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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 2:43 pm
by Eddy
4.60 FIP in away games (6+ ERA)
Forgot to mention that 1) this is for 7/19 and 2) He surrendered 14 ER @COL and @TEX, so that pretty much accounts for his terrible road numbers.

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:10 pm
by Simply Fred
see top for Tilman stream.

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:23 pm
by Simply Fred
An Edsie! Way to dig deeper. That AWAY split had me shelve him. But, you resolved it: @COL, @TEX. He had a 1.99 ERA at home, which isn't that easy to do @HOU. I don't like the number of BB, but @SD let's hope he is a little more confident and just brings it. STREAM! REALLY NICE FIND!

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:38 pm
by King Wank
Okay, I'm sorry to sound stupid. I'm trying to decipher your lead post. Whom are you streaming for 7/17? I can't tell.

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:58 pm
by Awesomus Maximus
McAllister with a W and a QS. Should've stayed with the formula and stayed away from the gut feeling re: Tillman.

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2012 9:03 pm
by JK Smiles
.

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:11 am
by Men-in-Cleats
McAllister with a W and a QS. Should've stayed with the formula and stayed away from the gut feeling re: Tillman.
I did the same thing and started McAllister and Tillman and think the lesson there is that Tillman just didn't have the recent track record to justify it, even if he has the weak matchup and decent pedigree.

I must say that I have in the past utilized streaming on occasion by picking up the occasional hodgepadre or decent starter with a weak matchup in a good park but will probably do a bit more of it since my starters have been so unreliable (I'm talking to you Mr. Lester). We have an innings limit that is relatively low but it should allow me to be more choosy when I trot out my regular starters. Especially in weeks like this one where my typical guys have some questionable matchups. It allowed me to sit Lester vs. the Yanks this last weekend and instead go with Richards and Griffin and end up with a lot better stats than what Jonny boy would have gotten me. I streamed those two last night since Latos this week vs. AZ at home is a touch risky after he got roughed up a bit last time out. He's been a better pitcher on the road than at home so will definitely be more choosy whom I play him against. I'm not ready to do the extensive streaming strategy but will definitely use it in conjunction with my starters/relievers. It is always easier to find good pitching off of the WW than it is to find good hitting and one should definitely take advantage of that if one can.

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:28 am
by huntrusty
Vogelsong @ ATL?

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:28 am
by snky allgtr
So Niese was dropped in my league after his last start, I am trying to apply your system to see if he is a start @ WAS tonight...

WAS:
21st home/ 14th vs LHP


Niese:
33% o-Swing
away ERA 3.38
night ERA 5.08
vs WAS ERA 1.46 (2011)
7 ER in 7 IP vs CHC last outing

with no heads up matches yet this year, I grabbed 2011 stats and they look good. Problem (or problems) is, he got rocked last outing by a crappy team, WAS is 14th in OPS vs LHP, and Niese's night ERA is bad.

So would you recommend a SIT?

and PS, where do I find SIERA on fangraphs?

Thank you so much!

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:37 am
by bearwah
Niese: 2012 SIERA 3.66. 30-day SIERA 4.07. FYI, 30-day O-Swing is at 36.1%.

I'm certainly not the expert on this, but what I've read from Fred, the point is to avoid risk, not just minimize it. And even one or two red flags (WASH OPS 11th vs LHP, rocked in last outing) would indicate risk.