I need to come clean about something. It’s embarrassing, and I hope once I tell you you don’t judge me. This is a bit of a trust fall for me. Okay, the truth is, whenever a player breaks out, I start singing Breakout by Swing Out Sister. I put down the convertible top on my canary yellow Sebring, flipping down my sunglasses, adjusting my spandex shorts, because they ride up all the time, and Tommy Pham, fist pump, BREAKOUT!
In Triple-A, Pham had 10 homers and 20 steals in 2014, but, like some many young hitters with the Cardinals (really, only hitters; pitchers they have no problem promoting and playing), they’ll play someone like The Federalist and never give a prospect hitter an opportunity. Now that Pham’s about to turn 30 (in nine months), the Cards have finally given him playing time. There’s nothing here long-term, but he does have power, speed and, finally, the playing time, so, Swing Out Sister and BREAKOUT! And, y’all who think I don’t keep it real, Tupac would date Swing Out Sister, then send her a letter from prison, breaking it off, only to realize halfway through the letter, he shouldn’t break it off, he should BREAKOUT!
Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
I am Son. Son I am. I like green eggs and Tommy Pham (20.6% owned – increase of 9.7%). I do! I like them, Son I am. When I think of Tommy I crave for Pho (pronounced “fuh”), probably due to the fact that he’s half-Vietnamese. Duh!!! He’s hit ten home runs and stolen nine bases. Those numbers are real. You didn’t drink too many cases. The walk rate is good (11.5%) while the strikeout rate is high (25.7%). Not anything too obscene to crucify. The average is solid (.289) while the OBP is great (.381). I’m feeling the same vibe from when I listen to Warren G’s Regulate. The BABIP is high (.358) so some negative regression should take place. But not so low that I’d link The Sign by Ace of Base. The swinging strike rate is 8.8% and he only chases 20% of pitches outside the strike zone. I hear the moans. How can we clone? Mike Matheny bats him in the two-hole against both righties and lefties. That’s more valuable to me than snatching the panties. Now, he’s much better on the road than at home (.234 vs .344). Yo, Google Chrome! Shalom! Enough PaRappa the Rapper. Pham won’t be a season winner and he’s streaky, but he could be a viable fill-in. If you do pick him up and have the urge to drop him, just watch this over and over again. On a side note, Pham has a rare eye disorder called keratoconus, which thins the cornea. He started wearing contact lenses back in 2009 to be able to track the pitches better. I’m just excited for the inevitable moment when Pham is used as a guinea pig for a Terminator-like eye transplant. TREASURE
Here’s what else I saw in the most added/dropped list:
It’s the last post before the all-star break and nothing seems more fitting than a Neal Diamond reference. If you don’t like or appreciate Neal, then we have problems and I challenge you to a duel or whatever the young kids are doing now a days to show dominance. (Because I know it’s not anything like what transpired in West Side Story.) Moving on swiftly to the pressing closer news as I get lost in my ole timey spirit… So the Cardinals have moved away from the Oh and more to the Rosenthal. Trevor Rosenthal has sorta looked like he did three years ago, which seems like forever ago but really isn’t. The bad thing is that he and the rest of the save chasers that are in the Cardinals bullpen are pitching blah-squared. The best pitcher over the last 20 games is Matt Bowman… again. I said that same statement about a month into the season when Oh originally looked about as shaky as an 11-year-old with his first attempt at using a blow torch. Over the past 30 games the saves have gone Oh for 3, Rosenthal 1, Bowman 1 and Tyler Lyons with 1 (was a multiple innings save). Over the past 30 games for a usual dominant bullpen fixture, in terms of fantasy, to post 5 saves (I am not counting Lyons effort) is more condemning than the way they are pitching. If you are a Seung-Hwan Oh owner, you kinda have to hold the ship until it becomes more of an official thing. If Rosey is on your wire (55% owned in ESPN leagues) then nab him up. If you want to roster a RP with appeal, then Bowman is your guy (1.8% owned). As I can see it, Oh is still the guy but with some daylight for others. Just be leery that the past 30 days of track record for savedom have not been all that rosey for the Cards. Don’t frown, we got more goodies and sunshine after the bump. Cheers!
Happy Friday fellow DFSers! As you all likely know, Friday is the day of the biggest and best DFS contests of the week. This makes sense, it’s a full slate day with all the games pretty much starting at 7 ET (Naturally we have 2 games starting early today…WTF Philly? 6:35, really?) and it’s basically the weekend, so everyone is fake working while researching and building their DFS lineups. Hence, more action. So let’s get started with the first piece of the puzzle as we try to get our piece of that big action, starting pitcher. If you’re trying to win a GPP tournament where 100,000 of your closest friends are all trying to do the same, it helps to uncover that low owned play that scores big. It’s always nice if that play is a pitcher so you can pay up for big bats in a good match-up, especially when Coors field is on the slate. Tonight, I’m looking at James Paxton ($9,200) to be that play. Most people will go towards Max Scherzer as the “safe” bet tonight. That’s well and good but if you’re looking to differentiate yourself a bit, I’d look to Paxton instead. The Braves are actually the 4th hardest team to strikeout this year. Sure, Mad Max is an alien, but something has to give and I think his upside might be a bit limited. Paxton of course has been less alien, more Jekyl and Hyde this year. He does however, get a home date with the Oakland A’s, MLB’s 3rd most K-happy team. It would not surprise me in the least if Paxton strikes out out as many A’s in 6 IP as Scherzer does in 8 IP, at which point the Nationals closer, Matt Blake Enny Sammy Solis Albers Treinen will surely lose the win for him. So, stray from the pack a bit tonight and take a chance on Pax.
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So, this legit blew my mind. As you know, I’m busy getting my top 100 for the 2nd half ready for next week, and I was looking at our Player Rater. So, Domingo Santana? He’s top 50 on the season! No, not for outfielders. For all players! Seriously! For all hitters and pitchers. Digest that for a second. What are you swallowing? I was speaking metaphorically. What does this mean? Invest in players with home games in domestic swill parks. Rename PNC Park to Iron City Park and I want me some Jordy Mercer! Busch Stadium is the exception that proves the rule, whatever that means. This also means fantasy value is about filling out five categories. All your Miggys and Edwins are purdy, but you get a guy that hits 15 homers and steals bases, and you’re getting value. Yesterday, Domingo went 4-for-5, 3 runs, 2 RBIs with his 9th steal, as he hits .288 with 14 homers on the year. That’s how you get fantasy value. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Based on my affinity for one Andrew Benintendi, I’m starting to think players “with the good hair” might be my thing. Why do you ask? Oh, because this whole “Benny with the flow” thing is not an isolated incident. Oh no, we have Dansby Swanson, who ranked highly on my pre-season list, I wrote a pitching profile of Mike Clevinger on Monday, another brother of the flow, and now, I introduce to you one of my favorite low minors prospects Brandon Marsh of the LA Angels. (Is that their name still?) The 2016 Angels second round pick was a Georgia prep standout who hit .559 his senior season, leading Buford, his suburban Atlanta high school, to the state championship series. After signing late in the post draft period last year, Marsh was assigned to the Angels Rookie level Arizona League affiliate, where he didn’t play a game due to a back injury. Throughout the following fall, and into the spring, “under the radar” reports on Marsh’s workouts were hitting the web, and all of them were glowing. Many praising his all around tools, and potential star ceiling; it caught my attention. Scouts, cited his plus raw power, athleticism, and the long term ability to stick in centerfield. This obviously drew some over the top hyperbolic comps to Mike Trout, but when you only have 6 prospects, and one good player, they all feel like family. Then again, he did injury his thumb sliding into a base last week, a la Mike Trout. Perhaps they are related? So, what is it about “Marshie with the Good Hair” that makes me want to go all Philandering Jay-Z/Blac Chyna with Robbie’s Amex? Well, my tulip of knowledge seeking, shutup, and I’ll tell you.
Shades of Freddie Freeman… Pedro Strop might want to hire security for his home in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic because bitter Nationals fans are going to be hurling lots of huevos from Trea Turner‘sbroken wrist. Nationals fans are an interesting lot to begin with. Many of the people who attend Nationals home games are transplanted fans of other teams who are only in DC temporarily for business or pleasure. I went to a Nationals game once where a woman was reading and knitting the entire time. I don’t think she witnessed a single out. Back on track! Trea! Of course his amazing stats are only told to you AFTER he is set to miss about two months. In June he had 22 stolen bases. 22. By himself. And yes, I did list Trea as a bust in the 2017 Razzball Writers Predictions. But here’s what I wrote to Jay as justification: “Turner has skills—no doubt. But he has less than 1,000 at bats since he entered professional baseball in 2014. He is going to be this year’s Carlos Correa—drafted in Round 1 or 2 and not earning back that cost.” Steals will be there. Runs too. Everything else? Ehhhhhh. Stash or Trash: Stash. Please. Fill In: So there is no replacing 22 stolen bases in a month. But you know that, right? Hell, over the last 30 days there are only 4 players with over 10 stolen bases. So I’m going to recommend one of them: Cameron Maybin (61.9%.) This is more of a shallow league add, but he’s one of the few players that can even give you part of Trea’s stats. Maybin is always a risk to find himself in an issue of Ambulance Chasers, but right now his 24 SB and 49 runs aren’t bad.
G’day, Thursday crowd! I’m venturing beyond my usual Saturday DFS territory to bring you a brand-new series that straddles DFS and roto and, well, pretty much every category in between. Dr. Easy — my partner in fantasy baseball crime — and I will be taking a look at some differences in fantasy baseballers’ (Grey’s mom’s term) perception versus reality when it comes to the value of players, with the help of the Razzball Player Rater.
There are a few reasons for doing this. In no particular order other than the one they’re in: one, to help you out with trade targets — where to buy low and sell high (trade deadline is six weeks away, kids!). Two, to point you to some overlooked players that may even be able off the waiver wire, whether in the Razzball Commenter Leagues or others. (OKAY, let’s face it — more likely in other leagues.) Three, to highlight the value of the Player Rater — which is FREE! — and why you should be using it more than you likely are; trust me when I say that just combing through it for this post has been an enlightening experience, so much so that I want to sit cross-legged, light some incense and dust off my mantras. And four, for a little DFS action, we hope to throw you some ideas on zigging where others zag: to do well in DFS, you want to start players who are going to play well, but whom your competitors may not have thought of (e.g., if 50% of people start a player, 50% of you are going to get the same number of points for that player). Every week, we plan to look at one surprising player in each position. Feel free to hit us up with requests or questions in the comments — about specific players, trade ideas, anything you like.
Dodgers lefty Rich Hill gets an enticing matchup at home against the DBacks on Thursday, making him a valuable play on FanDuel. In his last three starts, Hill has been the dominant pitcher that we came to know last year, striking out 26 batters in 19 innings with just six walks and a 1.89 ERA. The Diamondbacks might seem like a scary opponent, but when they’re away from their home ballpark, they’ve got just a .299 wOBA, which ranks them 26th in the league. Furthermore, they struggle mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .289 wOBA against southpaws, as well as a 25.3% K-rate. So on the road against a lefty, the Diamondbacks are actually among the worst lineups in baseball. With Rich Hill pitching his ass off, $8,700 is an outstanding price for his upcoming outing. Just hope there’s no blisters.
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to theDFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through usbefore jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Origin Story Alert! In the Roppongi district of Japan, which sits between Chichibunomiya and Akabanebashi, lives a puppeteer named Goshi. For his entire life, Goshi worked in the medium of strings and miniature clothes. Sometimes, due to all the opium he smokes, he’ll forget where he left off one day and start new the next day. Due to a three-year process of forgetting and starting anew, he accidentally built a puppet that was 75-feet tall and named it Marcell Ozuna. The puppet simply went by the name, OZUNA. Elsewhere in Japan, on holiday, Giancarlo Stanton arrived with his family and me in his suitcase (how I’m able to relay the story). Giancarlo was marveled at everywhere he went, due to sheer handsomeness and size. One Japanese man said of Giancarlo, “You are like Mt. Fiji of GLOW.” OZUNA and Giancarlo remained on separate paths for many moons, until one faithful day when an explosion at a nuclear plant caused a giant lizard to emerge from the ocean. That lizard’s name was Allahzilla, because it originated in the Middle East, according to scientists. Armed with merely bats, Giancarlo (3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 22nd and 23rd homers) and OZUNA (2-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 23rd homer) beat back Allahzilla and the Cardinals while freeing all of humanity, and fantasy. Thanks, heroes! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball: