If you’re at all familiar with management theory, then you’re probably aware generally of the “Peter Principle”. The concept is simple, managers rise to the level of their incompetence. Here’s where you think about your current manager, and snicker. Are you done? Okay, so it’s concept that many of us can relate to, some of us first hand. But what does this have to do with the subject of today’s profile Marlins starter Dillon Peters? Ahhh, his name is Peters? It works right? But perhaps there’s more there. Or maybe I’m overthinking. Yeah, totally overthinking it. Then again, is it possible that Peters has risen to his own level of potential incompetence here in the Bigs? His numbers over the last two years in the minors have been phenomenal, rarely letting up multiple earned runs in a game. In fact over the last two years, across 37 starts between high A and AA, Peters has amassed a 21-9 record with a 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .224 BAA, 7.5 K/9, and 1.74 Bb/9. While allowing just 5 balls to leave the park in 191.2 innings. So to say he’s on a great run the last few years is an understatement. Will that continue here in the majors or is he due for a heavy regression? Through Peters first few starts he’s been solid but lucky. I actually intended to profile his start last Tuesday at Philadelphia, but pivoted to Sunday’s turn for the rescheduled home game vs the Brew Crew. I figured in case things went awry in Milwaukee recency bias would win out. Here’s what I saw.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, on the last day of his H2H playoffs, Flavor Flav’s fantasy baseball team, “Yeah Boyd!!!” had a day to remember. Fun fact! Flavor Flav also plays fantasy baeball, drafting Hoopz, New York and Pumkin in the first round was the way to go, so surprising to see him take Brandi, who wasn’t even in Flavor of Love but on Rock of Love. Rookie mistake! Or maybe I should say roofie mistake. So, yesterday, Matt Boyd went 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 5 Ks, ERA at 5.33, losing his no-hitter with two outs in the 9th inning. He throws a handful of pitches, literally. Five in total: fastball (92 MPH), cutter, slider (slutter?), change and curve. His arsenal is nothing to boot (footy pun!). Of course, five pitches that are all garbage isn’t exactly the meow’s cat. As of yesterday, only his curve was a plus pitch. He is only 26 years old, so maybe a 5.00 xFIP doesn’t give the whole picture/pitcher (stutterer!). Of course, at this time of the year, only his next start matters, and the Stream-o-Nator actually has it as the smallest of positives. So, you got it, Flav, “Yeah, Boyd!!!” Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
So, where does Mookie Betts go in 2018? That’s what we all want to know, right? That and WHAT TIME IS IT?! Sorry, was listening to Steppin’ To The A.M. I was not listening to Time to Get Ill, however, because I don’t like the Beastie Boys, but it might be more appropriate with The Bettsie Boy, Mookie. Home run distance is a weird thing. Well, maybe not weird, but hard to trust. Yeah, that’s the ticket, said like that Jon Lovitz character. In hindsight, it’s obvious. Mookie had so many Just Enough home runs last year, of course, he’s not hitting as many this year, but I thought there would be enough mitigating factors to lessen Betts’ drop off. He’s young — power still peaking; he’s in a good park — Pesky/Wall; the lineup — oh, that lineup. Didn’t play out that way for power and average. His average is nearly fifty points off of last year, and his power will end likely down about five homers from last year. Not huge? Well, that is around a 15% drop — even after his big game yesterday of 3-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 20th and 21st homer. So, what does all this mean for next year? I think he’s going to be undervalued, and I expect a bounce back of sorts. Likely closer to a 27-homer guy than his 30+ last year, but there’s no way he hits near-.265 as he is right now. He’s hitting as many line drives as last year, hitting the ball harder, in general, and a .267 BABIP. He’s gotta be one of the unluckiest hitters this year. He’s basically hitting line drives up the middle, but a squirrel is knocking it down into a fielder’s glove. Maybe he’s not Mookie Best this year, but I’m not counting out Mookie Ballgame yet. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
To anyone from Southeastern Massachusetts my title means something to you. If you’re anything like me it signifies the first time in your life you were severely disappointed. I can still remember packing into my parent’s station wagon with another family my parents were friendly with. We were headed to the “World Famous King Richard’s Faire“. Six year old Ralph couldn’t believe I was headed to THE fair of THE King Richard. I mean he was the best king ever, and here I am headed to his fair! Me, lowly 6 year old Ralph with a golden bowl cut! Welp, much like everything else in life since, it was a massive disappointment. What was supposed to be a day of jousts, knights, kings and princesses, quickly turned into reality. That reality was drunk bikers with swords, mutton, and the inescapable smell of feces and urine. The strangest part is it smelt just as much like urine as it did poop. It was as if the two smells were competing for dominance, each pushing itself to it’s limits but neither overtaking the other. Needless to say I never went back. I could have, but I did better things with my time like drinking or masturbating. What does this have to do with Garrett Richards and his most recent start? Well let’s just say I was excited, only to be disappointed. That’s my big market tease, trust me you’re bound to be disappointed…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Ariel Miranda pitched a no-hitter yesterday through six innings and 112 pitches that had to be the worst six-inning no-hitter in baseball history. Shame the M’s removed him before he gave up a hit, because this could’ve been an epic debacle — depicacle? Remember those Hall of Shame books from the 1980’s that always featured at least one anecdote about Steve Lyons? Usually that anecdote was of him undressing at first base. Somehow that largely visual gag was depicted in literary prose in these books. If they still had those books, Ariel Miranda’s six-inning no-hitter would’ve had a chapter. He went 6 IP, 1 ER, zero hits, six walks, 5 Ks, ERA at 4.72. Only thing that was missing was him taking his pants off on the mound or clowning around with Max Patkin. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Doh! A deer, a female deer and also what the Dodgers say. Ray, a drop of golden filth. Me, a name I call myself who owns J.D. Martinez and Robbie Ray. Fa, a long long way to run if a Bostonian is saying far. SO another name for strikeouts. LA is where the game took place. Ti I dribble down my face, when J.D. Martinez and Robbie Ray play. Yesterday, Ray went 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 hits, zero walks, 14 Ks, ERA down to 2.80. Robbie Ray is an ace. No matter how you slice that pecan pie, he’s an ace. No matter how you put that pancake batter on the skittle. No matter how you put whipped cream in my mouth. My God, I’m so hungry. Cougs has got me doing this Whole30 diet and I’m legit about to eat my hand. At Endorphin Ralph’s top 100 starters for this week, Ray’s ranked 6th. Can’t argue that, and last night he dunked all over the LA K’ers. Then, J.D. Martinez got my goosepimples all a-titter. He went 4-for-5, 6 RBIs with his 31st, 32nd, 33rd and 34th homer. Someone has to Just Dong, so who better than Just Dong? Who?! Sorry, I’m writing this wearing an owl costume. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
There’s an old expression in Major League Baseball, “As the sun sets on one Weaver, another rises from its ashes.” I have to say it was rather prophetic to predict the spontaneous combustion of Jered Weaver’s career. Then again, it’s not like there weren’t clear signs that we had reached the end of the line with our most recent Weaver. I mean the man was throwing 67 MPH in his last few starts, or years, but whatever… That brings me to today’s subject, our new shiny Weaver, complete with new car scent! I’m of course alluding to Cardinals rookie phenom Luke Weaver. The 24 year old right-hander got his first taste of the big leagues last year to mixed results. He looked brilliant at times, and caught too much of the plate at others. The issues with Weaver are rarely related to his pitching however. He’s had an inability to stay healthy over the course of his career, never exceeding 120 innings pitched in a season. As for the player himself he has one of the more exciting upsides of any arm in the minors, mixing swinging strikes, with weak contact, and elite control. Since his most recent callup in late August, Weaver has posted back to back starts with 10 Ks and 1 walk, while limiting his opponents to a .224 batting average against. There’s nothing I love more than digging into the start of a player I’ve been touting for a year plus. It’s even better when that player’s twitter handle (@DreamWeava7) has a Boston accent! I’m in LOVE!! Previously Weaver has ranked 48th (pre-season), and 60th in my mid-season, which is lofty praise. As anyone who reads my prospect work will tell you, I discount pitching prospects pretty heavily for fantasy purposes. Enough of the small talk, here’s what I witnessed in Weaver’s Sunday start.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hey, guys and five non-guys, Dylan Bundy has awoken my nethers. But can I “stay awoken” as the kids say? The kids don’t say that, do they? Please, I’m woke AF! Though, I am confused why kids go around abbreviating Abercrombie and Fitch. When I was a kid, we spelled out Abercrombie and Fitch and had summer songs about girls that wore Abercrombie and Fitch. LFO was AF! Yesterday, Dylan Bundy went 9 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 2 walks, 12 Ks, ERA at 3.94. An Orioles starter with an ERA under 4! It’s an early Rhystmas miracle! Drop the balloons from the ceiling, Party City! So, looking under the hood, in a non-sexual way, leaves me a little yawnstipated on Bundy. His K/9 is 7.9, BB/9 is 2.6 and a 4.73 xFIP. His velocity’s down this year, but he pitched in relief some last year, so maybe not the best gauge. For 2018, I see nothing here to be excited about, but maybe he puts together a great September, and makes like Fonzie’s horse and says nay to the negativity. I’d continue to ignore him in shallower mixed leagues or use the Stream-o-Nator. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
If there is one thing the Cincinnati Reds can do is they can mash RHP. They currently rank top 5 against RHP in wOBA and OPS and almost in the top 10 in nearly all offensive categories. A match-up tonight against Chris Flexen leads to a great stacking possibility. Flexen has been up and down in his brief rookie campaign, but he has been awful on the road. He has an ERA of 8.18 away from home and a trip to Great American Ball Park should balloon that number even further. Joey Votto (410,000), Scooter Gennett ($8,000), Scott Schebler ($7,200), Eugenio Suarez ($8,000) and Adam Duvall ($7,800) should all be able to light up the scoreboard tonight. The over under in this game is sitting at 10 runs, so a slugfest is expected.
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There’s a narrative making the rounds that today’s Pitching Profile subject Collin McHugh just started throwing a slider. This on it’s face isn’t completely true, his repertoire included a slider two years ago, but he scrapped it in 2016 in favor of a cutter. So the “throwing a slider now” people are insane, and this is open and shut case. Right, Ralphie?” Actually, their narrative is partially correct, because while he did formerly throw a slider he didn’t go back to the pitch he scrapped before last season. He’s throwing a different slider. A reworked version he picked up from clubhouse showboat Brad Peacock. Who picked the pitch up from some shoe salesman named Jordan Jankowski, who picked his up from a decoder ring at the bottom of a box of Count Chocula. Anyway, back in 2015 when McHugh experienced a break through with the Astros, he threw his “old” slider nearly 45% of the time. It’s funny that everyone forgot he threw a slider back then, considering it accounted for such a high chunk of his usage. In fact he threw his breaking pitches, (he also has a high spin-rate curveball), 67.1% of the time. Leading his 27.2% fastball usage to rank as the second lowest in the majors behind only R.A. Dickey during the 2015 season. Before 2016 began McHugh’s usage of his ineffective slider was scrapped completely for a cutter, and an increased reliance on his hook. The results didn’t change, in fact in someways they got worse, but that’s not important, and here’s why. Fast forward to 2017, and McHugh missed a majority of the season’s first half with an elbow injury. The player that has emerged since is a completely different animal. Throwing his fastball more than 50% of time, and with a new and improved low 80’s slider, one with increased movement from his former offering. The question for today, “Is this a new and improved model or just a redesigned Grand Am?” Let’s look under the hood and see.Please, blog, may I have some more?