Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

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Simply Fred
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Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby Simply Fred » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:21 am

From Rudy's http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-sn ... tch-ratio/ :
"The teams who were the 50 heaviest investors in relief pitchers (me – in red – being one of them) averaged 70.7 points (5 above average) while the 50 lightest investors averaged 53.6 points (12 points below average). "
I guess I need to know what 'heaviest investor' means.
I did a quick look at RCL 1st place teams from last year. At this late date I could only cull 7 teams. Of those I found:
They averaged 3.1 SP drafted before their FIRST RP. On average, they didn't draft their first closer until RD 13.1.
(One owner drafted 2 SP before his first closer, RD 8.)
Further, when I run the drop-off from, say a Kimbrel, to a closer I can get RD 13, the loss is mainly in 10 SV and 20 K (equivalent era/whip can be had).
When I run the drop, from say a Gio Gonzalez to a RD 13 SP I lose 50K, 3W, .25ERA.
From the VERY SMALL SAMPLE size of WINNERS, they seem to agree to not take the plunge for an elite closer.
What am I missing?
Please, any top placing owners that invested early in RP weigh in on the advantages.
(Rudy, please hold your comments until we can get a reasonable discussion. Wait to tell me why I am wrong... :D )

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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby Simply Fred » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:23 am

Sorry, I am hitting the road, so awhile before I can weigh in again. Discuss!

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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby jreason11 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:35 am

While I'm not sure about the RCL data, I've been messing around with drafting Bats, RP, SP in that order. I've found in many drafts I can obtain the majority of my SP targets even if I use my first two "pitching" picks on RP. In many drafts, I have used the first 6 rounds to focus on power hitting, followed on 7-8 on high K RP, followed by a mix of SP and speed bats to fill out my roster.

While I'm not sure if this is the route ill end up taking, I have been more than happy with a few of the results.

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C-
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2B-
3B-Machado
SS-
OF- Bautista
OF- Bruce
OF- Rios
OF- Puig
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Bench: Pujols,

SP- Harvey, Miller, Samardzija, Cole
RP-

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Simply Fred
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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby Simply Fred » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:53 am

thanks for feedback! so, i can see where someone like samardzija will give you similar Ks to a Gio, but the 3.88era/1.32whip, for say 200 IP is enough for me to want a Gio. Kimbrel doesn't pitch enough innings to overcome that large an impact, imo...?

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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby lifebass » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:13 pm

when I run the drop-off from, say a Kimbrel, to a closer I can get RD 13, the loss is mainly in 10 SV and 20 K (equivalent era/whip can be had).
When I run the drop, from say a Gio Gonzalez to a RD 13 SP I lose 50K, 3W, .25ERA.
What about the combination split of one vs the other? Whats your IP, ERA, WHIP, K & SV line total comparing RD 8CL + RD13 SP vs RD8 SP vs RD13 CL? Or is that what you're describing above?
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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby lifebass » Wed Feb 19, 2014 12:23 pm

I would gather your IP might be lower, but your ratio stats might be better with more saves. If your IP is lower, your ratios impact overalls less, but since they are better the impact might be negated all while getting more SVs. You would also benefit if there is an IP cap if you're playing a roto league, giving you the opportunity to make up for or gain further ground in K or W
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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby Simply Fred » Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:35 am

Well, Grey pretty unequivocal with his PEDS: "2. Never take a top-tier closer."

Rudy, you want to weigh in?

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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby Simply Fred » Thu Feb 20, 2014 8:48 am

Sorry, Rudy. Just caught your response in the PEDS comments:

"My biggest disagreement is on top-tier closers. If I can get one at solid value, I’m game. Especially in deeper leagues where getting saves in free agency is hell. I also cede that Grey is better than me at getting saves via free agency in shallow leagues. I probably should run the RCL number on this one…"

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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby lifebass » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:06 am

As soon as something gains unanimous backing... you should question that idea even more. ALL of fantasy baseball screams to wait on closers... time to question that idea.

I did some ballpark cals, below are the total lines factoring in impact of ERA/WHIP based on IP weighting, etc. These are not an exact calcs by any means and could be much more accurate... just intended to give a ballpark perspective of the differences.

Top tier closer + ~13th rd starter
265 18 3.14 1.16 270 40

~8th rd starter + ~13th rd closer
270 20 3.25 1.15 260 36

about even IP, slight edge in wins and era to top tier starter, slight edge in ERA, K's, and saves to top tier closer. Honestly I think it comes down to what your goals are and what league you're in. I find it much easier to procure solid starters in a holds league as solid MR's are hard to come by to begin with, not to mention grab one off the wire that ascends to a solid closer. If you're in a roto league that has a season long inning cap, you want better ratios of all stats/IP. Looking at this, I might lean taking a top tier closer depending on where they start flying off the board (dont overpay, zig when everyone zags). Granted I will want to investigate this further with more accurate number crunching but it looks like it depends on philosophy/peripherals (do closers get hurt more than aces? etc) and the type of league you're in.
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Re: Investing in RP: What's YOUR take?

Postby lifebass » Thu Feb 20, 2014 9:08 am

Especially in deeper leagues where getting saves in free agency is hell. "
This
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