Ooooh that smell, Can’t you smell that smell, Ooooh that smell, The smell of death surrounds you”.  If you don’t recognize this gem little by Lynyrd Skynyrd, I won’t hold it against you.  I’m sure you’re familiar with their bigger hits like, Sweet Home Alabama, Tuesday’s Gone, or the epic classic Free Bird.  If you’re still drawing a blank and those legendary songs don’t ring a bell, then you’re not a true ‘Merican!  The bad news is Chuck Norris just put you on his list because you’re not a true ‘Merican, the good news is you can use tonight’s DFS winnings to redeem yourself and convince him otherwise.  I y’all have a short memory, but if you followed my lineup from last week you would have got paid straight cash homie!  Yep, for the record I killed it last week with a total of 151.2 points, even with my featured pitcher Luis Severino scoring a paltry 2.75 points.  I banked a cool $125 off a $5 entry.  I’m not bragging by any means, but it just goes to show that you can take your coffee money and turn it into some walking around money.  If you made it all the through my longest intro ever, then your patience is ’bout to be rewarded with tonight’s sleeper pick: Blake Snell at $15,000.  Our featured boy, B’Locke Snell seems like he’s shaken off that undeniable odor of disappointment that tends to linger alongside most rookie pitchers.  Over his last 5 starts he’s gone 24.2 innings giving up 8 ER, to go with 22 Ks and a 2.97 ERA.  If he can get over the 5 IP hump, he could easily pick up double digit Ks vs the struggling Royals offense tonight.  Snell is due to come up smelling roses tonight.  Now let’s see who else is going to keep our winning streak going.

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Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo walk into a bar.  The bar says, “Ow.”  There should be an All-Star Game weekend festivity where Gallo, Judge and Giancarlo hit home runs and people guess how far it went, but they guess in miles.  “I’m gonna say that went 4.5 miles.”  “Ooh, sorry, there’s no such number as ‘point.’  You don’t win a house.”  Gallo doesn’t hit mammoth shots.  Mammoth shots hit home runs and say, “That was a Gallo shot.”  Have you seen one of his homers?  Picture a ball sailing about 550 feet and screaming, “Holy crap, how am I getting back home?”  Home run balls he hits call Uber after Gallo hits ’em.  So, I’m obviously a fan, and Beltre doesn’t even have a return date yet.  This might be one of those situations where Beltre is gone for another month and, even when he returns, Gallo just moves to the outfield.  It’s slightly ridiculous he’s available in so many leagues, and I’d remedy that.  Immediatemente.  That’s immediately in Spanish.  I did take 13 years of Spanish, after all.  You’re gracias.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Before we jump right into this draft recap, let’s go over a little bit of background about the league and its details. This isn’t like the typical RCL 5×5 rotisserie league we often talk about in this space. LOEG is a 10×10 head-to-head keeper league, with 10 teams and four keepers per team from year to year. The league has been around for something like ten years and has been graced by the presence of yours truly for the past five.

Since the categories, scoring, and rules are a little different in this league I’ll break down all the details below. I think it’s important to break this down a bit first because not only do I want to bore you to death, but I want you to have all the information while you are going over the results and making fun of my team in the comments section. Anyway, here we go:

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Let the overreaction to Spring Training numbers begin! Gregory Polanco went 3-for-3 with 2 stolen bases in his debut — 115 SB prediction for Polanco! Jason Castro went 2-for-2 with a HR in his first game — 60 HR for Castro! Shelby Miller allowed 2 runs, 3 hits over 2 innings — that is actually pretty on-brand for Shelby Miller. Do not trust Shelby Miller! Health is really what you’re looking for in Spring Training and these guys are failing that test so far…

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As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.

Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.

Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Earlier this week, I posted the first six rounds of the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft. You’re never going to believe this, but I’m now going to post rounds 7-12. At the end of it all, there will be four posts and 23 total rounds. It’s a lot of work, but you guys are worth it.

Here is a quick recap of the league rules for this mock:

This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1).

As I did the last time, I’ll post the rounds below with some of my thoughts beneath the picks. I’ll keep the thoughts brief since we have a bunch of rounds to get through. That pissed off at least one commenter last time who apparently wanted more Mike Maher analysis and less Mike Maher patting himself on the back. Let’s see if I can do better this time around…

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Yesterday, I went over the top 20 catchers for 2017 fantasy baseball, and, today, you guessed it (if you didn’t read the title and just fell here from outer space), it’s the top 20 1st baseman for 2017 fantasy baseball.  Something weird happened last year — okay, a lot weird happened last year, but I’m going to focus on fantasy baseball.  Middle infield got deep and 1st base got shallow.  I have some theories why this happened.  First theory, a lot of kids who are playing now grew up watching Bret Boone and Alex Rodriguez and their frosted hair and, like a moth to a flame, or peroxide to a hairstyle, kids became middle infielders.  Second theory, it happened just cuz.  So, I don’t have a lot of theories on it, per se, but offense is deep this year, but not 1st basemen.  My projections are included, and here’s all of our fantasy baseball rankings.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball:

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Greetings, friends. I hopped over to the football side of things once last year’s baseball season ended, but now I’m back. And apparently, I am such a disturbed individual that I am doing fantasy baseball mock drafts in early January. And, I am writing about them. And, well, I just wanted to start another sentence with and because it feels so wrong but so right at the same time. Anyway, moving on.

I was fortunate enough to be invited to the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft, and we’re going to recap it here. This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1). As long as I did that math correctly, that is 23 spots.

Below, I will provide the results for the first six rounds and a give my thoughts for each round. I’ll do the same for rounds 7-12, 13-18, and 19-23 in subsequent posts. I’ll try to keep it brief. All we really care about are the results here, right? Feel free to tell me how awesome or crappy you think my team is, along with what you think were the best and worst picks of the draft or the different rounds…

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After drudging through an Andy Dufresne-type tunnel for the top 20 catchers for 2016 fantasy baseball, I find myself with a group that actually really hurt or helped your team depending on how you drafted.  If you went wrong with your 1st baseman, it could kill your season.  Hey, Prince Fielder, no hard feelings from me.  We are totally fine since I knew not to draft you.  If you went right, you might’ve won your league.  Last year, I said offense was making a comeback.  This year, I say, you prophetic son of a B, darn tootin’ offense is making a comeback.  How’d you get so handsome and wise, though not wise enough to answer a question posed by yourself?  Lots of guys on this list not only did well, but did better than their preseason projections.  Offense is in full swoon, like Our Commissioner Manfred is swooning with the guy who wrapped the baseballs a little bit tighter this year.  To recap, this final ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:

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At Stephen Strasburg‘s summer DL rental, the driveway is an inverted W and he timeshares with Ryan Zimmerman.  The Nationals said Strasburg’s elbow issue is not structural.  Yeah, it’s deconstructed like a Cobb salad at some overpriced restaurant.  I’m sure Strasburg is totally fine and it’s completely coincidental that he has a 10.19 ERA in August.  Totally unrelated, guys and five girl readers, totally unrelated.  Strasburg feels like the kind of pitcher that we can never rely on for more than 150 IP.  In five years, he’s thrown 200+ IP once and he’s 28 years old.  Oh, and ‘member how Strasburg was supposed to bounce back this year?  He currently has the worst ERA of his career.  Yeah, great.  In my fantasy team news, because who doesn’t love someone talking about their fantasy team, Strasburg hit the DL about an hour after my weekly Scout league locked.  The same league where I was in first a week ago before Strasburg went to Coors and Lackey went to the DL.  The same league where I’m now in 2nd.  The same league where I needed Strasburg to start twice this week and Lackey was set to face the Padres.  The same league that ends at the end of August.  The same league that just made me cry.  I need a tissue, you karmic bullies!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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