Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Tue Sep 16, 2008 12:49 pm

For Melky? Wow, nice trade.
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Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Tue Sep 16, 2008 4:29 pm

What's funny is that you were lukewarm about the trade at the time that it happened. I would do the me quoting you thing, but the search function doesn't search comments and I'm too lazy to go digging.

My opponent had Choo and Casilla active tonight. That was dumb because both players are in games that started around 7:00 tonight. If he had been paying attention, he would have seen that neither of these two guys are in their respective games. So woot! An extra 8 at bats or so for me. We'll see at the end of two weeks whether squeezing the last drops out of the lemon meant anything.

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Tue Sep 16, 2008 5:04 pm

What's funny is that you were lukewarm about the trade at the time that it happened. I would do the me quoting you thing, but the search function doesn't search comments and I'm too lazy to go digging.
Really? Hmm, maybe I was overcompensating because I just traded him to Rudy for Greinke and I didn't want to seem too low on him. Though probably not the only blunder I made this year. I'll be looking back in the offseason at some of my wiser moves and some of my not so great ones. Hardball Times took a look at my first basemen preseason rankings:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fanta ... look-back/

Um, yeah. I'd probably change a few but that was the point of the post, at least that's the story I'm sticking to.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Tue Sep 16, 2008 9:49 pm

I have some thoughts about projections, Marcels, Ron Shandler's great myths of projective accuracy, etc. but will save those for the off season. It's really the part of fantasy baseball that I enjoy the best. The current part is probably what I enjoy the least. Maybe I'm just saying that based on recent performances...

Anyway, I think that it's great that The Hardball Times mentioned this site. Gratz! Did you know that they were/are looking for writers for Fantasy Focus next year? I guess the downside is that it would take away from time for this site. But it could mean a bigger audience. Wonder what happened to Derek Carty?

On to the update...

The suck continues. As of the end of tonight, I am losing 1-9:

Runs - I am losing 18 to 8.
HRs - I am losing 5 to 2.
RBIs - I am losing 15 to 8.
SBs - I am losing 1 to 0.
AVG - I am losing .309 to .247.

Ks - I am "winning" because it is a 6 to 6 tie.
Wins - I am "losing" because it is a 1 to 1 tie.
Saves - I am losing 1 to 0.
ERA - I am losing 2.25 to 17.36.
WHIP - I am losing 0.63 to 2.57.

So you can see, I have quite a mountain now in front of me. I feel terrible. And really all I can do is keep playing my guys and see what happens. Roster management only gets you so far. Some of my guys will simply need to start playing better.

With Hart now in the sixth spot in the order and Cameron in the lead-off spot, I am wondering whether Hart should be dropped for Cameron. Or whether Hart should be dropped for Longoria who is in an AL lineup and is batting fourth with B.J. Upton still out.

For tomorrow, I do not foresee any switch in the roster. I have Billingsley going against Pittsburgh and Baker going against Cleveland, so maybe my ERA and WHIP will improve. J. Sanchez is available for a start against Arizona, and I am a bit tempted by that consider how often Arizona whiffs and how poorly that team has been playing as of late, but there is of course a risk of damaging my ERA and WHIP further. If I pick up J. Sanchez, I will need to drop B. Wood or Callaspo and hope that B.J. Upton will be back. Not likely, so it is really like giving up 4 at bats.

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Tue Sep 16, 2008 10:06 pm


Runs - I am losing 18 to 8.
HRs - I am losing 5 to 2.
RBIs - I am losing 15 to 8.
SBs - I am losing 1 to 0.
AVG - I am losing .309 to .247.

Ks - I am "winning" because it is a 6 to 6 tie.
Wins - I am "losing" because it is a 1 to 1 tie.
Saves - I am losing 1 to 0.
ERA - I am losing 2.25 to 17.36.
WHIP - I am losing 0.63 to 2.57.

So you can see, I have quite a mountain now in front of me. I feel terrible. And really all I can do is keep playing my guys and see what happens. Roster management only gets you so far. Some of my guys will simply need to start playing better.

With Hart now in the sixth spot in the order and Cameron in the lead-off spot, I am wondering whether Hart should be dropped for Cameron. Or whether Hart should be dropped for Longoria who is in an AL lineup and is batting fourth with B.J. Upton still out.

For tomorrow, I do not foresee any switch in the roster. I have Billingsley going against Pittsburgh and Baker going against Cleveland, so maybe my ERA and WHIP will improve. J. Sanchez is available for a start against Arizona, and I am a bit tempted by that consider how often Arizona whiffs and how poorly that team has been playing as of late, but there is of course a risk of damaging my ERA and WHIP further. If I pick up J. Sanchez, I will need to drop B. Wood or Callaspo and hope that B.J. Upton will be back. Not likely, so it is really like giving up 4 at bats.
Hart's been in a sinkhole for a while now. I really think you should move on from him. Also, I think you should grab the hottest hand available, Shealy, Teagarden, Adam LaRoche, Milledge...

Don't pickup Sanchez. Diamondbacks have been poor offensively, but you don't want to risk it yet.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Wed Sep 17, 2008 9:16 am

It really says a lot about how low Hart's stock has sunk that you would advocate dropping him for Shealy here, while remarking in the comments that no one too valuable should be dropped for Shealy. It also says a lot about how the Brewer's stock has sunk that my opponent has decided to stream Marquis against them today. Risky, but it seems like the sort of risk that could pay off.

I dropped Callaspo for As. Cabrera. Ass-dribble. Hehe. I'm seven!

I woke up this morning having decided not to drop Hart. We all saw how quickly McLouth heated back up, and I thought that Hart had as good of a chance of contributing as anyone else. On further reflection, however, I decided that I just didn't have the luxury to take that chance, so I picked up Milledge. Milledge is batting 4th for the Nats, so right there he has an advantage over Hart, who was batting 6th in the order last night. Milledge is also playing his next few games at home where he bats better than on the road. To the extent that I consider SB a must win category (and I do at this point), Milledge should be as likely to help me as Hart. I'm not sure that I would be losing much elsewhere even if Hart returned to normal production. I hope that I made the right decision.

By the way, the Brewers are playing all of their remaining games on the road. This is significant for Hart because his batting average is .286 on the road and .261 at home. I'm sure he's going to get grabbed in my league, so this is moot, but I just want to point out that the forecast is not entirely negative for him for the rest of year. I just don't feel like I could take the chance of waiting.

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Wed Sep 17, 2008 9:21 am

It really says a lot about how low Hart's stock has sunk that you would advocate dropping him for Shealy here, while remarking in the comments that no one too valuable should be dropped for Shealy. It also says a lot about how the Brewer's stock has sunk that my opponent has decided to stream Marquis against them today. Risky, but it seems like the sort of risk that could pay off.

I dropped Callaspo for As. Cabrera. Ass-dribble. Hehe. I'm seven!

I woke up this morning having decided not to drop Hart. We all saw how quickly McLouth heated back up, and I thought that Hart had as good of a chance of contributing as anyone else. On further reflection, however, I decided that I just didn't have the luxury to take that chance, so I picked up Milledge. Milledge is batting 4th for the Nats, so right there he has an advantage over Hart, who was batting 6th in the order last night. Milledge is also playing his next few games at home where he bats better than on the road. To the extent that I consider SB a must win category (and I do at this point), Milledge should be as likely to help me as Hart. I'm not sure that I would be losing much elsewhere even if Hart returned to normal production. I hope that I made the right decision.

By the way, the Brewers are playing all of their remaining games on the road. This is significant for Hart because his batting average is .286 on the road and .261 at home. I'm sure he's going to get grabbed in my league, so this is moot, but I just want to point out that the forecast is not entirely negative for him for the rest of year. I just don't feel like I could take the chance of waiting.
Honestly, at this point, what's the most you can get from Hart - 5/3/7/.500/3. You can get that from Milledge very easily. I wouldn't be too concerned.

Shealy's been hot and you really never know where a hot guy is going to come from for a weeks time. If there was a month left, I wouldn't advocate picking him up, but with a week and a half? No harm, no foul really.

EDIT: I changed some of those Hart numbers to make them a bit more realistic.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:14 pm

Even those edited numbers for Hart don't look very realistic.

I made a bunch of roster moves after the first game started this afternoon. Cleveland is off on Thursday so As. Cabrera was dropped for Teahan. Texas is off on Thursday also so N. Cruz was dropped for Shealy. I also dropped Baker, who is pitching today, for Kershaw, who will be pitching at Pittsburgh on Thursday. At the moment, I have an extra batting spot that is being unused for Thursday. Depending on how Billingsley and Baker pitch for me tonight, I might drop Kershaw tomorrow for another batter. Litsch getting Baltimore at home and Olsen getting Houston at home are other streaming possibilities for Thursday.

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Wed Sep 17, 2008 2:32 pm

Even those edited numbers for Hart don't look very realistic.

I made a bunch of roster moves after the first game started this afternoon. Cleveland is off on Thursday so As. Cabrera was dropped for Teahan. Texas is off on Thursday also so N. Cruz was dropped for Shealy. I also dropped Baker, who is pitching today, for Kershaw, who will be pitching at Pittsburgh on Thursday. At the moment, I have an extra batting spot that is being unused for Thursday. Depending on how Billingsley and Baker pitch for me tonight, I might drop Kershaw tomorrow for another batter. Litsch getting Baltimore at home and Olsen getting Houston at home are other streaming possibilities for Thursday.
Perhaps I should have said supremely optimistic.

Those moves are all solid. I like Litsch tomorrow. Not crazy about Olsen for anything.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Thu Sep 18, 2008 12:15 pm

Update during the day on Thursday, September 18. Games have started for today, so the stats are a bit in flux. The score is 2-8, with me behind. Here is the breakdown:

Rs - 29-23 (I'm losing)
HRs - 10-5 (I'm losing)
RBIs - 24-17 (I'm losing)
SBs - 3-1 (I'm losing)
AVG - .349-.310 (I'm losing)

Ks - 22-24 (I'm winning)
Wins - 2-1 (I'm losing)
Saves - 1-2 (I'm winning)
ERA - 3.63-8.85 (I'm losing)
WHIP - 1.39-1.62 (I'm losing)

So, obviously, I am losing badly. I'm not ready to give up yet, but it's definitely time for me to evaluate my strategy going forward.

Yesterday's performances by Billingsley (6 ERs in 4.2 IPs) and Baker (4 ERs in 4.2 IPS) hurt a lot and put me in a very deep hole, especially considering the deficit that I had already. After doing some math, I've decided that I have no choice but to stream pitchers aggressively going forward. Here's why. As of the end of last night, even assuming that I get two complete game shut-outs from my next two pitchers, my ERA would still be over 5.00. And the chances that I would get two complete game shut-outs are pretty slim. And an ERA over 5.00 would still do me no good. So since I need at least 3 wins in the pitching categories given how behind I am in the batting categories, streaming it is.

More to come...


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