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Thought I’d take a look at a random fellow RCL manager’s draft and in-season moves to see if we could learn anything that may help us improve our own management skills.  First, a look at DRAFT DAY.  These are the SIX player positions (of the TOP TEN picks) that are still left on his team from draft day:

1 Infielder (Weren’t we supposed to target more than one on draft day?)

1 OF (Round 9; got to have at least one from Pujols, Braun, Kemp, Holliday, don’t we?)

2 SP (Isn’t pitching much more fragile than hitting?)

2 RP (SAGNOF; wow, Round 6 and Round 8; wouldn’t they have been better off with another infielder and outfielder?)

Is it possible that this team is dead last, given that they only have TWO POSITION PLAYERS left from their top ten picks on draft day?  Maybe I should have picked another team, but let’s try to glean something.

Let’s see if the players that they still will bring more clarity:








Some solid quality, but is this nearly enough to compete?

The rest that still remain from draft day:






ONE survivor from round 15 through 25?  I MUST have done better than that with my draft!

To recap, he has TEN active players and ONE DL’d left of his TWENTY-FIVE draftees.

Then they made TWO, and ONLY TWO, trades.

1.  VOTTO for LESTER (when Morales went down).

2.  STRASBURG/Kuroda for Thornton on May 1 (one month eating up an SP slot waiting to get a start).

Well, if I had Morales go down on me, I’d be happy to give Lester for Votto, while Strasburg definitely outperformed Thornton.  Does seem like our friend made pretty good use of our two trades.

But that’s a lot of roster room left over to expect from the FA list, isn’t it?

These are the names they picked up:

Chris Perez, Posey, Pagan, Torres, Axford, Crisp, Ibanez, L. Scott, Chris Johnson.  The only player with any sort of pre-season standing might be Ibanez.  Even so, some pretty productive players here.  I think every one of them appeared on my league’s FA list at some point.  I own three of them, and, at one time, owned three others.  How did he manage to collect ALL of them?  Let’s take a look:

Chris Perez – Was a no-brainer.  He picked him up before the season even started.  Of course, he had the vision to take out insurance on Wood.

Buster Posey – Was definitely on his watch list.  After Posey’s first game (3 for 4), our manager picked him up immediately.

Angel Pagan –  Was hot from May 5.  After three very good weeks, picked up on May 25.  (Pagan had an excellent second half last year.  Should have been ready to grab him seeing his early production.)

Andres Torres –  Hot from May 14; grabbed on May 31.

John Axford – First save May 23, second save May 29, added May 31.  (Hit the add key, and got “sorry, the player has been added to another team.”  Who is that guy?)

Coco Crisp – Hot for five days off the DL.  Picked up June 26; dropped July 26.  Had significant steals, but the .191 AVG was hurting more than the steals were helping.

Raul Ibanez –  Hot five days.  Big game July 9.  Picked up July 9.

Luke Scott –  Solid early season.  Hit the DL and was dropped.  Picked up July 17, two days before eligible to return.  Somebody was watching.

Chris Johnson – Hot since July 19.  Added August 2.

Yes, there were pitching moves, but way too many to list.

So, if you haven’t figured it out already, our mystery team is none other than BABY GORILLAS, presently the top-scoring team in RCL with a point total of 113.5.  My team, Simply Fred, sits at 67.  Humble we are; much to learn.

The biggest lesson so far:  There’s always hope, no matter your draft.  If BABY GORILLAS can be at record point levels carrying less than half the players he started with, with only two trades, and by picking up FA players that were available to me, there is, simply, hope for all of us.

  1. royce! says:

    Hi Fred,

    This article is instructive, but I wonder about the timing of some of the moves. Why wasn’t Posey owned well before his first game? I know he was in our RCL.

    Most of the players that seem to have made a difference for Baby Gorillas seem to have done well for a while before he picked them up. What I gather from this is that it’s a good idea to pick up players who have excelled for a week or two, and then play them until they slump. Not exactly mind-bending, but if I had followed it, I would be the proud owner of Bautista.

    And Votto for Lester? That’s a freaking steal.

    Lastly, I was checking out your league page and noticed some insane vetoed trades. What happened there? Is another key to success having collusion or idiocy in your league?

    Seriously, though, beyond picking up players that are excelling, I think that your article might highlight the need to have players who are sucking, and therefore can be dropped. So clearly the ideal situation would be for everyone you’ve drafted to do well, but that never happens. Second best seems to be to have some players who do well, some who are so-so, and some who royally suck. The worst situation is where you have a bunch of players you have high hopes for but are only playing okay, so you don’t drop em and you miss out on the newcomers.

  2. royce! says:

    And looking further into your league, how was Gorillas able to pick up Hanrahan Sept. 5? He’s the closer, someone has to own him! Same with Hensley! SAGNOF, dudes!!!

  3. Bum Juice says:

    “Well, if I had Morales go down on me, I’d be happy…”


  4. Chris R says:

    Especially impressive since he virtually ignored the American League in his pickups.

  5. zk says:

    Since this is about me, allow me to comment. (and say now that this must be what it is like to be a public official. I read this not knowing it was about me until the end, assuming someone else had the same “luck” I had on draft night…)

    1. @royce
    a. Votto for Lester was a good trade for me, but one that helped both teams greatly. I had no need for SP stats and he was heavy on offense. Trades often look like “steals” when you consider them in a vaccum.
    b. The insane vetoed trades were all vetoed because an owner decided he would rather destroy a league than admit his team was a complete disaster. This was the type of owner who talks about how bad everyone’s picks are and then believes his own to be from the belly of the Gods.
    c. While I agree that many of my pickups were due to “one or two good weeks,” I would point to the fact that I had Posey weeks before he was called up, but was forced to drop him due to (many) injuries.
    d. I agree with many of your points. While I’d like to think I’m a very good roto player, I know that sometimes I benefit from other owners being either too active or inactive. There are still teams making move in this league, though, and I have a 40 point lead. And Hanrahan was still available because Meek was the clear owner of saves in Pitt for like five days straight. Which is like 28 years in BuckoTime.

    2. @Chris R: I play NL_only auction style in my main leagues, so I tend to pay attention to NL players. You’ll notice my original squad is Marlin-heavy.

    3. This breakdown was exactly what I was hoping to write for my (premature) victory speech. Thesis: activity is half the battle.

  6. uhhhjboy says:

    “2/SP/Holliday” Halladay?

  7. Anonymous says:

    I love this sort of analysis. I subscribe to the open door policy for my teams. In my 10 team 6×6 keeper league where the first six picks are all automatic keepers (mine were Miggy, Hanley, Halladay, Wainwright, Granderson and Zobrist (DOH!)), I only still own 6 of my first 10 picks. Miggy, Hanley, Halladay, Wainwright, Soria and Rivera are still around. Granderson, Zobrist, Lind and Nolasco are gone. From rounds 11 to 24, I picked Vazquez, Bourn, Garza, K-Rod, Nyjer, Reimold, Bard, Kubel, Chris Perez, Soto, Correia, Posey, Zimmermann and Elder LaRoche. The only two players left on my team from that group are Bard and LaRoche. So I only have 1/3rd of my opening day roster and 2/3rds of my keepers and I had a 151-93-20 record, 6.5 games up on 2nd and 21 games up on 3rd and 4th. In my fresh dynasty, of my first 10 picks, I still have Kemp, Kinsler (although I refuse to take him off the DL with Neil Walker hot), Greinke, Hanson, Dunn, CarGo and Abreu. I’ve gotten rid of Morales (4th), Zobrist (5th) and Vazquez (8th). Of the next 15 guys, I’ve booted 12 of them: Papelbon (12th), Baker, Aardsma, Slowey, Beltre, Qualls, Morgan, Reimold, Francisco (14th-21st), Dotel, Moylan and Duchscherer (23rd-25th). The only 3 from the 11th-25th range were Shields (11th), Montero (13th) and Hart (22nd, although I actually dropped Hart once and was able to pick him back up right as his early season binge took off). So on that team, I’ve got 10 out of the original 25 (40%) still left. That team is 151-100-13, 13 games up on second. What am I getting at here? The early portion of the draft is meant to give you your core players that will be solid all year so you don’t have to worry about them. The latter half of your draft is about upside because chances are, you’re going to end up dropping half of your team for the appropriate hot hands/SAGNOFs/having to drop those who suck beyond comprehension.

    And I still hate Ben Zobrist. That is all.

  8. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @zk: Thanks for weighing in with the true thoughts of the “mistro”! You touch on the issue or “activity”. I posted representative stats in forums previously:

    Am curious about your opinion regarding such. I have a theory that some teams that stand at/near the top may be because they are taking advantage of weaker owners (who may not be as active and not “jumping on” players that you/others were able to get that they might not have if all/most of the owners in the league were very active.

    My league had the most overall adds/etc. by quite a margin over other leagues. Doesn’t seem as if we could accumulate quite the group that you did–but that may all be SOUR GRAPES!

    What do you think?

  9. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @royce!: Think zk answered much of your concerns. I started the look at his team just to try to learn “from the best.” Evolved to:

    1. Inspire me to look back at my draft and moves.

    2. Hope that the road to the top doesn’t have to be perfect.

  10. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @Bum Juice: Glad someone “got it”!

  11. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @uhhhjboy: Thank you! And, at one time I was a junior high English teacher. Many skills are eroding these days. “-(

  12. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @Anonymous: Now, that is what I was hoping to inspire in readers–to take a look at their own moves! Of course, you were already there. Thanks for sharing.

  13. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    One small item of note: I noticed that five of the top six in my RCL league have low waiver status. They are constantly working the wire. The ones at the top who have been ‘hanging on’ for ‘THE ONE MAGIC MOVE’ are at the bottom of the pack. Cust Kayin’.

  14. royce! says:

    @zk: Hey zk, I was worried that my comments might come off as critical in some manner. I didn’t mean them that way. I think you’ve clearly played well all year, and it shows. I am in nearly the same boat in the RCL but don’t expect to win the whole shebang because I don’t see any way that I could pick up 10 points to compete with you. My team has excelled partially due to decent draftees, but mostly due to grabbing people like Torres, Walker, etc., all of whom I picked up after they did well for a bit, so I’m definitely not criticizing you for doing so with the borderline guys whose unexpected play put your team over the top.

    Anyhow, congrats on pummeling your competition! And if anyone else in your league is reading this, pick up Hensley!

  15. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @uhhhjboy: Hey, think I had Halladay right? Reference?

  16. royce! says:

    @simply fred: Your idea that it is easier to excel in a less active league sounds intuitively correct, and the numbers for RCLs bear it out.

    The average score of the teams leading the leagues with the top 10 amount of moves is 94.25. The average score of the teams leading the leagues with the bottom 10 amount of moves is 96.6.

    If we get rid of the top scores of these two groups, the difference is more significant, and moves to 92 for the more active leagues and 96 for the less active (actually 95.9).

    I don’t know if a 4 point difference is meaningful enough to actually say that its proven, but since the claim seems intuitively correct, I think that I’m going to consider it proven.

    What would really reinforce it would be to see the distribution of the points in leagues in which there is a large gap between the amount of moves per team. That is, it would seem that a league in which everyone has made a similar amount of moves, even if the number of moves is small, would be more “competitive” than a league in which a few teams make a lot of moves and the other teams make very few moves. In our RCL, the top 6 teams have made a combined 417 acquisitions; the bottom 6 have combined for 82. That might just show that probably a majority of our league has basically quit, though.

  17. royce! says:

    I just had what I will flatteringly call an interesting thought– would it be fun to play in a league in which only 2 owners owned all, let’s say 12, teams? “Collusion” would be entirely okay, but there would have to be a rule that you had to keep all of your roster slots filled at all times. (Or not, I’m not sure.) Two teams would be stacked, and at first glance one would think that the remaining teams would be full of schmohawks, but that wouldn’t necessarily be a good idea, because it would mean that very good players would remain on the wire.

    I should probably give this more thought, but I might try it next year. There could be a catch that I’m not seeing that would make it extremely boring, but I don’t see it right now. The winner could either be the person with the most cumulative points across all teams, or the person with the top team. Either way it seems fun. And by fun I mean time-consuming.

  18. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @royce!: I like the way you think. Had batted around with Rudy the concept of applying “number of moves” as a factor in weighing league adjustments for RCL. I had noted a correlation but hadn’t looked at it quite like you describe with the averages(which I find intruguing). Pretty sure there isn’t a perfect model, and, Rudy aptly pointed out that if we were to tag “number of moves”, managers would, right away, artificially make moves just to get that number up.

    Would like to hear more from you/others regarding ways to measure the impact of being active. (I am pretty convinced it is a good thing to do.)

    Also, would like to hear from those that lean toward standing pat. What is it like for you to play with managers that are overly aggressive?

    Finally, don’t mean to turn this post into an “active” discussion. Heck, given the success zk had selecting 2 RP in his top 8 picks, it will definitely make me give them more thought next year.

  19. zk says:

    @royce!: Man, as long as you’re thinking critically about roto, I have no problem taking some constructive criticism. I have been thinking a lot of what both you and Fred have been saying since I took over the lead in June. My team defies some of the Roto logic that “experts” tend to trot out. But I definitely fall more on the Razz side of things than on the HatsBackwardSportsline side.

    @simply fred: 2 RPs in the first 8 rounds was not my goal, but I had the chance to take two “automatics” in a 12-team league. I don’t subscribe to the Punt Saves Movement if only because I get value on guys who will give me 40 saves and good Ks with outstanding ratios. It’s like when Matthew Berry says jump, I tell the guy next to me to ask “how high?”. The Broxton move backfired, obviously, but not before he put up a great May-July. If you took guys with track records, no real competition, and good K/9 ratios, you ended up with Billy Wagner, Mariano, Broxton, Marmol, Heath Bell. All ended up making a profit.

    My strategy is always PROFIT. This is easier to plot out in auction leagues (I’m 10x more comfortable with a budget), but in straight drafts I need to make sure I’m going to get value for the pick in the first four rounds and then grab guys who may not be sexy (Uggla, Prado, Bourn, Rios) but who, if they meet projections, will give me value at that pick. Latos was one of those guys, but his early starts threw me off the Profit Scent.

    Thanks for stealing my thunder. I’ll have to tackle something else should the Razz Founders want an end-of-the-year treatise. (This is, of course, should I win, which, as a Cubs fan, I have not taken to the bank.)

  20. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @royce!: Wanted to give you PROPER respect. Those averages for top 10’s was quick, on target, and telling–NICE!!!
    1. This my FIRST year in roto, so am truly trying to learn.
    2. Confession: I went against “traditional strategy”, drafted mostly hitters in first ten picks, then went 5 straight RP, didn’t draft my first SP until round 14. One of my shortfalls is making projections from small sample sizes. Somehow I had convinced myself that Closers with solid ERA’s and WHIP’s, supported by solid MR’s(last year’s didn’t hold up this year), and streaming SP was a good play. Unfortunately, by June 1, I was dead last in ERA and WHIP.
    3. I had thought that most conventional thinking was to avoid RP early (at least on Razzball), so I am encouraged that you had success with a couple in the top 10.
    4. Have to believe that PROFIT is what most managers would say drives them as well. It’s just that I definitely wasn’t as smart in projecting that this first year as much as I would like to have.
    5. Already thinking ahead to what might work next year, hence, this discussion.

    THANK YOU! and ROYCE! for sharing!!!

  21. Eddy says:

    Nice article! Since this is only my second year of fantasy baseball, it’s always great when I get a chance to glean off others who have had or are having success. I agree with what everyone has said in terms of activity. However I feel the urge to share a “freak” story.

    I have this guy in my league (H2H 12 team) who barely had any activity AT ALL. We’re talking 24 moves in the entire season. Compare that to the 209 that I made (ok, maybe about 150 if you take out a couple of streaming weeks) or at least the 80-130 moves that were average in our league. This guy ended up taking third in the regular standings and is now in the semis. I can’t even fathom how he’s done it. This is a guy who drafted Kemp in the 1st round, Lincecum in the 2nd, Kendry in the 3rd, Reynolds in the 4th, and hell, Markakis in the 6th! And with the exception of Kendry, he HASN’T DROPPED ANY and plays them every day. Trades are non existant to him too. Not a single one all season. If I had to pinpoint it’d have to be great success in drafting pitching (hit the jackpot with Ubaldo and JJ in their breakout seasons as well as Hanson and Brett Anderson to boot) and making perfectly timed SP pickups (Cueto, Tim Hudson, and Niese were all in season pick ups). He has even been the 2nd best in saves with only 3 closers all season.

    Now, I will say that he ended the last 2 months going 1-5-2, so it’s clear that his lack of moves caught up to him, but still, sometimes I just sit there and scratch my head.

    Anyways, just wanted to share that, cheers!

  22. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    Guys, I think I have heard similar stories regarding H2H. Doesn’t seem like it can happen in roto. Does it?

  23. Omnificent says:

    A thought on this… should this influence the way we draft? If you can recover via waiver wire super novas, why not draft the riskiest players on draft day?

    My first year of fantasy I drafted horribly, dropped players I should not have, and wound up finishing in the middle of the pack. But one thing I learned from that experience was how easy it was to recover. Interestingly, now in my third year I think I made the opposite mistake: held moderately high draft picks a little too long (lookin at you Reyes) even though I knew they were high risks and maybe just needed to admit the risk had not panned out.

  24. royce! says:

    @Eddy: Yep, I think I have the same guy in my h2h. He made it to the finals last year, but lost (on a tie breaker!), and this year is in second. This year he made 8(!) moves. He’s started Burnett all year. Key to his success has been having no one get terribly hurt and having everyone he drafted perform decently or exceed expectations (examples of the latter on his team- Rios, Beltre, Weaver).

    He’s probably my strongest anecdotal argument against h2h.

    @zk: Funny thing is that I drafted two RP within the first 9 rounds- Rivera and Bell. Considering that everyone was reaching for players I was targeting, I almost felt forced into drafting them. I’m trying to learn something from seeing how your team has done that will help me in later drafts and seasons and right now all I see is that it’s a good idea to balance risk. I.e., it seems that it’s helpful to have a mix of players who produce as you expect them to, players who exceed expectations, and players whose crappiness justify jettisoning them. The latter group allow you to gamble again, and place a bet on other risky players– they give you liquidity. I know absolutely nothing about financial investment, but it seems that this would be a good way to manage a portfolio.

    Another strategy that I sort of followed when drafting my RCL team was to check Rudy’s projected point shares, and pursue those players that seemed to be undervalued by other projection systems. Doing so landed me some studs (Sabathia, Bell, for example) and some duds (McLousy!).

  25. royce! says:

    @simply fred: It could happen in roto, but it’s much, much less likely. A person who doesn’t have the time or inclination to make moves in roto will almost certainly suffer for it. In h2h, you can totally get by. Or so it seems to me.

  26. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    Where do you guys stand regarding drafting MI? Rudy had done an early article on how fragile and unreliable they were and the least likely to return value as high picks. Given this year’s crop of problems (Kinsler, Reyes, Rollins, Tulo, etc.), it seems good to pass high picks next year?

    I have minor reservations because MI seemed much harder to replace than OF (where there are many more options on the waiver wire).

    It almost seems like it might be best to just try to find steady, if not stellar, performers in the later rounds and accept the lesser productivity in lieu of the greater loss of having wasted a high pick on them.


  27. Anonymous says:

    I don’t remember what I was thinking in regards to MI this year. I loved Zobrist so much from last year that I was willing to pay for him dearly in my dynasty. Now I’ve got Yunel at SS and Walker at 2B with Kinsler on the DL. Again, refuse to activate Kinsler until he shows some sign of life and until Walker’s bat cools. In the keeper, kept Hanley and Zobrist, but traded Zobrist (or dropped him.) Now have Hanley and Walker. Have I mentioned how much I love Walker?

  28. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @Anonymous: OK, given your lust for Zobrist last year, do you intend to draft Walker at all costs given your love for him this year? :-)

  29. Anonymous says:

    @simply fred: Doubt it, but I really doubt that he’ll have a price next year comparable to that of Zobrist’s this year (5th-6th round). Walker should at least be 15th or later, which is what I’m looking for in my keeper. In the dynasty, I hope I’m not pressing for roster moves, forcing me to remove Kinsler from my DL and dropping either Walker or Abreu. That’s not a choice I’d be thrilled to make.

  30. papasmurf says:

    Last year, I had 1 guy left from my original opening day lineup. Injuries, crappiness, or trades sent the rest away. It was a 16 team league so with a terrible draft like that, you would think my team was dead. But no, I won the league with the likes of Uribe and McGehee carrying the torch.

    The draft doesn’t mean much, it’s about making the moves and taking risks during the season.

    This year, my beginning roster was just as bad, if not worse. Mclouth, Roberts, Morales, E Cabrera, Chipper, yep, I suck at drafting. No such miracle luck this year.

    There’s a team with a crazy good offense (near or at the top in every offensive category). But, he sat on his hands all year and was content to go with the worst pitching staff in the league (ERA and WHIP wise). Happy to settle for 3rd, I guess. If I had his roster, I would win.

  31. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @papasmurf: Love your emphasis on the importance of “making moves and taking risks”. I am sold.

    “The draft doesn’t mean much”, yet: “If I had his roster….” Still want to have a roster out of the chute that gives me a fighting chance.

    Your note on the guy with the worst ERA and WHIP: what is your strategy to perform well in those cats?

  32. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @papasmurf: @simply fred: re: WHIP and ERA:

    I did find that SAGNOF worked for picking up SAVES during the season, however, the constant parade of closers-in-waiting, had a profound negative impact on those cats.

  33. zk says:

    @simply fred: This is exactly why I only chase saves late in the season, when my categories have been solidified by solid starting pitching. If you are chasing pitching as the season progresses, you usually end up taking ratio hits that are not worth the ground you gain. Get a couple of the closers who have big contracts and great track records early, and let everyone else worry about the Netfali Feliz’s of the world.

    As MLB enters this new Pitcher’s Era, methinks the AVOID PITCHERS mantra that is taking over in the Expert World is one that will allow roto players to capitalize on high value, low risk pitchers in 2011. Guys like Roy Halladay, pitchers with little to no injury risk and startlingly good ratios, are rarer than guys who can hit 30 home runs, and you have to pay a premium to get them. It’s pretty clear to me that the Steroid era is ending and pitchers are taking advantage of the fact that there are 30 teams, which means 90-120 hitters who have no business in the big leagues.

  34. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @zk: GOLD! My thoughts had started to drift this direction. This fits nicely with your concept of PROFIT.

    Follow-up question:

    ESPN ‘undroppables’ for SP this year were: Halladay, F-Her, Ubaldo, and Wainwright. These guys proved solid this year. Do you take the chance that an undroppable might go down and waste a roster spot the balance of the year?

  35. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @simply fred: ‘undroppables’ answered by Grey. ESPN drops the ‘undroppables’ from the list during the season if they aren’t doing well, so OK to ignore and draft at will.

  36. papasmurf says:

    @simply fred: Yeah, I don’t mean that ANY roster could win. Obviously one would need to have some good players, whether that’s from the draft or from trades/waivers. But one can theoretically win by just rotating FA guys. It won’t be easy or likely, but it’s doable. If you saw my final roster last year, you would think that the team was a bottom feeder. I was down 3 points on the final day of the season, but I ended up eeking out a 1.5 point margin of victory by basically going all out to squeeze pts out of any category that I could while the other guy was content to stay pat and try to hold his lead.

    If I was that dude with the talented hitters, I would have swung a deal or two to go after some pitching or at least rotate some guys from the FA pool. He had a legit chance to win the league but he did nothing worthwhile to improve his pitching. I think he wanted the moon for his hitters.

    I am a guy who’s not afraid to overpay for players if I think the deal will give my team a better chance to win, so I don’t agree with his approach. The way I see it, if you have a shot at the title, you gotta do whatever you can to win it.

  37. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:

    @papasmurf: Yeah, I’m not afraid to take risks either. I traded away Cruz, Arod, Guerrero, Hamilton, and Votto (amongst others) when they were hot. Unfortunately, I was sitting at 40.5 points when I started pushing the button. Even ‘giving away’ all that fire power, I have climbed to mid-60’s now. Still mid-pack, but the point is that I climbed the ladder considerably trading away choice players. Others in my league were aghast at the time. And, yes, my focus too was on taking minor hits in cats that I had strength in to make up larger ground in cats that were quite weak.

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