Drinking the Klub-aid won't kill you

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Drinking the Klub-aid won't kill you

Postby hollywoodnights » Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:35 am

I'm writing this because I see way too much concern over Corey Kluber. From when I drafted him until now, his ownership percentage in CBS leagues has gone from 91 to 80, which makes him more or less the same (ownership wise) as Jason Hammel. In some leagues, he still sits on the waiver wire.

I've been as disappointed as everyone with his start to the season, but the general reaction to his start reeks of the classic early-panic button syndrome. If he was injured, I would get it. But let's take a look at the metrics that underlie what you're seeing at face-value.

First off, I've seen a lot of people going onto Fangraphs, taking a look at his velocity numbers, and saying that his velocity is down. It's not. Take a look at his start last night. He hit 93 - 94 mph on his four-seamer all night long. The explanation behind the drop in his velocity is pretty simple: he like to throw his 2-seamer and cut fastball more than his 4-seam fastball. I know this based on the dialogue from an interview he did last season with Carson Cistulli of Fangraphs toward the end of last season. It starts with this:

Carson Cistulli: I think the pitch that you throw most often is a two-seam fastball, yes?

Corey Kluber: Mm-hm.

Now that his drop in velocity has been dispelled, let's look at the deeper numbers. His BABIP his higher than it has been throughout his career (.350), but I'm not one who simply sees a higher BABIP and says he just got unlucky, especially when you consider that his career BABIP is .330. That said, when you look at what he's done thus far with GB and FB percentage, one sees that he's been the same old Corey. He generates a lot of ground-balls and keeps the fly-ball rate at a nice 30 - 33%. When you couple that with a higher BABIP, it's safer to say that he's been unlucky so far this season. On top of that, his K/9 is spot on, and his BB/9 is actually lower than his career average.

Now I'm going to cutback from the Moneyball, SABR fanatic style of analysis to the Three Night in August one. What I see on the field is a pitcher with absolutely filthy stuff. As mentioned, he throws 3 types of FBs, a four-seamer, two-seamer, and cut fastball, all of which he throws for strikes with plus velocity. On top of that, each of his fastballs have great movement, and each has a distinctly unique movement. His motion looks incredibly easy, and the ball really sails across the plate. Now couple that with a changeup and curve that that are equally as effective as his fastball repertoire and you'll really get a sense of why my vascular system pumps blood to my sacred regions when my thoughts turn to him.

Basically, if he's on your waiver wire, pick him up NOW. If he's on another team, keep your fingers crossed that either a) the owner thinks last night's start was a fluke against a Royals team more useless than the Royal family, or b) he follows this start with another mediocre to poor start so you can get him even cheaper.

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JeF With 1 F
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Re: Drinking the Klub-aid won't kill you

Postby JeF With 1 F » Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:32 am

Corey......Is that you?
10 Team, H2H, Dynasty, 7x7, OBP. Holds

C- Evan Gattis
1B- Paul Goldschmidt
2B- Dee Gordon
3B- Miggy/Arenado
SS- Alcides Escobar
MI- B-Rad Miller
CI- Frazier/Arenado
LF- Micheal Brantley
CF- Carlos Gomez
RF- Andrew McCutchen
OF- Justin Upton
Util- Khris Davis
Util- Cory Dickerson
BN - Mookie Betts

SP- Doug Fister
SP- Scott Kazmir
RP- Glen Perkins
RP- Delin Betances
RP- Joakim Soria
RP- Wade Davis
P- Dillon Gee
P- Lance Lynn
P- Doug Fister
P- C,J. Wilson
P- Homer Bailey
P- Alex Wood
P- Zack Wheeler
NA- Tyler Glasnow

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