When does excessive SAGNOF’ing become a problem? Do you like go blind if you do it too much?  The winning number for steals is the number in question here.  Whether that be in RCL’s or your home league.  The amount of steals you think you need is based on your league.  Just telling you a number like it takes 62 steals to win a league period, end of story, would be a boring article.  So getting to that proverbial X number to win your league is that question here.  It is subjective based on league size, shape and scoring.  Leagues with smaller team numbers is obviously smaller and so on. Starting roster size plays into it as well.  So what is it enough for winning or finishing in the top-3 in your league in the steals category?  The main strategy to implore during your draft is to see who is going excessive for the steals. If a team comes out the gate and has one of the elite three (TT, Lin Miranda and Flash Jr.) you know what’s up.  After that, it is a step down in expectancy.  As those three are all projected to have 50-plus steals.  So finding a great medium for filling out your set team is important, don’t punt steals all together and don’t overpay for steals too early as they never have a face later in the draft.  So let’s see what the trick to getting you onto the podium for steals in most of your leagues…

For giggles, I will keep it in the Razz-family and tackle the RCL’s because that is the homegrown goodness and Smokey loves himself some homegrown goodness. League size is 12 teams, and there are 13 offensive starters per team.  Simple enough. The number you are shooting for is 160.  The variance is RCL’s fluctuates because getting lucky by rostering a guy when he gets steals and adds to your totals happens.  Aiming for that 160 number gives you a eight or bigger in that scoring category and we all love some big numbers.  So if you miss out on one of the bigger guns like I mentioned above getting to that number is a little harder.  Because a 50 burger from one spot alleviates the pressure from three other spots of stolen base potential.  With 13 starters and that 160 number in mind, we need 12 steals per position.  Add in Hamilton, Dee or Trea and that number dwindles to 8 per spot. That number seems like a more achievable stat when carried across the player universe when you incorporate steals from non-stealing positions like catcher and first base.  So while it is good to have a king in the steals category and decent contributors across the board , you don’t have to go crazy and kill other categories with your commitment to the one stat.

Lastly, let’s take a look at some SAGNOF trends that are whipping through Spring training and guiding our hand through draft season.

Jose Pirela – Hitting himself into a line-up.  Offers 10 plus steals appeal.  Don’t go crazy with steals expectations, but he fits into that you only need 8 steals per starting spot position I talked about.  ADP is basically in the 400’s universally and the Padres may be fun to watch for the first few months.

Eduardo Escobar – PED suspensions never happen in fantasy writing, and with good reason. But it happened in the Twin Cities.  Polanco got popped and now Escobar season begins, more of a pop-first, run-third type player but in that lineup he could have some more opportunities if he gets to bat near the bottom of the order.

David Dahl – Hates Cargo.  I honestly think we all do. he has been a steaming pile of nothing the last two years and now is stealing stolen base potential from not only Dahl but Tapia.

Scott Kingery – Just needs playing time via trade or attrition from the Cesar.  has power and speed combo.  Is being drafted 50 spots behind Hernandez right now.  With two weeks to go in ST he is just got that draft season juice that we all love in SAGNOF world.

Dustin Fowler – In possibly the best spring battle of all time it pits two name giants Dustin Fowler versus Boog Powell.  if they played there games in Hazard county and Boss Hogg was the skipper it would make for a great reality show.  Knee injury last year killed him from a fantasy point but has 15/15 potential with a free draft tag to match.

Dominic Leone – Since the ‘S’ in -AGNOF is a dual purpose denomination the save category usually gets covered on the same channel just different day.  But I wanted to point out on a Monday that Luke Gregerson pitched for only the second time and is slightly behind.  He isn’t behind in the ADP department though being drafted a full 8 rounds ahead of where Dominic the save donkey is.  Save speculation is like guessing the weather sometimes.  But from my vantage point i would rather have Leone at value than Gregerson at the draft vicinity of the elite set-up guys.

 

   
  1. OaktownSteve says:
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    Hey…always appreciate your work. Thought I’d tip you to put a pin in Mike Mayers if you haven’t already. He’s made some adjustments, had a fantastic spring. There’s some tape on him on the internet striking out the side on high fastballs 98s and 99s. An interesting watch in a fluid STL pen situation. Looks at the moment like he’s pitched his way onto the roster.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I saw you grabbed (think it was you) in NFBC… I might do that, I have to drop Carson Kelly for a flyer of some sort… Was looking at Brentz on Pitt too

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        It was me. Total lotto ticket though. You could likely do better.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I don’t know bc waivers are pretty thin

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @OaktownSteve: deep sleeper def. I just wonder if the bullpen crunch will force him to start in minors. All depends on If the Cards want a third lefty behind Lyons band Cecil with Gomber and Sheriff in the mix.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Smokey:

        What would be interesting is if he went down and closed for a month at AAA and dominated then reentered the picture when it looks unsettled in May.

        • Smokey

          Smokey says:
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          @OaktownSteve: oh totally or do they hold out the bridge and wait out the draft pick compensation for Holland.

  2. Chris D says:
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    Does DeSheilds counts as a SAGNOF?

    I’m probably covered on steals this year having Billy, Albies, Arcia, Whit, Gardner and soon to be Acuna but DeShields is out there in FA and his potential appeal remains nice. Was going to cut Brantley for him but also wondering if I should go after a guy like Devenski or Chad Green to grab a long reliever to help with extra Ks/WHIP.

    Thoughts?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
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      @Chris D: deli o desteaos shouldn’t be on waivers. I’d add him over brittle Brantley. The RP thing you can fix later as you go through season.

      • Chris D says:
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        @Smokey: that’s what I thought. Too much value in him to be sitting there. Thanks Smokey!

  3. Great stuff. In the thread too. Thanks all!

  4. RBA says:
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    Hey Smokey! Are there any guys this year with duel SP/RP eligibility that’ll be getting save opportunities? Having Iglesias last year was a huge boost for me!

    Thanks!

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