Marco! Polo! No, no, no, let’s start this over. Marco! New Zealand? C’mon, readership, you’re better than that. It’s in the title! Deep League Thoughts? Now you’re just eff’ing with me. I’m gonna remember this. I don’t even know why I let you italicize in my opening paragraph. If you were on twitter, I’d unfollow you at this point. We’re here to talk about Marco ESTRADA!!!! I hate you all…yes, we’re here to talk about Marco Estrada. You may say to yourself, ‘didn’t we already do this last year with unsuccessful results?’ It’s true, Grey brought us a Marco Estrada Sleeper post last season. If you wanna know where most of this post is going, that’s probably a great place to start. Not much has changed about Marco going into this season except for perception as he wasn’t only a Razzball darling in 2013. Don’t believe me? Here’s the google proof! All this to say, he came into 2013 with a full head of steam as someone who was going to outperform his draft day price. Which of course, changed his draft day price to what it really should’ve been on draft day. Funny how that works. All of this to say, Estrada went from sleeper pitcher to an urban dictionary curse word for failed sleepers. I think Grey wrote that one even…but nevertheless, stop living in the past! We’re here to look into the almost immediate future. So let me grab my crystal balls and tell you why Estrada is a great get for deep leagues for the 2014 Fantasy Baseball season…
To talk about what Marco can do for you, we must first talk about what he can’t do for you without extreme luck. He is going to have a hard time living up to his xFIP which for his career floats around 3.50 because of his FB tendencies. Of the 128 pitchers in 2013 who cleared 120 IP, Marco finished 115th in GB/FB rate at 0.85. Now this stat in and of itself is not damning by any means. Max Scherzer finished 119th. Like I said, not damning stats but here’s what is: 93.3 vs 89.2. That’s the average fastball of Scherzer vs Estrada in 2013. One of these things is not like the other, clearly, and when you factor in home ballpark – Miller Park tends to rank in top 10, most times top 7 in HRs allowed – you’re seeing why that FB tendency can sometimes get Marco in a little trouble. He can’t just blow it by guys and he never will. If I were looking for a comparative to some old school back end fantasy baseball staffers we’ve had, it would probably have to be Ted Lilly only a bit better due to fastball speeds. Both attack the zone, both have great walk rates and both came on late in their careers with high FB tendencies. If Marco were playing for the Dodgers at Dodgers stadium for half his games, I’d probably soil myself with delight but he’s not so I’ll just soil myself the regular way and be ok with it because he’s going so late. What’s that smell? It’s the smell of success and used nachos with beer! Now pardon me while I go change my drawers.
Sky Sperling is a contributor for Razzball Football and Razzball Baseball. He’s also a lover of fine beer, fine women and fine-toothed combs. You can follow him on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams.
