In the hot, steamy sweat of August, while the summer was bumping its uglies against us without our permission, Gavin Lux looked like the best player since Sliced Bread. You might remember, Sliced Bread was a Triple-A standout, hitting .350 with 34 homers in 78 games, but never caught on in the majors, and is now a third base coach for the Winnipeg Sweater Puppies. Sliced Bread is a cautionary stale, er, tale, and Lux doesn’t need to go that route. Looking at Lux in the cold dankness of the offseason, he doesn’t look as hump-worthy and more like a pump and dump scheme. What were we thinking then and can we start thinking it again? I.e., make me delusional again about Gavin Lux I want to put my heels under my head and go whee. Anyway, what can we expect from Gavin Lux in 2020 fantasy baseball?

First, let’s look at why I loved Gavin Lux all the way back into last season, i.e., about a month ago. He almost hit .400 in Triple-A with 13 homers and three steals in 49 games. It was in the PCL, the league where they displace juice in the balls for helium, and his .451 BABIP is a skosh high. Still, a 14.2% walk rate and 18.1% strikeout rate in Triple-A should translate to better plate discipline. Dot dot dot.  Eventually. Lux was exploited — 29.3% K-rate and .240 average — last year in his cup of coffee. In that cup of coffee he received a saucer of milk when he was supposed to cream the ball? Damn, Star-Lux sexpresso ended up looking like a Flat White. I know, black coffee matters, Wakanda forever and Americano exceptionalism, but I need more than “the usual” or a tall with grande dreams. Not saying Lux will be like a Starbucks bathroom where you find a plaid shirt with what you hope isn’t human waste. Maybe I should get out of this coffee shop while I’m writing. Check out what some jerk barista did to me:

I was absolutely owned! Any hoo! While Lux could start the year with the Dodgers, does he have an everyday job? The Dodgers look like they will promote him to start the year in the majors, but Joc Pederson has been trying to get a starting job for five years while he continues to platoon. I’m pretty much convinced if Corey Seager didn’t have a great rookie year, he’d be in a platoon. Dodgers are flush with options and it makes everyday playing time a bit of a challenge. Usually this wouldn’t matter, but Lux is the type to need runs and RBIs to boost his value and, if he’s out of the lineup, he’s losing opportunities. Funny that I mention Corey Seager (total coincidence!) because Lux reminds me a bit of him. Seager wasn’t quite as good as Lux in Triple-A, but it’s a different game, or rather, “Let the Kids Play Loud With A Juiced Ball.” Another portion of this blanket that is soaking with wetness, Alex Verdugo was supposed to be great in 2019. Again, not as good as Lux, but Verdugo was pretty forgettable. From what I can tell, Lux’s best case scenario is Corey Seager’s great rookie year, which was awesome — 26/3/.308 — with more speed. That’s nothing to sneeze at, unless you’re allergic to valuable shortstops. Realistically, though, I’d give Gavin Lux projections of 54/17/51/.271/10 in 403 ABs.

  1. trubull says:
    (link)

    With how deep SS is, that line wouldnt crack the top 25. 2020 new baseball may be different and he gets a boost up in the rankings over some but still… the ~20th SS is basically $1 guy on auction day. But he wont go for a dollar given the hype.

    Hes not a keeper for me except in only the deepest leagues

    • longbeachyo says:
      (link)

      Lux should have 2B eligibility in most leagues. 2B is much thinner, no?

      • Slappy Jack says:
        (link)

        He’s a 2b for the foreseeable future

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Yeah, 2B, but still only couple of dollars

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Couple dollars in 12-team leagues, agreed…

  2. Longbeachyo says:
    (link)

    Nice Grey. Very logical.
    Check this out. In a 6×6 league (OBP & QS,K/BB) we are able to keep 5 players at a maximum of $25…. Who would you keep from this list?
    Yelich-$15
    Bregman-$7
    Laureano-$1
    Lux-$1
    Muncy-$3
    Corbin-$3
    Hiura-$1
    S. Gray-$1
    Lamet-$1
    Hendriks-$1
    The remaining unused funds return to you as draft money, and we are allowed two off-season trades… What say you, FML?

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
      (link)

      I’d go with

      Yelich
      Bregman
      Laureano
      Hours
      Sonny

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
        (link)

        Hours = Hiura

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! I’m always going for logical! Next thing you know you’re gonna want me to date your sister…

      Yelich, Bregman, Muncy, Laureano, Sonny — if you wanted Hiura over Muncy, I wouldn’t stand in your way

      • Malicious Phenoms says:
        (link)

        Muncy is 3 bucks, he can’t afford him..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oops, you’re right!

  3. Slappy Jack says:
    (link)

    Lux made swing change before the 2018 season
    Has raked at all stops since,
    except for his 75 AB cup of coffee as a 21 year old

    I think he’ll be pretty good

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, I could be, but still some risk involved

  4. I’ll be letting somebody else have the luxury of taking this young stud. PT being the biggest issue for me

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      There’s prolly safer options for where he’ll be drafted

      • Smitty says:
        (link)

        Robber(ts) has too many RH options (C. Taylor, K. Hernandez) not to platoon the kid. Similar to Pud Black with Hampson in Colorado – let the kids play!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I don’t know everyone’s contract situation, but agreed and why I only gave Lux 400 ABs

  5. longbeachyo says:
    (link)

    Thanks Grey!
    Ultimately I think we’ll have to revisit this in the spring. If the Dodgers make some moves and sign Rendon, that could potentially move Turner to first and Muncy to second leaving Lux out in the cold. However, if playing time somehow miraculously opens up, and Roberts gets fired, and Gavin deLux is raking in spring training, I could see Dodger homers going nuts… $20 easily, at least in my league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, that’s true, the whole lineup could be scrambled in a few months

  6. Harley Earl says:
    (link)

    Have to agree. Lux’s first trip to the Majors didn’t do much to inspire me about his near-term future.

    I could see a year of struggles followed by a year of success when he’s a buy low candidate in 2021. I’m thinking Scott Kingery 2.0 type rebound success, but I’m not a buyer in 2020.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Maybe, have to see

Comments are closed.