Well here we are, it’s the final Top 100 before the All-Star Break. It’s been quite the ordeal trying to keep tabs on every starting pitcher in baseball, but I look forward to writing this every week and I hope you enjoy reading it as well. It’s a bit of a wonky weeky with some players temporarily optioned to Triple-A over the break like Freddy Peralta and Shane Bieber. They’ll be back though, so I left them on the list. Unfortunately, Garrett Richards won’t be back, as he’ll go under the knife for Tommy John surgery. On the bright side we got Thor back, along with a couple of other less impactful arms like Trevor Cahill, Masahiro Tanaka, and Brent Suter. We lost Junior Guerra to the DL with a mysterious forearm injury, which is more worrisome than wearing white pants the day after hot chili night. No word yet on how Senior Guerra is taking the news. Enjoy the All-Star Break, everyone!

 

The Risers

  • Dallas Keuchel, HOU (+13) – Not all that long ago I wrote about Keuchel in a negative light. Boy has he showed me. He’s been awesome over his last six starts, save one blow-up against the Jays. Over that span he’s tossed 37.1 innings with a 2.17 ERA thanks to a vintage Keuchel style 20.8% hard contact rate allowed. That is elite, and it’s how he finds his success when he’s rolling. He still has just a 6.5 K/9 over this stretch, so it’s still a bit of a highwire act since he doesn’t miss any bats. There’s a chance he eventually creeps back into the top 30, but there are just so many starters that pile up strikeouts these days that Keuchel has to post elite ERA’s to make up for it.
  • Andrew Heaney, LAA (+24) – I’ve spoken glowingly of Heaney in this space before, but every time I want to push him up the list he gives us a clunker. As I’m writing this he’s looking pretty good against a tough Dodgers team, so I’m hoping I don’t jinx him. He’s been terrific over his last two starts, with back-to-back 7-inning, 10-K performances. He misses enough bats (12% swinging strike rate) to maintain around a K per 9, and his control is (and always has been) very good. You don’t have to be as smart as Mr. Feeny…to add Andrew Heaney.
  • Tyler Anderson, COL (+18) – It’s hard for any Rockies pitcher this side of Jon Gray to emerge from the murky depths of the Top 100, or even exist on the list at all for that matter. Anderson continues to impress however, and he deserves to see the light. I moved him up into the back end of the mixed league streamer territory thanks to just one earned run with a 24:7 K:BB ratio over his last three starts. Two of those starts were even in Coors. I’m not sure how much higher I’ll go with him any time soon though, since even as I’m considering a stream for his next start at home against Seattle, I’m wary.

 

The Fallers

  • J.A. Happ, TOR (-6) – By the numbers I should have written up Luis Castillo here, who I’ve lost all faith in (finally) and dropped 23 spots. However, there isn’t much left to say on him, and I haven’t really talked about Happ so here we are. Happ only dropped six spots, but he’s been pretty bad over his last five starts. His numbers aren’t as bad as they could be since all five of the runs he allowed against Boston in his last start were unearned. Still, he’s got a 6.84 ERA/1.59 WHIP over 26.1 innings in those five starts. I’m not overly concerned though; his K:BB has been fine at 27:10, and he’s only allowed a 31% hard contact rate. He’s been bit by the long ball, with a 19.4% HR/FB rate, which can happen when you’ve got the Braves, Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros over that span. It might be a good time to buy low.
  • Michael Fulmer, DET (-12) – The only thing you’re full of, Michael, is ****!! Alright, I’m gonna try to keep this civil and not go into a rage as a pretty big Michael Fulmer fan. I can’t help but think there is a lot more in Fulmer’s arm than what he’s shown, but after his recent beating from the Astros I’m wondering if we ever see it this season. His ERA now sits at 4.50, and he doesn’t make up for the crazy high 39% hard contact allowed by missing any bats. His changeup just hasn’t been there for him this season, and I can’t help but think that if/when he can get it back, he’ll get back to being a solid #3 starter. Whether that’s next week or next year, your guess is as good as mine.
  • Cole Hamels, TEX (-12) – Right around the time I was excited for a two-start week of his, he turned into mushy stinky doodoo and hasn’t yet recovered. He’s got a cool 9.53 ERA/1.88 WHIP over his last four starts, and unlike with Happ, Hamels’s matchups have been gravy. He’s pitched against the White Sox, Padres, Tigers, and Orioles, each of which can usually be considered a tame opponent. Even if you normalize the 23.1% HR/FB rate, he’s still allowed 36% hard contact and 25% line drives over that span. The K:BB is still there at 17:4, and he isn’t completely useless yet like this span indicates, but if you can’t even trust him in cupcake matchups, he’s hard to use in standard mixers.

 

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Rank Name Prev Rank
1 Max Scherzer 1
2 Chris Sale 2
3 Corey Kluber 3
4 Luis Severino 4
5 Clayton Kershaw 5
6 Justin Verlander 6
7 Jacob DeGrom 7
8 Gerrit Cole 8
9 Trevor Bauer 9
10 Aaron Nola 11
11 Noah Syndergaard N/A
12 Blake Snell 12
13 Zack Greinke 13
14 Jose Berrios 14
15 Madison Bumgarner 15
16 Carlos Carrasco 16
17 Charlie Morton 17
18 Patrick Corbin 18
19 Lance McCullers 19
20 Ross Stripling 22
21 Alex Wood 20
22 Tyler Skaggs 24
23 Carlos Martinez 21
24 Robbie Ray 25
25 Jack Flaherty 27
26 Miles Mikolas 28
27 Johnny Cueto 26
28 Mike Clevinger 29
29 J.A. Happ 23
30 Eduardo Rodriguez 30
31 Rick Porcello 31
32 Mike Foltynewicz 32
33 Chris Archer 33
34 Sean Newcomb 34
35 David Price 35
36 Shane Bieber 38
37 Sean Manaea 36
38 Zach Eflin 37
39 Kenta Maeda 39
40 Tyson Ross 41
41 Dallas Keuchel 54
42 Walker Buehler 43
43 Dylan Bundy 40
44 Nick Pivetta 42
45 Carlos Rodon 44
46 Jordan Zimmermann 61
47 Andrew Heaney 71
48 Jon Lester 45
49 Kyle Freeland 48
50 Kyle Gibson 52
51 Freddy Peralta 46
52 CC Sabathia 49
53 Jose Quintana 50
54 Gio Gonzalez 51
55 Jake Arrieta 55
56 Vince Velasquez N/A
57 Steven Matz 57
58 Marco Gonzales 47
59 Kyle Hendricks 67
60 Dereck Rodriguez 66
61 Jameson Taillon 58
62 Joey Lucchesi 59
63 Mike Minor 60
64 Trevor Cahill N/A
65 Michael Fulmer 53
66 Zack Wheeler 62
67 Joe Musgrove 65
68 Wade LeBlanc 64
69 Nick Kingham 73
70 Nathan Eovaldi 69
71 Masahiro Tanaka N/A
72 Rich Hill 78
73 Tyler Anderson 91
74 Kevin Gausman 68
75 Mike Montgomery 74
76 Jeff Samardjiza 63
77 Jhoulys Chacin 81
78 Matt Boyd 75
79 Reynaldo Lopez 76
80 Jaime Barria 83
81 Jose Urena 79
82 Sam Gaviglio 77
83 John Gant 82
84 Cole Hamels 72
85 Luis Castillo 62
86 Mike Fiers 84
87 Brent Suter N/A
88 Zack Godley 88
89 Chase Anderson 94
90 Anibal Sanchez 86
91 Matt Harvey 100
92 Domingo German 89
93 Felix Pena 90
94 Jeremy Hellickson 92
95 Anthony DeSclafani 98
96 Ivan Nova 93
97 Andrew Suarez N/A
98 Jake Odorizzi 87
99 Lance Lynn 97
100 Tyler Mahle 95

 

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken

   
  1. AJ says:
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    Thanks, great work! With how Jon Gray looked last night in his return, where do you think you’d place him in these rankings?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @AJ: He’s so hard to rank! I guess I’d put him in at 51 behind Gibby with a shot at ascending quickly if he finally puts up numbers like his FIP suggests he should.

  2. Thurgood Congo says:
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    Donde esta James Paxton?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Thurgood Congo: Pax has ouchie back and is on the DL so he got the boot. I considered ranking him anyway since it doesn’t seem like he’ll miss much time, but backs can be tricky. He’ll slide back in around SP10 when he’s back.

  3. manormachine? says:
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    Strasburg should be back post ASB. Where would you put him?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @manormachine?: Top 12, probably bumping Snell

  4. Alex says:
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    Thoughts on where ryu will be ranked when he comes off DL?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Alex: I think he’s still several weeks away, but whenever he returns he’ll probably slot in around SP55-60.

  5. Marco Aurélio Corrêa Cordeiro da Silva says:
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    Do we still back Mr Pivetta? I still own him.
    And do I trade Chase Anderson for Musgrove or Gant? If yes, which one is better?

  6. Simsbad says:
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    What about Sony Gray? Should he be favored in a matchup against the Mets?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Simsbad: Sonny Gray wouldn’t be favored in a matchup with the Montgomery Biscuits right now.

      • Simsbad says:
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        @Dokken: As an Alabamian, I’m offended. As a baseball fan who can’t fathom Tampa Bay’s winning ways, I’d like to see him try.

        • Dokken

          Dokken says:
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          @Simsbad: Hahaha

  7. Chucky says:
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    Teheran looked good at home today. More times than not the road has been his friend, not home. What kind of stream qualities does he have? Weak lineups? Home, Road? How many times teams have seen him?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Chucky: He has no stream qualities. His ERA on the road is 3.86, with a 5.45 FIP and no real difference in his K:BB ratio. He’s just a flat no for me in any matchup.

  8. Alex says:
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    Would you pick up Heaney over L. Weaver? Weaver has looked much better his last few starts and the upside has still got to be there. Only $19 dollars remaining for the season.

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Alex: I would if you don’t have to spend up for him.

  9. brian says:
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    where is steven strasburg ?
    starting first game after break

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @brian: He’ll probably be top 12 next week if he looks ok in his return.

  10. Blake says:
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    I have 5 pickups for the rest of the season. I am in a pts league (15pts for W, 7pts for S, 1pt for SO).

    My pitching staff:

    P: L Serevino
    P: S Manea
    P: R lopez
    P: C Archer
    P. J Gray
    P: J Musgrove
    P: B Hand

    B: M Estrada
    B: J odorizzi

    DL: S Miller
    DL: Yu Darvish

    basically darvish and archer are killing me! Cahill, Gibson, rodon and Harvey are available. Would you pick any of those up? if so, who? u have Rodon ranked highly but he has been all over the place the last couple of years

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Blake: Five moves, good lord. Hard to pull the trigger in that scenario unless there’s a real need. I’d much rather have Gibson or Rodon (esp Rodon, I’m a fan) the rest of the way than Estrada, but I might save my moves in your instance just in case I need injury fillers elsewhere. I’d hate to get stuck taking zeroes somewhere because I ran out of moves.

  11. Alex says:
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    If I wanted to package Newcomb and Quintana for a SP who would be a good target?

    • Dokken

      Dokken says:
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      @Alex: I’d target a top 20 guy like Corbin or Stripling.

Comments are closed.