Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

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Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Thu Sep 18, 2008 12:48 pm

...and I'm back. Anyway, the math is really important because it really sets forth exactly what a team will need in order to catch up (or fall behind if you're looking at things from the other perspective). In my situation, the math is pretty clear, but even sometimes with closer calls, the math can help with strategic decisions.

So I'm now in full streaming mode. Since my last post, I picked up Longoria from waivers and dropped Teahan for today's roster. I also dropped B. Wood and picked up Callaspo for today's roster. I don't really think that Callaspo is better than B. Wood, but I'm more confident of Callaspo playing every game (something that B. Wood is not doing).

My SPs for today are Lincecum and Kershaw. I got a good game out of Kershaw already. Wish Saito hadn't ruined the win though.

For tomorrow, I've dropped Kershaw for J. Johnson (Philadelphia at home). I've also dropped Billingsley for Scherzer (at Colorado). Yeah, yeah, I know Billingsley is a keeper, but he's not for me when I get to keep only 5 players. I also want to win this year and need roster room to stream pitchers. Billingsley sitting on my bench for 5 days isn't going to do me much good, even if someone else grabs him before I get back to him.

Finally, I dropped Longoria again for As. Cabrera. Mi. Cabrera is going back in my 3B spot and I need a MI player for Friday.

A few more thoughts:

1. I'm on the fence between Shealy or N. Cruz for my UT spot for Friday. N. Cruz got dropped for Shealy today because the Rangers are off.

2. Maddux (SF at home) and Wolf (at Pittsburgh) are also available. I'm wondering if it would be worth it to drop As. Cabrera for one of them (probably Maddux) to get more pitching. By the way, I realize tha Maddux has the better matchup, but went with the other two pitchers for their K contributions.

3. I'm losing all of the batting categories, but I don't think that it's as bad as it looks. It's not an insurmountable difference yet. I just need my guys to heat up and my opponent's guys to revert to normal.

You know, if I end up losing, I'm going to be pretty bummed out because (1) I dominated the regular season and (2) I played with, I believe, a fairly sound strategy. If I end up winnning somehow, however, I'll be thrilled because I would have had to come from behind using the same fairly sound strategy to overcome bad luck or bad timing. The question is whether the player in H2H can overcome the effects of luck. I think in fantasy football, the answer is no. I've not yet made up my mind about fantasy baseball.

Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Thu Sep 18, 2008 1:10 pm

G'dammit. Shouldn't have swapped out Teahan for Longoria.

A. Ramirez has been incredibly hot lately. Another HR! He's killing me.

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Steve
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Steve » Thu Sep 18, 2008 2:10 pm

I think that in H2H it's fair to say that you can make sound, logical decisions based on impeccable research and reasoning - and still get beaten by a guy who had two or three players get hot at just the right time.

Is it a one-week or two-week playoff?
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Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Thu Sep 18, 2008 2:33 pm

Two weeks. If it were only one week, I'd be toast already.

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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Thu Sep 18, 2008 2:42 pm

I really envy people living in NZ, by the way. I spent a month there back in 2006, with almost all of my time spent on the South Island, visting Christchurch, Franz Josef, Wanaka, Queenstown, Te Anau, Aoraki, etc. Beautiful country. If I did not have to work or worry about money, I would seriously consider relocating there permanently.

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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Steve » Thu Sep 18, 2008 2:46 pm

You took in the best part of the country, scenery-wise, that's for sure. Auckland's a pretty good city to live in, but it's really spectacular down there.
This IS my f**king outlet!

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Thu Sep 18, 2008 6:06 pm

1. I'm on the fence between Shealy or N. Cruz for my UT spot for Friday. N. Cruz got dropped for Shealy today because the Rangers are off.


Shealy
2. Maddux (SF at home) and Wolf (at Pittsburgh) are also available. I'm wondering if it would be worth it to drop As. Cabrera for one of them (probably Maddux) to get more pitching. By the way, I realize tha Maddux has the better matchup, but went with the other two pitchers for their K contributions.
Maddux, Wolf are both solid streamers, drop The Dribble.
3. I'm losing all of the batting categories, but I don't think that it's as bad as it looks. It's not an insurmountable difference yet. I just need my guys to heat up and my opponent's guys to revert to normal.
Now you're talking. If you can't tell, I do like to stay optimistic.
You know, if I end up losing, I'm going to be pretty bummed out because (1) I dominated the regular season and (2) I played with, I believe, a fairly sound strategy. If I end up winning somehow, however, I'll be thrilled because I would have had to come from behind using the same fairly sound strategy to overcome bad luck or bad timing. The question is whether the player in H2H can overcome the effects of luck. I think in fantasy football, the answer is no. I've not yet made up my mind about fantasy baseball.
H2H is tremendously flawed because of the playoffs problems. You shouldn't have a season come down to Ryan Shealy just because some of your guys are in the playoffs and the managers are resting them, or because they are simply cold.

Honestly, I'm really surprised this many people play H2H.
Grey Albright
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:22 pm

Reporting in the end of Thursday night. Here is the score:

Rs - 40-29 - I'm losing
HRs - 12-9 - I'm losing
RBIs - 33-28 - I'm losing
SBs - 3-1 - I'm losing
AVG - .337-.299 - I'm losing

Ks - 30-33 - I'm winning
Wins - 2-1 - I'm losing
Saves - 1-3 - I'm winning
ERA - 2.70-6.68 - I'm losing
WHIP - 1.35-1.48 - I'm losing

1. In the end, it turns out that I was wrong about being wrong about Longoria for Teahan. Teahan had a nice day, but Longoria's 3 HRs tonight was simply an amazing performance. I'm fairly torn between Shealy, N. Cruz and Longoria for tomorrow. Right now, I'm leaning towards Longoria, not because I think that he's going to hit more HRs, but because he's definitely going to play. Shealy and N. Cruz both should play most of the games, but Shealy has competition from Ka'aihue and N. Cruz plays in a generally crowded outfiield. Hmm, just noticed that Milledge is facing Peavy tomorrow...going with N. Cruz instead, who will be at home against Garland.

2. Maddux and Wolf were both grabbed by my opponent so they are no longer options. Looking at the other available SPs, I am going to take a pass. Wish I had not waited to grab Maddux, but I actually thought that my opponent would sit tight and not risk his ERA and WHIP by streaming. Guess I'm so behind in those two categories that there's little risk of my opponent falling behind by streaming.

3. C. Perez was horrible again tonight and lost a save situation to Motte. What happened to my advantage in saves? Sure hasn't looked very good so far. Percival was not given the save situation, but Wheeler got knocked around, so I was happy with the end result. Think that the Rays will go with Percival next time out. By the way, I am dropping C. Perez for Motte. C. Perez has had an ERA of 7.71 in the past two weeks. I think he's done for the year from closing.

4. I'm still behind in steals and B.J. Upton is nowhere to be found. I'm starting to get nervous about that category. Am thinking that Velez may be a better choice at the moment for me than As. Cabrera.

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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:38 pm

Reporting in the end of Thursday night. Here is the score:

Rs - 40-29 - I'm losing
HRs - 12-9 - I'm losing
RBIs - 33-28 - I'm losing
SBs - 3-1 - I'm losing
AVG - .337-.299 - I'm losing

Ks - 30-33 - I'm winning
Wins - 2-1 - I'm losing
Saves - 1-3 - I'm winning
ERA - 2.70-6.68 - I'm losing
WHIP - 1.35-1.48 - I'm losing

1. In the end, it turns out that I was wrong about being wrong about Longoria for Teahan. Teahan had a nice day, but Longoria's 3 HRs tonight was simply an amazing performance. I'm fairly torn between Shealy, N. Cruz and Longoria for tomorrow. Right now, I'm leaning towards Longoria, not because I think that he's going to hit more HRs, but because he's definitely going to play. Shealy and N. Cruz both should play most of the games, but Shealy has competition from Ka'aihue and N. Cruz plays in a generally crowded outfiield. Hmm, just noticed that Milledge is facing Peavy tomorrow...going with N. Cruz instead, who will be at home against Garland.
The worst is when a guy hits three HRs and then you feel you have to play him when odds say he's not going to hit 3 HRs again. (BTW, not saying you're doing this, I'm talking in general. It's like this for when a guy pitches well (Morrow) and you know it's not a harbinger but you're still swayed.) Anyway... Cruz seems like a decent slot-in.
2. Maddux and Wolf were both grabbed by my opponent so they are no longer options. Looking at the other available SPs, I am going to take a pass. Wish I had not waited to grab Maddux, but I actually thought that my opponent would sit tight and not risk his ERA and WHIP by streaming. Guess I'm so behind in those two categories that there's little risk of my opponent falling behind by streaming.
Then hopefully he starts them and has two bad games then he's stuck streaming other ones and ends up blowing it for himself.
3. C. Perez was horrible again tonight and lost a save situation to Motte. What happened to my advantage in saves? Sure hasn't looked very good so far. Percival was not given the save situation, but Wheeler got knocked around, so I was happy with the end result. Think that the Rays will go with Percival next time out. By the way, I am dropping C. Perez for Motte. C. Perez has had an ERA of 7.71 in the past two weeks. I think he's done for the year from closing.
That's probably true as far as Perez goes.
4. I'm still behind in steals and B.J. Upton is nowhere to be found. I'm starting to get nervous about that category. Am thinking that Velez may be a better choice at the moment for me than As. Cabrera.
Velez is hitting, too. He's got decent short-term value and that's all you need him for.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:36 am

I realize that I take fantasy baseball way too seriously. Anyway, I just got done with my add/drops for Saturday (i.e., tomorrow). I waited by the computer as the seconds ticked down to 2:20 and the first game began. Then I dropped J. Johnson for Kuroda (SF at home), Scherzer for Young (at Washington) and Callaspo for Aceves (Baltimore at home). Plus, Kazmir and I'm looking to rack up some serious innings on Saturday. The best part might be what I'm leaving for my opponent. Still angry that I left Maddux for him to grab today, I'm leaving him Cueto, Padilla, A. Sanchez, Sowers, Silva and a bunch of other guys who are risks to be blown up.

Not sure if I'm really using Aceves tomorrow. Seems like there's not much downside. In any event, if I change my mind, I can always switch him out for a MI one minute prior to the start of games tomorrow.

Great for me that the Cubs play the first game today. I was able to see that Soto is off today, so I swapped him out for Sandoval.

I'm trying really hard here. Hoping to close the gap by the end of the first week.


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