well, Ventura has had enough. Alrighty then, Ventura, who's your closer now? Jake Petricka finished out the game last night and notched his second save of the season. Petricka has a 2.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the year and looks like the most likely choice to take over the closer role. Javy Guerra, Zach Putnam and Daniel Webb could also be names to watch and see chances were the Sox to go to a committee. Whatever the case, Ronald is out. And although he may not apologize for killing your ratios over the past month, you can drop him now, which is definitely something you won't have to feel sorry about.
Or is it Jean a buy quoi? Voulez-vous coucher avec moi Segura? Mmm hmmm gotcha gotcha Segura da da? A little help! I'm stuck in a Moulin Rouge-inspired snow globe and I can't get out! For those of you that don't speak French, but do speak fourteen-year-old text: Jean Seg-U-R-A Buy! Jean Segura has done a lot of bleh with a side of roasted yawnuts. "I see you sitting there on my team and I wonder if I wouldn't be better with Asdrubal, at least his name makes me giggle," that's you wearing a beret, listening to jazz. I hear ya on Segura; he's been a bore to own. The good news (if you don't own him) is he has been a bore to own, so you could acquire him for next to nothing. Right now, he's on pace for 8 HRs, 30 steals and a .260 average with 74 runs and 49 RBIs. Last year, when he broke out, he had 12 steals and 44 steals and a .294 average with 74 runs and 49 RBIs. So, he's off on average and steals, the rest is negligible. Well, I'd go as far as to say it's all a negligible difference. If he were to hit for a better average by getting maybe three extra hits a week, wouldn't his steals go up and his counting stats? Rhetorical! So, is he capable of a better average? Certainly. Or sointly, if you're reading this in a Curly voice. He's fast -- no shock there -- so a .300+ BABIP wouldn't be a stretch, and right now it's below .280. If his luck just neutralizes, he'll hit for a better average. It's not like his strikeouts have gone up -- they've actually gone down. It's not he's not making solid contact -- his line drive percentage has gone up too. He's hitting more ground balls and they're getting caught. I wouldn't trade the farm, but I'd definitely look to see if I could acquire him. Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
Deep Impact: AA Dynasty League Warm Bodies with “IBS”
June 10, 2014 | Deep Leagues | 4 Commentsby: Dano
…And by "IBS", I don’t mean irritable bowel syndrome. In this context, I mean BABIP verified by ISO and Spd scores. Two things induce my real life IBS: nutrition, and my high impact dynasty leagues. Consider this series your dynasty IBS treatment.
BABIP has little face, so I use ISO (isolated slugging) and Spd (FG’s speed score) to verify the BABIP.
Check out Part 1 of this series where I delved into Trois-A assets. While [player]Joc Pederson[/player] and [player]Gregory Polanco[/player] naturally lead the rankings in conjunction with Quad-A guys like [player]Andrew Brown[/player] and [player]Chris Dickerson[/player], I pointed to some translatable future impact in [player]Chris Taylor[/player] and [player]Domingo Santana[/player], among others.
I already went over my Danny Santana fantasy three weeks ago. But forget SAGNOF, [player]Daniel Santana[/player] was an offensive machine this weekend! Leading off for the Twins on Saturday, the 23-year-old went 4-for-5 with a double, five runs batted in, and his fourth steal of the season. Need more? He's eligible as a shortstop and an outfielder. His defense hasn't been all that great in the outfield, but he could continue to see reps at both center and shortstop even when Morales is ready to DH. Santana is now 4-for-4 in stolen base attempts in just 72 plate appearances. He's also hitting .373 with a .408 on base percentage. While it won't last, he's worth a look while he's hot if you need a short-term spark. He'll face the Blue Jays and the Tigers this week. Both teams are in the top ten in baseball for stolen bases allowed... we call that a green light special.
Jam It or Cram It: WillingJam or WillingCram?
June 8, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 125 Commentsby: The Guru
With a quarter season of jamming and cramming behind us, it may be time to start taking some serious inventory. No, not a fearless moral inventory, that’s 12-step talk and I ain’t no quitter – just ask my liver. I’m talking about taking an honest look at where your team is good and where it absolutely sucks donkey dongs*. We have enough data behind us now that we know [player]Matt Kemp[/player] is actually Milton Bradley in disguise, [player]Billy Butler[/player] needs a mansiere (It’s called The Bro!), [player]Jedd Gyorko[/player] is more myth than man (and mercifully on the DL), [player]Troy Tulowitzki[/player] is really good at baseball, and [player]Nelson Cruz[/player] can hit a ball a long way with or without his juice. Now I’m not saying to go and blow up your team and drop [player]Dustin Pedroia [/player] because he has just two more homers than the late Johnny Pesky this year. What your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru is pulling on your coat about here is that it’s time to drop the dead weight wasting away on your bench for some fresh meat that could save your fantasy season. I’ve played this fake game long enough to know that we have about two weeks to go until disgruntled owners completely abandon their teams for fantasy Cricket which cuts down on our trade options, but increases our chances of moving up the leader board. It was around this time last year that I bailed on [player]Josh Rutledge[/player] and [player]Jason Heyward[/player] for [player]Jean Segura[/player] and [player]Dominic Brown[/player]. I eventually traded them off for [player]Ian Desmond[/player] and [player]Hunter Pence[/player]. That worked, and all the cash and glory (and glory holes) were mine. Let’s scour the waiver wire for players owned 50% or less in most leagues and see if we can discover some riches for our bankrupt roster. It’s time to jam it or cram it.
*Donkey dongs is a technical sabermetric term taught at Mathew Berry’s Fantasy Baseball College for the Criminally Insane.
Lineup Maximizer: Kiermaier Has a Way
June 8, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 16 Commentsby: paul
On Tuesday, the Gods befriended my plans, making the only effect of scattered thunderstorms in the New York area a simple hour rain delay in the Yanks-A's game. After that, it was a beautiful night for baseball. What began as an unexciting, low-scoring affair, ended in a thrilling come-from-behind, extra-inning A's victory. Before the game, I was most looking forward to groovin' to Josh Reddick's walkup song "Careless Whisper", and embarrassingly, it wasn't until I was sitting in my seat and saw the lineups posted on the scoreboard that I remembered he was on the DL. No slow-dancing for me tonight.
I highly encourage everyone to watch the full MLB video I linked to above about, what was at that time, Reddick's new walk-up jam. For those of you who need the quick fix, here's the payoff of the video.
From the professionalism of his attire, you get the sense he's really letting loose in the moment. And then as soon as the music stops, his demeanor flashes instantly back to his normal stodgy self. This is purely speculation on my part, a modern version of the people-watch-and-invent-stories-of-their-lives game that can make any trip to a metropolitan area more interesting.
Anyhoo! Let's get down to business with regards to Monday's games...
Lineup Maximizer: Stop Dickerson Around
June 4, 2014 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 47 Commentsby: paul
I said in my last post I wanted to start off my articles with small discussions about this common game we play that bonds us. The people demanded, I deliver. Today, I want to talk about awareness. Being an aware fantasy manager. This means having some sense of what’s going on in your league, how the other managers are operating and how your general strategy compares.
Some of you, I'd bet, run your team like a horse wearing blinders during a race. While not always bad in horseracing, I would say this is decidedly a bad thing for a fantasy baseballer with title aspirations. This is because how you should optimally run your team is directly affected by how others are running theirs.
Right now, right this very instant, I encourage you to check out every roster in your league if you haven’t recently. At least the competitive ones. Indulge in a passing glance. I guarantee you’ll learn something that you will find interesting and in some way help you make better lineup decisions.
DraftKings – Josh Dongaldson Is The Bringer Of Rain
June 4, 2014 | DraftKings | 44 Commentsby: The Guru
As I look over my rosters for the year on DraftKings, the team I’ve won the most cash with is the Oakland A’s. The combination of [player]Brandon Moss[/player] (who had two homers last night), [player]John Jaso[/player], [player]Derek Norris[/player], [player]Yoenis Cespedes[/player] and even [player]Josh Reddick[/player] have made bank for me all season. However, the player I’ve targeted most often is [player]Josh Donaldson[/player] – especially against left-handers. Dongaldson has 15 jacks on the year and six of those have come off lefties in just 24 games. Guess who King Dong is facing today? The southpaw of suckitude known as [player]Vidal Nuno[/player]. Stack them A’s and make sure the Bringer of Rain (as he calls himself on Twitter) is on your team – he’s your Guru’s dong of the day. *note to self: Buy Dong of the Day domain name, sell it to Brazzers, make millions, spend it all on DraftKings and expensive scotch, get liver transplant*
If you’re a DraftKing shark feel free to skip this section and get right to the lineup. If you’re a newbie to DFS play, here are your humble-but-nonetheless-handsome Guru’s top 5 tips for building your bankroll. 1) Don't wing it. Only play if you have time to do the research. Your friends here at Razzball make that pretty easy with the DFSBot and the Razzball Hotsheet. And, if you follow me on the tweet machine, I do tweet out roster 411’s and weather updates – give me a follow. 2) Don’t blow all your bankroll in a day. Ha! I know it looks enticing to stick your “optimal lineup” into 45 contests hoping to win billions. However, as a rule, most sharks will tell you never wager more than 10% of your bankroll. 3) If you’re really new to the game, experiment with lineups and enter them into all the free contests that the fine folks at DraftKings has to offer. You won’t win cash, but bragging rights and experience go a long way towards future riches. 4) Ok, here’s one I learned the hard way: Trust your instincts. Sure, it’s not very scientific, but gut instincts are usually based in some sort of knowledge (if you’ve done your research). I can’t tell you how many times I’ve bailed on a guy at the last minute just to have him go off. I did it last night when I faded Brandon Moss for Justin Morneau when the rain in NYC scared me off. Moss hit two homers. 5) Don’t get stressed by a cold streak – Sky, get your head out of the oven! We all go through cold streaks. If you hit one, play cheaper games or free rolls and remember DFS is for “entertainment" purposes only. Ha!
With all the said, let’s get to the plays of the day. I’ll offer up some big names and some values plays. Let’s make it rain.