Pre-Season fantasy predictions

Place to discuss all things to do with the RCLs. League updates, league trash talk and RCL trade talk.
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Pre-Season fantasy predictions

Postby no1gandolf » Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:01 am


I have had an ongoing conversation with frequent Commenter Simply Fred concerning your uncanny accuracy when evaluation trades, FA/Waiver pickups on the thousands of questions that you are asked in a season. But I had suggested that a more comprehensive evalution take place; i.e., how does your season's predictions on RCL squads stand up over time. It is a bit over the half way mark in the season, so I thought that I would bring up my initial squad,including my comments as well as your assessment, and see how it stands out.


1- Hanley Ramirez, Fla SS - I had second pick. Reyes had been taken. It was either HanRam or Poo holes, and I had the latter in another league. You can hardly go wrong with either.
2- Justin Morneau - Min !B - I am not a big fan of Morneau, but if I remember correctly, first baseman were going quickly, and I wanted to get at least a 2nd tier guy. (Puhols is top tier all by himself. I think that Gray said that.)
3 - CC Sabathia - NYY SP - Rudy's philosophy all the way. Lots of wins, lots of K's, lots of innings, no health problems.
4 - Ichiro Suzuki - Sea OF - I'm not a big fan, and have never drafted Ichiro before, and I had HamRam, and didn't particularly need the steals. I think outfielders were going quickly. And now he is on the DL.
5 - Magglio Ordonez - Det OF - Solid and steady producer
6 - Felix Hernandez - Sea SP - Gray's influence
7 - Ryan Ludwick, StL OF - I had him last year, and felt that he was a bargain in 7th round. He has as many round-trippers as Puhols last year.
8 - Mariano Rivera - NYY RP - Best closer in ML history; no one lese is even close. Age has not hit him as yet. Has never had a bad year. Ever. Thus rules for closers don't apply.
9 - Jose Lopez - Sea 2B - A pick out of sheer desparation. Some jeering from my peers. However, the list of quality 2 baggers was thin, and I didn't want to get stuck with Polanco. His stats, BTW, indicate that he should be drafted around the 9th round, and not where he was projected to go. Just realized that 3 of my first 8 picks were Mariners. Could that be a RED FLAG for my draft?
10 - Lastings Milledge - Wsh OF - I thought the spell had waned, but I couldn't resist my favorite Bowden fluffer
11 - Ryan Zimmerman - Wsh 3B - Always dissapoints, and probably will do so again.
12 - Scott Baker - Min SP - Solid starter; I'm hoping for close to 15 wins and 175 K's; hopefully the shoulder stiffness is not a red flag
13 - Mike Aviles - KC 2b/SS - someone on Razzball said that Aviles was Blahtastic recently. .325 and 10 dingers seems ok for a back-up MI.
14 - Carlos Guillen, Det 3B - Hoping that his back does not act up, and he regains 2007 form: 21 homers and 102 RBI. If he doesn't, and Zim doesn't step up, third base could be an issue.
15 - Ryan Dempster, ChC SP - I had Dempster all last year, and he was terrific, and was the ultimate Homeschooler. All the Analcysts kept telling me to sell high; thankfully, I avoided doing so. This year they all say he will regress. I think not.
16 - Brian Wilson, SF RP - 40 saves for the Giants is close to Razztastic, although the ERA not so much.
17 - Jorge Posada, NYY C - I live in the NY area, and when the Mets aren't on, i tune in to watch the Phils and the Yanks. Posada still can hit, hasn't lost bat speed, will DH and pace himself, but I am betting that his final stats will be as good as any but the top 4 catchers.
18 - Chris Carpenter, StL SP - My best pick in the draft.
19 - Melvin Mora, Bal 3B - The old man is a Ribbie machine, and has gotten off to a fast start
20 - Travis Snider, Tor OF - A poor man's Jay Bruce
21 - Kevin Gregg, ChC RP - I can't stand Gregg
22 - Mike Pelfrey, NYM SP - Great 2nd half stats last year; with his speed, his K's will increase.
23 - Khalil Greene, StL SS - A prayer and a hope that he will come close to his potential
24 - Jose Guillen*, KC OF - already cut; currently Kyle Davies is the replacement
25 - Daniel Murphy, NYM - You will all be on the Murphy bandwagon in several months. The kid can hit, and he is sandwiched between Reyes and Wright.

All in all, I am ok with my team. I think that it is solid enough to contend. It is not a powerhouse in any one area, but seems, at least to me, well balanced. But, of course, other feedback is always welcome.

Grey - Nice breakdown. I especially liked your Murphy prediction. You will all know better soon! And nice use of the glossary on Dempster, though I don't agree he'll be fine this year. I think expecting .325 from Aviles is way too optimistic. Don't see why you need Ichiro and Hanley and I'd look to trade Suzuki. Pelfrey? Oh, you're a Mets fan. I see. Overall your team looks fine, but I'm not personally a fan of a lot of your guys -- Guillen, Pelfrey, Greene, Posada, Mags and Morneau.

Analysis - Murphy was a bust. Aviles was a complete bust, and a waste of a high draft pick. Pelfrey has been mediocre at best, and not worth owning. Guillen, Green, and Mags have been cut from my squad, and except for Mags, no one has been the least bit interested in picking him up. Dempster has had the pentultimate in mediocre seasons, and is now on the DL for a good bit of the remaining season.. Suzuki is an excellent player in real life, but really has only helped me in one cat: - BA. He is dissapointing ( to me) in steals and especially runs scored. So, on all of these choices, you were spot on. I would state that you were incorrect on Morneau, who has had an excellent season, and at least partially on Posada, who has been quite good, although missing a lot of time on the DL. Let's call that a draw. So on the players that you have commented on; here is the record from my team:

7 - Completely accurate assessment.
1 - Innacurate assessment
1 - Draw.

I would think that would stack up with any fantasy writer on the planet.

We also had several conversations regarding a personal favorite of mine, Volquez, who I don't own in my RCL league, but own in two Yahoo leagues.

We also had several discussions on Volquez, who is a favorite of mine.

Again, you were spot on. First of all, he was on the risky pitcher list.

Here is your quote, also in the forum:

"Volquez wasn't as good as he showed last year, he was lucky and he's wild"

I am notably impressed. Either you have a remarkable intuitive ability that goes far beyond the number-crunchers, or have Uri Geller secretly on your payroll.

Paulie Allnuts

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Re: Pre-Season fantasy predictions

Postby Grey » Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:16 am

Grey Albright

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.

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Simply Fred
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Re: Pre-Season fantasy predictions

Postby Simply Fred » Thu Jul 16, 2009 7:47 am

Nice! "This is what he do."

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Re: Pre-Season fantasy predictions

Postby inertiatic » Thu Jul 16, 2009 3:58 pm

It is truly incredible just how accurate Grey is. What amazes me most, though, is how he finds the time to know so much about baseball and still maintain such a kick-ass moustache.
10 tm H2H Dynasty (3rd Year)
7X7 + TB, OPS & Holds, QS
C- Weiters
1B- Goldy
2B- Ever-Cab
3B- Longoris
SS- Tulo
OF-(start 3) Braun, C. Davis, Kemp, Marte, Cuddyer
UTIL- Votto, one of the above OF
Bench- 1 spot for a hot-schmotato

SP- Greinke, Latos, M. Moore, Medlen, Iwakuma, Hamels, Gausman, E. Ramirez, H. Bailey, T. Walker, J. Tallion, M. Pineda, I. Nova
RP- A. Reed, R. Soriano, G. Holland, Balfour, D. Smyly
DL- B. Beachy

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Re: Pre-Season fantasy predictions

Postby Steve » Fri Jul 17, 2009 2:33 am

Grey wrote:Geller

OK - so what's the inside word on all the MJ shizz?
This IS my f**king outlet!

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