Good closers vs. Bad closers

Steals/Saves Ain't Got No Face. Closers and speed talk. Which MRs are moving in? Which schmohawk speedster is getting steals at MI?
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Good closers vs. Bad closers

Postby noeeey » Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:01 pm

Has there ever been anything written about the difference in ERA and WHIP that a "good" closer has on your team compared to that of a "bad" closer? How many points in both categories do "good" closers actually get you?

For instance, if your team had an ERA and WHIP of 4.00 and 1.30 that featured Fernando Rodney (4.40 and 1.47) and Bobby Jenks (3.71, 1.27) as your closers, and you replaced those guys with Bailey (1.84, 0.88) and Soriano (2.97, 1.06), how much would that actually help you in ERA and WHIP?

I understand that this is all relative to how many innnings your team has pitched, but there must have been something written about this subject.

Noey Kupchan
aka The Bad Guy

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Re: Good closers vs. Bad closers

Postby Grey » Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:31 pm

I'm sure I've written something on the subject, but here's something Rudy wrote: ... t-closers/
Grey Albright

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.

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Simply Fred
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Re: Good closers vs. Bad closers

Postby Simply Fred » Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:38 pm

I have a spreadsheet that has Grey's hitter, and Bill James' pitcher (will be updated when Grey does his pitchers), stats. I filled in every player's stats for a standard ESPN 5X5 mock that I did (9P: 6SP and 3 RP). That is what I am using to try players in and out to see the impact on roto.

I filled in your first 2, recorded the cat rankings, then the replacement 2.

You gained 2 ranks (of 12) in ERA, none in WHIP. This is VERY contingent on the makeup of the teams in a given draft but gives you some indication of the impact (In another mock dropping a top closer for a bottom closer was a loss of 4 ranks, significant just for the one position). I then added in James projections for K, W, and S as well. You picked up 1 rank in W.

Grey pointed out in his Sanchez post that ERA is tough to predict. I actually went back 3 years to compare K, ERA, and WHIP for stability. WHIP is very stable and was slightly ahead of K (which Grey rightly harps on). ERA is VERY unpredictable.

Given that your gain was in two unreliable and unpredictable cats from year to year, I would say the gain appears marginal. (In large part because the SP have a much higher number of IP and therefore a bigger impact on cats other than S.) But, given the prior loss from one player, not sure how much you can make of it.

Hope this gives you some perspective.

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Re: Good closers vs. Bad closers

Postby spamcakes » Sat Feb 20, 2010 5:46 am

As has been stated, depends on the number of pitchers on your team (4x4, 5x5) and in your league as well as number of innings pitched and yada yada yada

Bottom line is that I ran stats in a mock league and got same results as Simply Fred - couple of points swing.

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